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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

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Old 06-13-2017, 03:29 PM   #2251
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Here are our first round draft picks over the last 10 years:



Ashe Russel

Nolan Watson

Chase Vallot

Foster Griffin

Finnegan

Manaea

Dozier

Zimmer

Bubba

Colon

Crow

Montgomery



Who inspires confidence in our ability to scout and develop elite young talent?

Montgomery is now a quality reliever/spot starter, was a key piece of the shields/Davis trade, and was developed well enough to be a consensus top 20 prospect. Success.

Crow turned in a few years of solid MLb bullpen production and returned Brian Flynn via trade, who has a solid MLb season under his belt and four more years of control.

Colon and Starling are busts.

Zimmer can't stay healthy but was a scouting success. He's just as dynamic as they thought, and there was no way these injury issues could have been foresee.

Dozier is going to be a quality major leaguer, and Manaea is on his way to being a good MLb starter. Also was developed well enough to be a top 50-75 prospect.

Finnegan had a successful rookie season and was a key trade piece.

Griffin is in the midst of a breakout season at A+ and AA. After struggling his first two years, he now looks like he could be a solid MLb SP.

Vallot is not crushing at A+, though he is starting to hit better. His power is real, and he's only 20. That's not over.

Watson and Russell looks like busts.

That's not a terrible success rate, compared to other major league teams. And that's only talking about first round picks.

Jorge Bonifacio and Whit Merrifield certainly are marks in favor of the Royals development. Same with Junis or even Skoglund.

The royals have a few painful misses. But that doesn't mean this is a hopeless system with no ability to develop guys.


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Old 06-13-2017, 03:33 PM   #2252
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I think everyone does realize that, we also realize that the first round is a crap shoot. We've been a little better in identifying talent in Latin America, but we've been very good with trades. The Greinke trade for MLB ready talent was great, our draft picks haven't been.
You are not the only fan to criticize the drafts so I get where you're coming from. But, I will point out, the first four on your original list are young and we don't know how their careers will turn out. Dozier (on DL with serious injury), Zimmer (alway hurt), and Starling (can't seem to get it) are great disappointments.
I will also point out, I believe there are four rookies on the current roster; Skogland, Junis, Bonifacio, and Torres. There could be some rookie bullpen guys that have shuffled back and worth but I can't keep up with them. I guess what I'm trying to say is, the cupboard is not entirely bare.
But I do understand your point.
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Old 06-13-2017, 03:36 PM   #2253
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Montgomery is now a quality reliever/spot starter, was a key piece of the shields/Davis trade, and was developed well enough to be a consensus top 20 prospect. Success.

Crow turned in a few years of solid MLb bullpen production and returned Brian Flynn via trade, who has a solid MLb season under his belt and four more years of control.

Colon and Starling are busts.

Zimmer can't stay healthy but was a scouting success. He's just as dynamic as they thought, and there was no way these injury issues could have been foresee.

Dozier is going to be a quality major leaguer, and Manaea is on his way to being a good MLb starter. Also was developed well enough to be a top 50-75 prospect.

Finnegan had a successful rookie season and was a key trade piece.

Griffin is in the midst of a breakout season at A+ and AA. After struggling his first two years, he now looks like he could be a solid MLb SP.

Vallot is not crushing at A+, though he is starting to hit better. His power is real, and he's only 20. That's not over.

Watson and Russell looks like busts.

That's not a terrible success rate, compared to other major league teams. And that's only talking about first round picks.

Jorge Bonifacio and Whit Merrifield certainly are marks in favor of the Royals development. Same with Junis or even Skoglund.

The royals have a few painful misses. But that doesn't mean this is a hopeless system with no ability to develop guys.


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As always, you said all better than I did. With better facts.
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Old 06-13-2017, 03:52 PM   #2254
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I would rather him be the next Hosmer. He won something.
Lol I'd rather hos was as good as Votto.. dude is what I thought hosmer was going to be #s wise
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Old 06-13-2017, 04:09 PM   #2255
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Montgomery is now a quality reliever/spot starter, was a key piece of the shields/Davis trade, and was developed well enough to be a consensus top 20 prospect. Success.

Crow turned in a few years of solid MLb bullpen production and returned Brian Flynn via trade, who has a solid MLb season under his belt and four more years of control.

Colon and Starling are busts.

Zimmer can't stay healthy but was a scouting success. He's just as dynamic as they thought, and there was no way these injury issues could have been foresee.

Dozier is going to be a quality major leaguer, and Manaea is on his way to being a good MLb starter. Also was developed well enough to be a top 50-75 prospect.

