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Old 09-08-2010, 08:14 PM  
CaliforniaChief CaliforniaChief is offline
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Challenging Conventional Football Wisdom
I'm dying for football to start. But while I wait, I was thinking about a situation I saw in a game recently and have seen more than once.

Team A leads Team B 21-20 late in the fourth. They score a touchdown to go ahead 27-20. Conventional wisdom is that Team A goes for the extra point and takes an 8 point lead.

The thinking is obvious. You take the sure point and force the other team into a situation where they can only tie the game and send it into overtime.

I think they should go for 2. If they get it, they take a 2 possession lead. (29-20) If they don't get it, they're still up by 7 and if the other team scores a TD they would likely take the 1 point and go for the tie anyways.

It just seems to me that the right play is to try and put the game away...and if you fail, you're basically in the same spot you would be if you went for 1 in that the other team would be trying to tie it up.

Again, I apologize for the mundane thread but I've seen this situation many times and wonder if any of you think the same way.

What do you think about this? What are other pieces of conventional football wisdom you would challenge?
Last edited by CaliforniaChief; 09-08-2010 at 08:21 PM..
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:18 PM   #2
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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I've always thought that all the division games should be played the second half of the season after teams have had their injuries and have become who they really are. This would let the teams continue to experiment a little more the first half and then the second half of the season would be more exciting. what ya think about that ?
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:20 PM   #3
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I think they're trying to move towards that, aren't they?
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:26 PM   #4
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Personally I agree with you
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:40 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
I think they're trying to move towards that, aren't they?
Yeah , I guess so. That's why we're playing the Chargers in the opener.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:44 PM   #6
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Yeah , I guess so. That's why we're playing the Chargers in the opener.
They probably didn't think we were much of a factor when making that choice. Plus, us being on MNF was a favor to the Hunt Family. I didn't really check but heard they were trying to (or maybe just thinking of) doing it.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:45 PM   #7
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Prevent defense.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:47 PM   #8
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tactically, I agree.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:48 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
They probably didn't think we were much of a factor when making that choice. Plus, us being on MNF was a favor to the Hunt Family. I didn't really check but heard they were trying to (or maybe just thinking of) doing it.
It's obvious Goodell reads CP as I've brought this up several times.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:49 PM   #10
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There are a lot of failed 2 point conversions so I think coaches take the chance of having the other team try for the 2 pt conversion.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:50 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by keg in kc View Post
Prevent defense.
Absolutely agree with you. Unless you're up by 3 possessions with less than 2 minutes left. Even the preseason game against Philly. We sacked their QB and were in his face all night long. We drop into a prevent zone late and they march right down the field.

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It's obvious Goodell reads CP as I've brought this up several times.
He evidently got Haley's memo too. I agree with you, bro.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:55 PM   #12
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Really it comes down to two things:

1. Can the coach take the heat for the absolute BEATING he will get if the 2 point conversion fails, and the other team ties it up? You may laugh, but it's no joke. Belichick went for the 4th down conversion instead of punting to Indy last year, and I was 100% on board with him, and he's a 3 time SB winning coach, and yet he got murdered for what I thought was obviously the correct call. Our defense wasnt' going to stop the Colts. They had like 3 minutes and 2 timeouts or something, and our defense had basically already proven they couldn't stop him. The odds of the Pats converting the 1st down were MUCH higher than the odds of the Pats stopping the Colts offense. And yet the mediots ripped BB apart. Not many coaches can take that kind of heat and not care.

2. How does the HC feel about your odds of converting the 2 point conversion versus how does the HC feel about the other teams odds of converting THEIR 2 point conversion? A team with a great defense probably kicks teh PAT regardless. A team with a great offense may well go for 2 and try to make it a 2 score game.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:57 PM   #13
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Only time prevent defense works is under 30 seconds with the defense having 80+ yards to go.
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Old 09-08-2010, 08:58 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
I'm dying for football to start. But while I wait, I was thinking about a situation I saw in a game recently and have seen more than once.

Team A leads Team B 21-20 late in the fourth. They score a touchdown to go ahead 27-20. Conventional wisdom is that Team A goes for the extra point and takes an 8 point lead.

The thinking is obvious. You take the sure point and force the other team into a situation where they can only tie the game and send it into overtime.

I think they should go for 2. If they get it, they take a 2 possession lead. (29-20) If they don't get it, they're still up by 7 and if the other team scores a TD they would likely take the 1 point and go for the tie anyways.

It just seems to me that the right play is to try and put the game away...and if you fail, you're basically in the same spot you would be if you went for 1 in that the other team would be trying to tie it up.

Again, I apologize for the mundane thread but I've seen this situation many times and wonder if any of you think the same way.

What do you think about this? What are other pieces of conventional football wisdom you would challenge?
Completely agree.

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Old 09-08-2010, 09:02 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Really it comes down to two things:

1. Can the coach take the heat for the absolute BEATING he will get if the 2 point conversion fails, and the other team ties it up? You may laugh, but it's no joke. Belichick went for the 4th down conversion instead of punting to Indy last year, and I was 100% on board with him, and he's a 3 time SB winning coach, and yet he got murdered for what I thought was obviously the correct call. Our defense wasnt' going to stop the Colts. They had like 3 minutes and 2 timeouts or something, and our defense had basically already proven they couldn't stop him. The odds of the Pats converting the 1st down were MUCH higher than the odds of the Pats stopping the Colts offense. And yet the mediots ripped BB apart. Not many coaches can take that kind of heat and not care.

2. How does the HC feel about your odds of converting the 2 point conversion versus how does the HC feel about the other teams odds of converting THEIR 2 point conversion? A team with a great defense probably kicks teh PAT regardless. A team with a great offense may well go for 2 and try to make it a 2 score game.
Some great points. There are certainly variables that complicate the situation and ultimate decision. The '10 Chiefs might do better to put it in the hands of their defense on a 2 point play, whereas the '03 Chiefs would have been better to trust the offense.

I initially thought Belichick was an idiot for doing what he did in that game (probably because of what the media did with it), but it did make a lot of sense considering the inevitability of a Colts score.
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