Mellinger: Now is the time for Chiefs to make bold move at QB

[Tribal Warfare]

Now is the time for Chiefs to make bold move at QB
By SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star

The old personnel man wants a promise you won’t use his name. He will talk to you, and say exactly what he thinks, but doesn’t want to be the one using a public forum like the local newspaper to tell Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli how to do his job.

It’s just that the man spent a few decades being paid to evaluate NFL talent and he can’t look at the Chiefs without seeing what he thinks is obvious.

“They need a quarterback,” the man says. “Matt Cassel is fine, but look at the league now, the way things are, you need to do better than Matt Cassel. At least bring in someone to compete.”

This is the Chiefs’ major decision now. It is real, even if the decision-makers are maintaining their usual silence. Cassel is the incumbent, and there are no indications that the most important opinions on him are wavering.

But the costs of moving on have never been lower, the potential benefits never been higher, and the timing never better. The easy thing is to see that the Chiefs need to get better at quarterback.

The harder thing is thinking through the options and making the necessary sacrifices.

• • •

That whole Suck For Luck thing is nonsense. A nonstarter. NFL teams don’t throw seasons, and they certainly don’t make progress by throwing seasons.

But right now, it’s impossible not to think about it.

Because the Chiefs will own the 11th or 12th pick in April’s draft — it’ll be decided by a coin flip with Seattle — and that’s just too far to trade into the first (Andrew Luck) or second (Robert Griffin III) pick. Whatever chance the Chiefs had to draft one of this class’ premier quarterbacks died when they won seven games.

Shawn Zobel, who runs DraftHeadquarters.com, thinks a realistic framework for the Chiefs to move into the No. 2 pick would be roughly what Atlanta gave up last year to move from No. 27 to No. 6 in order to take Julio Jones: two first-round picks, one second, and two fourths.

The NFL’s new CBA includes cost-control on rookies, plus the Browns have extra picks from the trade with Atlanta, so it would be an enormous stretch for the Chiefs to make the best offer. Either way, it would be a staggering haul that didn’t help the Falcons, plus left them without a first- or fourth-round pick this year.

Griffin’s potential is real, but the Chiefs have too many other needs — starting with an offensive line that needs to get both younger and better — to do that. Besides, trading up is entirely out of Pioli’s track record.

We also know that re-signing Kyle Orton is both uncertain (he’ll have other options) and entirely inadequate. That leaves two options for a bold move: take a quarterback with the first-round pick, or go big with someone else’s quarterback.

A first-round pick probably means Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. He’s a former wide receiver with only a season and a half as a starting quarterback, so he’s raw, especially with quarterback intricacies like pre-snap reads and progressing through receivers. He recently broke his foot but is expected to recover.

The last option is the one that makes the most sense. Peyton Manning is the sexy name, of course, and the obvious and sad irony is that the Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since the last time they brought in someone else’s aching Hall of Fame quarterback, Joe Montana.

Manning would be a no-brainer, both in terms of football and public relations. The problem is the list of what would have to happen — his neck fully heals, the Colts let him go, and he decides he wants to play somewhere else — is wrought with uncertainty.

The positive is that the Chiefs are in a place to offer Manning a talented roster with a coaching staff that could still be suited to him and a presumably winnable division.

Matt Flynn is the best free agent, though the Packers could use the franchise tag to keep him as their backup. Flynn drove up his price by throwing for six touchdowns and a franchise-record 480 yards in the season finale against Detroit, and was also good (24 of 37 passing, 251 yards, three touchdowns and an interception) in his one start last season.

But here’s the irony: his profile is an awful lot like Matt Cassel’s was three years ago. Both are career backups to Hall of Famers. Both have benefitted from being in wildly successful systems. Flynn will be 27 when the season begins, just like Cassel was when he began with the Chiefs.

It’s a small sample, but perhaps instructive that of two NFL personnel men who spoke for this column, one said he liked Cassel more three years ago than he likes Flynn now.

That’s OK. There aren’t many certainties in the NFL, but here’s one: the Chiefs are in a promising place that can best be ruined by lacking the guts to do something bold.

• • •

The advantage the Chiefs have in searching for a better quarterback situation is in timing first, and resources second.

Romeo Crennel hasn’t hired an offensive coordinator, or even given much of an indication on which coaches will be back. That gives him an opportunity to sync the new staff with whatever decision is made about the quarterback.

