2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

[duncan_idaho]

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[WhawhaWhat]

Joel Goldberg ‏@goldbergkc
Lorenzo Cain fine during BP yesterday but tightness in groin when warming up in 8th. Day to day, no DL situation as of now

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I tried to trade him to you fellas at the start of the season for a reliever or SS prospect but was advised by Duncan that he's no better than Christian Colon and by the rest of the Royals homers that he's not worth a bucket of piss.

I also tried to trade you guys Allen Craig for Herrerra and Collins and was also told that the Royals would be stupid to make such a move. I was about to murder Mitchell Boggs and would've given my first-born for a legitimate closer option at the time.

You guys really are half-crazy sometimes. It's not Orioles-fans bad, but it's pretty bad.

You also realize that you asked for those trades a week into the season. I still don't think much of Wong personally - I'm not a big fan of his. Didn't care for him at all when I watched him play in Springfield. Also asking for Herrera that early when he was flat out nasty the year before and Holland was a bullseye for lots of idiots at that time was going to get a negative reaction.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Joel Goldberg ‏@goldbergkc
Lorenzo Cain fine during BP yesterday but tightness in groin when warming up in 8th. Day to day, no DL situation as of now

Oh, FFS.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Houston got a AAA 2B/OF hitting over .300, 19 year old, single A pitcher and the #35ish overall pick in next years draft from the O's for Bud Norris.

Oh, man. This means O's fans can't make Hoes the center of any ridiculous trade offers anymore.

Also... Bud Norris... AL East. Camden Yards. Sure THAT will be pretty!

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Sure, I think Wong will be a very valuable and solid major league player. Comparing him to Infante was not intended as a slight.

I do think he has gotten a little overrated by both fanbases. The Cards fans on here are not so out of control, but I know some in other forums who seem to think Wong is going to be Rod Carew or something.

Royals fans have kind of done the same thing. I think ultimately he's a good MLB player who has a long career but is never really a STAR player.

He's likely a guy that would be about the 7th-9th best 2B in baseball. May get on an odd All-Star team during a career year, but a dependable, solid player.

He's in a weird spot. Matt Carpenter does not have enough power in his bat (15 HR) to truly hold down a corner spot, so shifting him to third to open a spot for Wong doesn't make a lot of sense, especially given that Carpenter is the #2 2B in baseball this year.

I'd be fine with trading Wong and a potential #4 starter or even a bullpen power arm for Wong's equivalent at short.

[Prison Bitch]

Ok so Hererra+Collins 2.6 WAR last year vs. 2.8 for Craig so it's not absurd why anyone would or would not do that trade since it's a wash at the time. Saying someone is "dumb" in hindsight for that is a bit much.

In addition DJs also said he didn't want Greg Holland. Lulz. Which knowing what we know today, is pretty damn funny.

[Mama Hip Rockets]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Interested to see who the Royals put through waivers now. Hochevar, Chen, Santana?

Pleeeeeeeease Elliot Johnson

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I said Mondesi or Calixte. I knew you guys probably wouldn't hav egiven Mondesi for him, but Calixte seemed totally fair. At this point, however, I don't think I'd send him for Calixte. That K rate is terrifying.

I'd give you Bobby Wagner for Wong and a swift kick to Hamas' Wong.

[siberian khatru]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/royal...ay-real-price/


Royals Acquire Decent Platoon Outfielder, Pay Real Price

by Dave Cameron - July 31, 2013

Not only are the Royals not sellers, they’ve actually made a prospect-for-veteran swap on deadline day. To help shore up their right field situation, they sent RHP Kyle Smith to the Astros in exchange for outfielder Justin Maxwell.

Maxwell is a solid role player, athletic enough to play all three outfield spots and with enough ability to provide some offensive value. In 763 big league plate appearances, he’s posted a .319 wOBA/97 wRC+, and UZR/DRS have liked his defensive contributions as well. Add it all up, and he’s racked up +3.8 WAR in just over a full season’s worth of playing time.