Finnegan had a successful rookie season and was a key trade piece.

Griffin is in the midst of a breakout season at A+ and AA. After struggling his first two years, he now looks like he could be a solid MLb SP.

Vallot is not crushing at A+, though he is starting to hit better. His power is real, and he's only 20. That's not over.

Watson and Russell looks like busts.

That's not a terrible success rate, compared to other major league teams. And that's only talking about first round picks.

Jorge Bonifacio and Whit Merrifield certainly are marks in favor of the Royals development. Same with Junis or even Skoglund.

The royals have a few painful misses. But that doesn't mean this is a hopeless system with no ability to develop guys.


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I would be less concerned about Moore's draft record if the MLB hadn't added rules that will cull the brilliant strategy Moore utilized a decade ago in Latin America.

The new rules plus with Moore's recent misses in the draft means he will have an uphill climb if we need to go full rebuild - which is why I'm more inclined for us to go with ready made pieces through trades this year.

The good news is that the cupboard isn't the desolate wasteland that it was when he took the keys from Allard.
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Old 06-13-2017, 04:37 PM   #2256
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Old 06-13-2017, 05:42 PM   #2257
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Matt Strahm 2016:
22.0 IP, 12.27 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 1.23 ERA, 2.06 FIP, 3.04 xFIP

Matt Strahm 2017:
22.0 IP, 10.64 K/9, 7.36 BB/9, 4.50 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 4.85 xFIP

One of the mistakes that the Royals FO has made this season that has irked me the most was trusting Strahm to be a late-inning reliever instead of continuing his development as a starter in the first place. Walks have become a troublesome trend for Strahm since he moved to the pen when he arrived in KC last season, of which he had seem to have no problem with for the better part of 2 years starting. If you take a look at his numbers in the minors and in the majors, Matt Strahm's walk issues are directly correlated to pitching out of the bullpen. This problem didn't just come out of nowhere, and it shouldn't be a surprise to the FO that this hasn't worked out up to this point.

STRAHM BB/9
2014- Rookie Ball- Games: 10, Games started: 1, BB/9: 4.58
2015- A-Ball- Games: 14, Games started: 0, BB/9: 4.15
2015- High-A Ball- Games: 15, Games started: 11, BB/9: 2.51
2016- AA-NWA Games: 22, Games started: 18, BB/9: 2.02
2016- KC Games: 21, Games started: 0, BB/9: 4.50
2017- KC Games: 20, Games started: 0, BB/9: 7.36

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Old 06-13-2017, 05:52 PM   #2258
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Matt Strahm 2016:
22.0 IP, 12.27 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 1.23 ERA, 2.06 FIP, 3.04 xFIP

Matt Strahm 2017:
22.0 IP, 10.64 K/9, 7.36 BB/9, 4.50 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 4.85 xFIP
Who was the original starter for that date?
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Old 06-13-2017, 05:55 PM   #2259
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Who was the original starter for that date?
It would have been Skoglund's spot.
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Old 06-13-2017, 07:21 PM   #2260
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@OMAStormChasers: Top 4: GONE! Jorge Soler hits another one! It's 2-2. #SolerPower

He has 7 hr in his last 11 games in Omaha
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Old 06-13-2017, 07:41 PM   #2261
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Jorge Bonifacio and Whit Merrifield certainly are marks in favor of the Royals development.
Okay, here's what I don't understand and hopefully, you can clear up.

Bonifacio has been ascending for a while. I thought he should have been brought up last year early and he certainly should have made the 25.

So, with that said, why trade for Soler? He's behind Boni and they play the same the position. How could they not see that Boni was taking the next step?

I'd rather have Wade right now, for the last run.
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Old 06-13-2017, 07:44 PM   #2262
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Maybe we can trade Soler back to the Cubs for Davis. That would booster there farm system.
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Old 06-13-2017, 07:46 PM   #2263
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Old 06-13-2017, 07:54 PM   #2264
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Over/under on innings pitched before bext DL stint?

Ill give it 1 and a third
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Old 06-13-2017, 08:13 PM   #2265
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Ty Blach, the Giants starter for tonight, has a K/9 of 3.64. That mark ranks dead last of all pitchers in the majors who have thrown 60 or more IP this season. However, he has good command with a BB/9 of 1.82 which ranks 10th best of all starters with 60 or more IP.

Blach's key to success is generating groundballs of which he does 50.7% of the time, which ranks in the top 20% of pitchers who have thrown 60 or more IP.
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