Acquiring someone else’s quarterback — Manning or Flynn — comes with an added benefit. The Chiefs have plenty of salary-cap space, and could structure any deal in such a way to make the most out of the league-mandated spending minimum that begins in the 2013 season.

The quote at the top of this column is a pretty good summation. Cassel is fine. He’s had four seasons as a starting quarterback. Twice he won 10 games, once he played for a team that had no chance, and the other he got hurt.

But this narrative from the Chiefs that Cassel is young and developing needs to stop. He turns 30 in May. He’s started 54 games. Rookies are coming into the NFL ready.

Cassel told The Star last week he wouldn’t mind if the Chiefs made him compete for the job. Nothing that happened last season indicates that competition would come from Ricky Stanzi.

The Chiefs have the chassis for a good football team, now and into the future. Much of that is because of the improvement of players such as Tamba Hali and Jamaal Charles and Pioli’s ability to sign them long-term.

Since Pioli took over three years ago, two of the most consistent limits on the team have been his unwillingness to make bold personnel acquisitions and the quarterback.

This offseason presents the perfect chance to change that.

[O.city]

I'd start with this years and next years 1 and 3, go from there.


If I had to I'd trade the whole draft to get Luck if I had to. I'm also not really sure that Luck wants to go to Indy to sit behind Manning. I think papa Luck is gonna say no thanks, thus reducing the haul the Manninngs could get for that pick.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

Because Cassel had his opportunity. Every one with a brain can see that Cassel is not championship quality, yet we still keep him as our starter. He shouldn't even be on the team anymore. Pioli made a mistake. And he's afraid to admit he was wrong on this one.

Huh? After last season, not that many people had a problem with him being our starter. Im betting that you were one of them. You don't know whether pioli will retain him at starter or not.

And Pioli admitted his mistake on Haley who was his first move when he was named GM so why wouldn't he admit his mistake on Cassel?
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[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'd start with this years and next years 1 and 3, go from there.


If I had to I'd trade the whole draft to get Luck if I had to. I'm also not really sure that Luck wants to go to Indy to sit behind Manning. I think papa Luck is gonna say no thanks, thus reducing the haul the Manninngs could get for that pick.

If Cleveland, Washington, and Miami are in the mix (and I imagine they all will be), it's going to take a hell of a lot more than that.

For example, if we're competing with Cleveland, we'd basically have to match their offer AND trade up from 12 to 4. So if Cleveland offers next year's first plus an extra pick, which I imagine is table stakes, that means the Chiefs have to offer up two firsts, and either an additional first or a second round pick + an additional pick (that Cleveland would have offered).

Especially if Indy decides to go with Luck, which I believe they will, I think RGIII is going to be way too costly to trade up for.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by ForeverChiefs58

No one really knows as obvious from the very next day this comes out too:

Report: 49ers, Seahawks & Cardinals Possible Trade Destinations for Manning

According to Jason LaCanfora of the NFL Network, general managers and people close to Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning don’t see him going to the Jets if he does end up leaving Indy in the offseason.

If Manning ends up being available via trade, the teams that GM’s around the NFL see as potential landing spots are the 49ers, Seahawks and the Cardinals.

We mentioned a report last night that linked Manning and Colts center Jeff Saturday to the Redskins if he ends up getting released.

If the Colts do end up moving on from Manning, he’ll have plenty of teams to choose from.

http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/ar...anning/9343955

Any "expert" that talks about Manning being traded is an idiot. The Colts take a $30 million cap hit to trade him and have to pay the $28 million bonus themselves.

[O.city]

Probably true zilla.


Gotta look at some other things tho. Matt Flynn is probably going to be a quarterback for one of those teams, Manning could be a quarterback for one of those teams.

Things could fall in a ton of different places.

[SAUTO]

Two first s a second and two fourths was suggested somewhere, same as atl. In the 20 s to 6th last year.

I would do that deal for either one
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[whoman69]

I love how the article states that its time to make a move to get a QB then states all the options are essentially closed, and that in any case Cassel will be still waiting there.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by -King-

Huh? After last season, not that many people had a problem with him being our starter.[/i][/size]

Most people did. The smart fans knew Cassel wasn't the answer.

Im betting that you were one of them.

Absolutely not. Why would you make assumptions like that.

You don't know whether pioli will retain him at starter or not.

True. But at this point Cassel is his guy, and I've seen nothing to tell me otherwise.

And Pioli admitted his mistake on Haley who was his first move when he was named GM so why wouldn't he admit his mistake on Cassel?

