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Old 12-11-2012, 09:59 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread
Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:29 PM   #7201
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Think about what you're saying: he has a (0.5) WAR. Frenchy has a (0.4) WAR. Oh yeah: Frenchy is 68th among all MLB outfielders in plate appearances which basically makes him an average #2 OF in the league.


That's not great but it's also not terrible.
Wouldn't that make him 3rd tier with an avg #2 being about 45th?
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:30 PM   #7202
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
And, FTR, narrowing your scope to "ready-now" players is pretty much a sure way to get ****ed in a trade.
Depends on how you define it. If you do it the same way as Allard Baird, it's a disaster.

If you define it as a guy like Kolten Wong, Joe Pederson in the LA system, etc. it works out just fine. Same thing with a Tyler Skaggs.


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Originally Posted by KChiefs1 View Post
What is Santana worth?
Santana PROBABLY is worth somewhere between a 50 and top 75 sort, by himself, to the right team.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:33 PM   #7203
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Wouldn't that make him 3rd tier with an avg #2 being about 45th?
It makes him worthy of being a starter, and that's an absurdity as we all know.


It really doesn't matter how often a guy bats or how many IP he throws, if he's destroying value in teh process. Hell, I want a guy playing LESS if he's a negative WAR player.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:41 PM   #7204
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Think about what you're saying: he has a (0.5) WAR. Frenchy has a (0.4) WAR. Oh yeah: Frenchy is 68th among all MLB outfielders in plate appearances which basically makes him an average #2 OF in the league.


That's not great but it's also not terrible.
Where are you getting that WAR number for Francoeur?

fWAR has him at -0.9. bWAR has him at -0.8.

Sticking with Fangraphs (because it's hard to get a BRef listing by WAR that goes beyond a Top 10), that's 207th out of 213 players who have played the OF in the major leagues this season.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:44 PM   #7205
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That pumped me up, and glad to hear they won't be sellers for once. I hate that part of the game.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:45 PM   #7206
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Depends on how you define it. If you do it the same way as Allard Baird, it's a disaster.

If you define it as a guy like Kolten Wong, Joe Pederson in the LA system, etc. it works out just fine. Same thing with a Tyler Skaggs.
How likely do you see this possibility?
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:51 PM   #7207
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How likely do you see this possibility?
I don't know if the Cards really will dangle Wong, but it's a possibility. And he's a 2B who is ranked in the right range to make it worth KC's while to deal Santana.

KC MUST get a prospect valuable enough to dump the chance at a comp pick for Santana.
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Old 07-18-2013, 01:51 PM   #7208
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Where are you getting that WAR number for Francoeur?

fWAR has him at -0.9. bWAR has him at -0.8.

Sticking with Fangraphs (because it's hard to get a BRef listing by WAR that goes beyond a Top 10), that's 207th out of 213 players who have played the OF in the major leagues this season.
I wasn't aware he's now with SD and stinking up the joint there, 2-18 so far. I think his WAR is actually getting worse from when I saw it last a few weeks back. But yes it's 0.9. Now where does Guthrie rank on fWAR among all qualifers?
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Old 07-18-2013, 02:02 PM   #7209
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I wasn't aware he's now with SD and stinking up the joint there, 2-18 so far. I think his WAR is actually getting worse from when I saw it last a few weeks back. But yes it's 0.9. Now where does Guthrie rank on fWAR among all qualifers?
He has been in negatives all year, except maybe for the first week. He's with San Francisco, though, not San Diego.

Guthrie ranks 70/71, which doesn't surprise me. 3rd starter types are where the qualification cut-offs start... as the No. 4 and 5 spots typically bounce for a lot of teams.

He's a fringe No. 3/solid No. 4 starter.

fWAR for pitchers ranks Wade Davis (39th overall) higher than each of the following:

Jeff Locke
Kris Medlen
Paul Maholm
Tommy Millone
Andrew Cashner
Jeremy Hefner
Wade Miley
Kyle Lohse
Jarrod Parker
Bronson Arroyo
Ryan Dempster
Chris Tillman

Is there a SINGLE guy on that list you legitimately think is WORSE than Wade Davis?
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Old 07-18-2013, 02:08 PM   #7210
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If Guthrie is below replacement value then Davis and Chendoza sure as hell are to. Which three replacement level guys are you supposed to replace them with again? Would it be correct to say someone that has an even 0 WAR is not easily replaceable?
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Old 07-18-2013, 03:36 PM   #7211
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He has been in negatives all year, except maybe for the first week. He's with San Francisco, though, not San Diego.

Guthrie ranks 70/71, which doesn't surprise me. 3rd starter types are where the qualification cut-offs start... as the No. 4 and 5 spots typically bounce for a lot of teams.

He's a fringe No. 3/solid No. 4 starter.

fWAR for pitchers ranks Wade Davis (39th overall) higher than each of the following:

Jeff Locke
Kris Medlen
Paul Maholm
Tommy Millone
Andrew Cashner
Jeremy Hefner
Wade Miley
Kyle Lohse
Jarrod Parker
Bronson Arroyo
Ryan Dempster
Chris Tillman

Is there a SINGLE guy on that list you legitimately think is WORSE than Wade Davis?

From the eyeball test, I would have to agree. FG gives tons of credit for normalizing HR rates on fly balls and he's been stung a bit. The problem with Davis is his defenders say "he'll revert to his career data". Problem is his career data includes stints in the pen. I'm sure Hoch's data has improved this year over his career too.
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Old 07-18-2013, 03:44 PM   #7212
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Old 07-18-2013, 03:45 PM   #7213
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It makes him worthy of being a starter, and that's an absurdity as we all know.


It really doesn't matter how often a guy bats or how many IP he throws, if he's destroying value in teh process. Hell, I want a guy playing LESS if he's a negative WAR player.
WAR... WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR??? ABSOLUTELY NOTHIN.
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Old 07-18-2013, 03:47 PM   #7214
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I don't know if the Cards really will dangle Wong, but it's a possibility.
I can assure you, that back in the 1980's I dangled Wong in St. Louis on many occasions....
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Old 07-18-2013, 04:16 PM   #7215
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