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11-13-2018, 03:37 PM | #1 | |
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His ceiling is what we've seen this season (this is a career year for him, IMO), and what he's been this season is far more than quality depth. He's been genuinely great this year. And you don't have to trust the stats on their face - simply look at the company he's keeping. He's on lists with the guys that people would kill to acquire; the Patrick Peterson's and Chris Harris Jrs. Fitzpatrick was a high 1st round pick who's looked as good this year as Lattimore looked last year. This is high company he's keeping, man. At some point you have to give something some weight. If it's not PFF or production in coverage, at the very least you have to consider him relative to his peers and right now his peer group is among the best in the league. So to say his 'ceiling' is quality depth is simply objectively disprovable.
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11-13-2018, 03:40 PM | #2 | |
pie is never free
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11-13-2018, 03:47 PM | #3 | |
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Sure, you can adjust his 'top quartile of probable outcomes' or something like that, but for 10 games the dude has played like one of the top 5-10 CBs in the league. I don't care if he gets his ass beaten like a rented mule for the rest of the season, that damn sure doesn't change the fact that he's proven his 'ceiling' to be far more than quality depth. Especially not when he was a one of the better slot corners in football in 2016 before we asked him to bite off more than he could chew in 2017. You're just not being fair here and that's coming from one of the people has has been most critical of Nelson to this point.
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11-13-2018, 03:56 PM | #4 |
pie is never free
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Players get hot for a while and then tail off all of the time
I'm not sold on him as a long-term answer, at all... if he is still starting here next year, I'll gladly eat humble pie |
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11-13-2018, 04:00 PM | #5 | |
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Still doesn't mean that his ceiling is quality depth. He's proven that it isn't. His ceiling, if he plays to it, is a top tier NFL starter. I just don't think he'll play to it. Again - completely different conversations.
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11-13-2018, 04:04 PM | #6 | |
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I thought he was the answer.
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11-13-2018, 04:07 PM | #7 |
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11-13-2018, 04:22 PM | #8 |
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Terrance Mitchell looked like a solid starting CB for about 3 games. He had one fantastic game, a solid game or two and then was just there. He was never showing up on the 'best CBs in football' lists.
Warmer; better and for longer. But Cooper started showing drop off pretty quickly as well. Moreover, he didn't have an entire season at the level Nelson had in 2016. Nelson demonstrated a full season as a 'starting' caliber Nickel CB in 2016 - that's more than Cooper or Mitchell ever showed. Then this year he's gone wire to wire as not just a credible complementary corner (which is the lense we were looking at Mitchell and Cooper through) but as a genuinely excellent starting guy. Nelson has played at a quality NFL player level for much longer, he's hit a higher peak and he's held it for much longer than either Cooper or Mitchell. And again - that's not to say that I believe this is his new normal. I don't trust him any more than most to keep it up. I just think it's wildly unfair to simply hand waive 10 weeks of damn good football as 'credible depth'. You're ignoring what he's done in favor of what you thought he'd do. That's how Matt Cassel's happen...
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