Poop Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

Buzzsaw · 11-04-2010, 01:32 PM

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Code:

AFC West
Team	Rec	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
KC	5-2	29.2%	11.4	19.1%	24.9%	23.2%	25.5%	0.5%	1.0%	92.7%	44.0%	1.5%	94.2%	0.4%
SD	3-5	17.0%	8.0	0.0%	0.6%	1.4%	2.9%	1.8%	7.3%	4.9%	0.7%	9.1%	14.0%	4.0%
OAK	4-4	-9.1%	7.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	1.6%	2.3%	0.2%	1.9%	4.2%	2.3%
DEN	2-6	-24.2%	4.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

Code:

 Conf App  Conf Win    SB Win
NYG	50.3%	30.6%	16.0%
KC	43.1%	23.6%	13.1%
NE	41.1%	22.1%	12.0%
PIT	36.6%	19.4%	10.4%
PHI	32.7%	18.8%	10.3%
ATL	46.0%	22.5%	9.6%
GB	30.7%	14.4%	6.5%
TEN	18.3%	8.8%	5.0%
IND	17.2%	7.8%	3.8%
NYJ	17.7%	8.0%	3.7%
NO	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%
BAL	14.2%	5.8%	2.6%
MIA	5.7%	2.4%	1.2%
TB	6.8%	2.0%	0.7%
SEA	6.6%	1.9%	0.6%
SD	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
HOU	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
SF	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
WAS	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%
CHI	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
STL	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
MIN	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
DET	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
OAK	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
ARI	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
JAC	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
CLE	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
CIN	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 01:33 PM

Stating the obvious.

How's our balls taste AFCW?...

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Stating the obvious.

How's our balls taste AFCW?...

LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber. It means you're the shiniest piece of ****ing shit in the pile of shit. Point is: you're still shit.

EDIT: Oh I would say this about Oakland also.... in fact, I already have.

Fumblerooski · 11-04-2010, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber. It means you're the shiniest piece of ****ing shit in the pile of shit. Point is: you're still shit.

EDIT: Oh I would say this about Oakland also.... in fact, I already have.

So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber.

Yeah, douche, that's exactly what it means...

**Gadzooks** · 11-04-2010, 01:41 PM

The Chargers will the division again this year. They're very sneaky, (ask the Donk fans).

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

The Chargers will the division again this year.

Will they the whole thing?...

TheGuardian · 11-04-2010, 01:44 PM

Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGuardian

Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.

I see 6.

Tomato, tomatoe...

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fumblerooskie

So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?

If you don't understand the difference and cannot comprehend it using my example, I don't feel that further explanation will help.

**Gadzooks** · 11-04-2010, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Will they the whole thing?...

But, of course.

Hydrae · 11-04-2010, 01:47 PM

Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium.

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium.

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

sportsman1 · 11-04-2010, 01:51 PM

This seems like a bad omen. However it sure beats backing into the playoffs like the herminator did. If we can get the monkey off our back and beat the streak and atleast win a first or second round game.. I would feel immensely better.

Fumblerooski · 11-04-2010, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

If you don't understand the difference and cannot comprehend it using my example, I don't feel that further explanation will help.

I understand that the statement you made was poorly worded. I certainly believe you meant that even though the Chiefs win the shitty AFC west, that does not mean we can compete against other playoff competition. But unfortunately that isn't what you said. Whether you decide to admit you were vague and essentially incorrect in your statement is entirely up to you. We don't expect much from you except clowish behavior anyway...

11-04-2010, 01:32 PM
Buzzsaw Starter Join Date: May 2005 Casino cash: $10004900	Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC Compiled by Mike Harris The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Code: AFC West Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4% SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0% OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% The table's a little messed up, here's a screen Playoff Scenarios This report lists the odds of each team * Reaching the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Super Bowl Code: Conf App Conf Win SB Win NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0% KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1% NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0% PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4% PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3% ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6% GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5% TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0% IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8% NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7% NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8% BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2% TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Posts: 331

11-04-2010, 01:44 PM	#8
TheGuardian MVP Join Date: Mar 2009 Casino cash: $8245299	Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.
Posts: 7,849

11-04-2010, 01:47 PM	#12
Hydrae Sandbox: Leander Lasercats Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Austin, Tx Casino cash: $2317000	Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium.
Posts: 14,686

11-04-2010, 01:51 PM	#14
sportsman1 Nomadical Transient in Chief Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Fort Worth, TX Casino cash: $10005215	This seems like a bad omen. However it sure beats backing into the playoffs like the herminator did. If we can get the monkey off our back and beat the streak and atleast win a first or second round game.. I would feel immensely better.
Posts: 1,456

11-04-2010, 01:41 PM	#6
Gadzooks MFIC Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Tromsø, Norway Casino cash: $3859219	The Chargers will the division again this year. They're very sneaky, (ask the Donk fans).
Posts: 7,771