Because he put 60 million dollars into Cassel, and Pioli doesn't have a personal problem with Cassel like he did with Haley.

[ForeverChiefs58]

The Value of Andrew Luck


Peter King estimated in his most recent Monday Morning Quarterback column that the top spot in the 2012 NFL Draft could fetch at least three first-round picks, and possibly more. Adam Schefter at ESPN speculated on Luck's potential trade value prior to Week 16:

If somehow the Colts win a game and the Rams don't, then that pick, for the Rams franchise, would be worth, roughly worth, three (first-round picks) and two (second-rounders), maybe four first-round picks. And so there's a huge amount at stake if somehow the Colts -- who will continue to try to win games -- win another game, the Rams lose their two games and somehow come up with that pick.

For a franchise like the Rams or the Colts, that's a lucrative deal that could replenish a roster in need of more talent at almost every position, an instant franchise rebuild in one convenient package.

Which teams might be in the mix to trade up for Andrew Luck?

Cleveland Browns - It's funny to think about Cleveland again being involved in a significant draft day trade. This time, of course, they would be the ones moving up in the first round. Unlike the other teams who could use Luck, Cleveland has the ability to pay cash on the barrelhead with two first-round picks in 2012. Colt McCoy may very well be an acceptable solution, but Andrew Luck would finally put the Browns on the road to relevancy. They would still need some offensive players to go with Luck, but the free agent market might provide that.

Washington Redskins - Mike Shanahan sure misses John Elway, and this might be his chance to reunite with him in spirit. Washington is desperate and crazy enough to trade away the deed to their house for this pick. They also have a fairly talented roster which would help pay immediate dividends.

Miami Dolphins - Miami got a jump start on changes there by firing Tony Sparano before the end of the season. They need a quick turnaround. The Fins also have some talent on their roster to pair with Luck right away, including Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall.

Seattle Seahawks - Pete Carroll's team gets thrown into the Andrew Luck conversation, and they could certainly use a quarterback. If the Rams ended up with the first pick, would they be willing to make a deal with a division rival? They might be more inclined to take a shot at Robert Griffin III, the Andrew Luck consolation prize.

Those four teams are the most obvious suitors, but don't rule out a surprise entrant. The Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets and even the Denver Broncos could make the case for grabbing Luck.

The Super Bowl, free agency...it's all just a matinee to the 2012 NFL Draft and the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

[KCrockaholic]

I'd do it. Give them 3 1st. And call it a deal. Make sure our scouts dig deep in future years to find some talent.

[ForeverChiefs58]

All you have to do is look at the Herschel Walker trade. The Cowboys traded Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for a total of five players (LB Jesse Solomon, DB Issiac Holt, RB Darrin Nelson, LB David Howard, DE Alex Stewart) and six draft picks (which led to Emmitt Smith, Russell Maryland, Kevin Smith, and Darren Woodson). The trade turned the Cowboys into a dynasty, and left the Vikings with a lot of regret.

[ForeverChiefs58]

I could see the Broncos trying to trade Tebow (since his stock is so high right now) and draft picks. I would be so pissed if it was them

[O.city]

IMO the draft is set up like this. For the most part, you get stars in the first round. Some in the second round if you are lucky.

The Chiefs right now, have stars. They need depth everywhere. Of course you can never have to many stars, but you tend to need a star at the quarterback position as that can cover alot of deficiencies.

[KCrockaholic]

Originally Posted by ForeverChiefs58

All you have to do is look at the Herschel Walker trade. The Cowboys traded Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for a total of five players (LB Jesse Solomon, DB Issiac Holt, RB Darrin Nelson, LB David Howard, DE Alex Stewart) and six draft picks (which led to Emmitt Smith, Russell Maryland, Kevin Smith, and Darren Woodson). The trade turned the Cowboys into a dynasty, and left the Vikings with a lot of regret.

Franchise QB>Great RB

And it's not even close.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by ForeverChiefs58

All you have to do is look at the Herschel Walker trade. The Cowboys traded Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for a total of five players (LB Jesse Solomon, DB Issiac Holt, RB Darrin Nelson, LB David Howard, DE Alex Stewart) and six draft picks (which led to Emmitt Smith, Russell Maryland, Kevin Smith, and Darren Woodson). The trade turned the Cowboys into a dynasty, and left the Vikings with a lot of regret.

This is a little different situation.

I'd argue that Luck would be worth more to the Chiefs franchiese than those picks added together.

He could make the Chiefs relevant in the power changing AFC for 15 years.