However, that’s a very defense-heavy number, and we’re dealing with 1,500 innings of outfield play from a 29-year-old. You have to regress his expected defensive contributions a good deal, which is why both ZIPS and Steamer forecast him to be roughly an average defender over the rest of the season. It doesn’t kill Maxwell’s value entirely, but he’s very unlikely to continue to produce at a +3 WAR per season pace.

Still, Maxwell definitely has his uses. He’s mashed left-handers to this point in his career, he’s a good baserunner, and as part of a platoon with David Lough, the Royals could actually get some real production in right field over the rest of the season. He’s probably not an everyday guy, but there’s skills here, and if used correctly, he can help the Royals.

Unfortunately, these are the kinds of pieces you like to add for little cost. Casper Wells, for instance, is a very similar player, and he was passed around on waivers for the first few months of the season. The Nationals acquired Scott Hairston for low-level pitching prospect Ivan Pineyro. The Indians signed Ryan Raburn to a minor league contract over the winter. Lefty mashing OFs aren’t that hard to find, nor are they usually all that expensive.

However, to get Maxwell, the Royals gave up Kyle Smith, who Marc Hulet rated as their #10 prospect heading into the season. Smith has been excellent in high-A Wilmington this year, and is probably not far away from being ready for Double-A. He’s undersized, but the stuff and the results are there, and the Astros are clearly not shy about taking chances on short dudes who can play.

Smith isn’t any kind of elite prospect and might turn out to be nothing in the long run, but this seems like another example of the Royals paying an above market cost for a useful player that won’t actually help them enough for his presence to matter much. With or without Maxwell, the Royals aren’t going to the postseason this year, so at best, he pushes them a little closer to .500. Meanwhile, similar players are going to be outrighted off 40-man rosters this winter, and so while Maxwell is under team control for several more years, the future value he will provide could have been replicated without actually giving up a prospect at the deadline.

It’s not a backbreaker, and perhaps Maxwell will turn into more of a regular contributor than the short half of a job share, but this still seems like a bit of an odd maneuver for the Royals. This is the kind of trade that a contender makes to get their roster ready for postseason play. The Royals would like to be the team making those kinds of moves, but making those kinds of moves doesn’t make you a contender.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

i was really hoping we would try send a pitcher to the Cardinals for Wong.

position of need and a young guy


I thought the Cardinals wanted some pitching help


instead they pretty much did nothing

Doing nothing was the right move for the Cardinals because the cost of doing business was ridiculous.

Giving up 10-12 WAR of Wong (and likely more) for 2 months of Santana would be asinine. Other than Santana, who else would you give up that could actually help the Cardinals right now?

[Discuss Thrower]

I just want to make sure Hamas knows that Crow only has two pitches.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Ok so Hererra+Collins 2.6 WAR last year vs. 2.8 for Craig so it's not absurd why anyone would or would not do that trade since it's a wash at the time. Saying someone is "dumb" in hindsight for that is a bit much.

In addition DJs also said he didn't want Greg Holland. Lulz. Which knowing what we know today, is pretty damn funny.

Two players with the same cumulative WAR as one player is not a wash, because you are taking up two roster spots, and the second roster spot is usually filled with someone better than replacement level. If not, he'd be in AAA.

Oh and 2013:

Holland+Herrera: 1.5 WAR
Holland+Collins: 2.2 WAR
Collins+Herrera: 0.1 WAR

Meanwhile:

Mujica+Rosenthal: 2.2 WAR
Allen Craig: 1.8 WAR

I think we'll be fine.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

I just want to make sure Hamas knows that Crow only has two pitches.

