Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

[Buzzsaw]

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

AFC West
Team	Rec	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
KC	5-2	29.2%	11.4	19.1%	24.9%	23.2%	25.5%	0.5%	1.0%	92.7%	44.0%	1.5%	94.2%	0.4%
SD	3-5	17.0%	8.0	0.0%	0.6%	1.4%	2.9%	1.8%	7.3%	4.9%	0.7%	9.1%	14.0%	4.0%
OAK	4-4	-9.1%	7.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	1.6%	2.3%	0.2%	1.9%	4.2%	2.3%
DEN	2-6	-24.2%	4.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen



Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

 Conf App  Conf Win    SB Win
NYG	50.3%	30.6%	16.0%
KC	43.1%	23.6%	13.1%
NE	41.1%	22.1%	12.0%
PIT	36.6%	19.4%	10.4%
PHI	32.7%	18.8%	10.3%
ATL	46.0%	22.5%	9.6%
GB	30.7%	14.4%	6.5%
TEN	18.3%	8.8%	5.0%
IND	17.2%	7.8%	3.8%
NYJ	17.7%	8.0%	3.7%
NO	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%
BAL	14.2%	5.8%	2.6%
MIA	5.7%	2.4%	1.2%
TB	6.8%	2.0%	0.7%
SEA	6.6%	1.9%	0.6%
SD	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
HOU	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
SF	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
WAS	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%
CHI	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
STL	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
MIN	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
DET	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
OAK	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
ARI	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
JAC	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
CLE	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
CIN	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

But, of course.

[TheGuardian]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

So if the Chiefs make the playoffs, they aren't playoff caliber?

please explain.

[Fumblerooski]

Originally Posted by TheGuardian

So if the Chiefs make the playoffs, they aren't playoff caliber?

please explain.

Apparently, he (or she) doesn't feel further explanation will help...

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

He's reading that from the chart, you ignorant ****nut..... Talking about us being homers, when your dumb-ass is on a Chiefs Board hoping to flame or start an argument. OF COURSE we are going to assume that the Chiefs will make it to the Super Bowl, we are Chiefs FANS!!! Please go and find a board for Raider fans and you can get a boner about McFadden padding his stats against the 32nd and 27th run defenses in the league.

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

It says right there that according to these stats we are the second most liekly team to win the Superbowl you dumbass. I know you're a worthless troll but at least read the ****ing OP.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but...

Hold up there sport.

If we have a LOSING record from here on out we finish 9-7.

Honestly, that's the best any team in the AFCW (outside of KC) can hope for right now.

So how, exactly, are we not "playoff caliber?"

[Gadzooks]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and theor 'D' is in top form.

I hope so.

Being that both the Chiefs and Raiders have managed to emasculate them only serves to give us hope for the postseason...

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

GL with catching up to our record then, homeslice. Past history definitely suggest's that they can do it.

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by Fumblerooskie

I understand that the statement you made was poorly worded. I certainly believe you meant that even though the Chiefs win the shitty AFC west, that does not mean we can compete against other playoff competition. But unfortunately that isn't what you said. Whether you decide to admit you were vague and essentially incorrect in your statement is entirely up to you. We don't expect much from you except clowish behavior anyway...

I'm so sorry, you are 1000000000000% correct. How could I think to be so dumb to not dumb it down a little for the majority of this board.

Hilarious that my behavior is "clowish" yet I've been told to die NUMEROUS times since being here when I was still being cordial w/ the board as well as people wishing my children were stillborn. So I will politely say "**** off" to you much like that fat cow seems to be doing in your pic.

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

Dude. Once again. It was a reference to the OP which stated they are the most likely team to rep the AFC in the superbowl and the second most likely to win it.

[Gadzooks]

Originally Posted by Superturtle

GL with catching up to our record then, homeslice. Past history definitely suggest's that they can do it.

It should be a fun 2nd half to the season, (at least for me).

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

I'm so sorry, you are 1000000000000% correct. How could I think to be so dumb to not dumb it down a little for the majority of this board.

Hilarious that my behavior is "clowish" yet I've been told to die NUMEROUS times since being here when I was still being cordial w/ the board as well as people wishing my children were stillborn. So I will politely say "**** off" to you much like that fat cow seems to be doing in your pic.

@ weak avatar smack

[Gadzooks]

Originally Posted by kysirsoze

Dude. Once again. It was a reference to the OP which stated they are the most likely team to rep the AFC in the superbowl and the second most likely to win it.

I know, I get it... I'm just sayin'.

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

Shocking the only person who gets it isn't a Chiefs fan. If I could rep, I would rep you for not being a ****ing moron like majority of the locals around here.