I'm trying to figure out how no one in the Royals organization could teach him how to throw a changeup. FWIW, he actually has three pitches. Ten percent of the time he throws a two-seamer.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/royal...ay-real-price/


Royals Acquire Decent Platoon Outfielder, Pay Real Price

by Dave Cameron - July 31, 2013

Not only are the Royals not sellers, they’ve actually made a prospect-for-veteran swap on deadline day. To help shore up their right field situation, they sent RHP Kyle Smith to the Astros in exchange for outfielder Justin Maxwell.

Maxwell is a solid role player, athletic enough to play all three outfield spots and with enough ability to provide some offensive value. In 763 big league plate appearances, he’s posted a .319 wOBA/97 wRC+, and UZR/DRS have liked his defensive contributions as well. Add it all up, and he’s racked up +3.8 WAR in just over a full season’s worth of playing time.

However, that’s a very defense-heavy number, and we’re dealing with 1,500 innings of outfield play from a 29-year-old. You have to regress his expected defensive contributions a good deal, which is why both ZIPS and Steamer forecast him to be roughly an average defender over the rest of the season. It doesn’t kill Maxwell’s value entirely, but he’s very unlikely to continue to produce at a +3 WAR per season pace.

Still, Maxwell definitely has his uses. He’s mashed left-handers to this point in his career, he’s a good baserunner, and as part of a platoon with David Lough, the Royals could actually get some real production in right field over the rest of the season. He’s probably not an everyday guy, but there’s skills here, and if used correctly, he can help the Royals.

Unfortunately, these are the kinds of pieces you like to add for little cost. Casper Wells, for instance, is a very similar player, and he was passed around on waivers for the first few months of the season. The Nationals acquired Scott Hairston for low-level pitching prospect Ivan Pineyro. The Indians signed Ryan Raburn to a minor league contract over the winter. Lefty mashing OFs aren’t that hard to find, nor are they usually all that expensive.

However, to get Maxwell, the Royals gave up Kyle Smith, who Marc Hulet rated as their #10 prospect heading into the season. Smith has been excellent in high-A Wilmington this year, and is probably not far away from being ready for Double-A. He’s undersized, but the stuff and the results are there, and the Astros are clearly not shy about taking chances on short dudes who can play.

Smith isn’t any kind of elite prospect and might turn out to be nothing in the long run, but this seems like another example of the Royals paying an above market cost for a useful player that won’t actually help them enough for his presence to matter much. With or without Maxwell, the Royals aren’t going to the postseason this year, so at best, he pushes them a little closer to .500. Meanwhile, similar players are going to be outrighted off 40-man rosters this winter, and so while Maxwell is under team control for several more years, the future value he will provide could have been replicated without actually giving up a prospect at the deadline.

It’s not a backbreaker, and perhaps Maxwell will turn into more of a regular contributor than the short half of a job share, but this still seems like a bit of an odd maneuver for the Royals. This is the kind of trade that a contender makes to get their roster ready for postseason play. The Royals would like to be the team making those kinds of moves, but making those kinds of moves doesn’t make you a contender.

I'm not a big fan of Cameron. He's like Keith Law before he learned that sabremetrics aren't the ONLY measure you need to look at.

It's the certainty with which he delivers his opinions that causes the real problem for me. He's so sure his statistical analyses are correct... and they're often not.

I don't think anyone bashed Ervin Santana more than Cameron, and he refused to look at splits or any late-season trends on the guy. He was convinced he'd be just as bad this year and also get injured.

I can't throw stones on his eval of Smith, but he should take a look at what scouts said about him before he goes on much more. Kind of a game changer when every prominent minor league guy is talking about Smith as a fringe/longshot whose stuff doesn't match his numbers.

[DeezNutz]

OK, I looked back at the Craig discussion and I feel a little better about my stance. Essentially, I argued that DM went all-in on winning now with the Myers trade, and thus we couldn't trade substance from the ML roster that would negatively affect the team.

Currently, I'd probably reevaluate my stance with KH because Davis needs to move to the pen, thus giving us a little more flexibility without weakening the back end.