Weather NOAA Warning of "Frankenstorm" for NYC - Page 5

**gblowfish** · 10-25-2012, 03:37 PM

Next week, hurricane winds with snow. I'm sure NYC will handle that well...
Story is here:
http://news.yahoo.com/noaa-east-bewa...171317994.html

WASHINGTON (AP) — An unusual nasty mix of a hurricane and a winter storm that forecasters are now calling "Frankenstorm" is likely to blast most of the East Coast next week, focusing the worst of its weather mayhem around New York City and New Jersey.

Government forecasters on Thursday upped the odds of a major weather mess, now saying there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday.

Meteorologists say it is likely to cause $1 billion in damage.

The storm is a combination of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio.

The hurricane part of the storm is likely to come ashore somewhere in New Jersey on Tuesday morning, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco. But this is a storm that will affect a far wider area, so people all along the East have to be wary, Cisco said.

Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, mostly from the hurricane part, he said, and the other parts of the storm will reach inland from North Carolina northward.

Once the hurricane part of the storm hits, "it will get broader. It won't be as intense, but its effects will be spread over a very large area," the National Hurricane Center's chief hurricane specialist, James Franklin, said Thursday.

One of the more messy aspects of the expected storm is that it just won't leave. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say. Weather may start clearing in the mid-Atlantic the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the Northeast, Cisco said.

"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," Cisco said Thursday from NOAA's northern storm forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread serious storm."

With every hour, meteorologists are getting more confident that this storm is going to be bad and they're able to focus their forecasts more.

The New York area could see around 5 inches of rain during the storm, while there could be snow southwest of where it comes inland, Cisco said. That could mean snow in eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and the Shenandoah Mountains, he said.

Both private and federal meteorologists are calling this a storm that will likely go down in the history books.

"We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting," Cisco said.

It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear.

Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn't hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast.

"The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground. "Yeah, it will be worse."

But this is several days in advance, when weather forecasts are usually far less accurate. The National Hurricane Center only predicts five days in advance, and each long-range forecast moves Sandy's track closer to the coast early next week. The latest has the storm just off central New Jersey's shore at 8 a.m. on Tuesday.

As forecasts became more focused Thursday, the chance of the storm bypassing much of the coast and coming ashore in Maine faded, Cisco said.

The hurricane center's Franklin called it "a big mess for an awful lot of people in the early part of next week."

**bevischief** · 10-26-2012, 06:51 PM

Tell us your situation apartment, house, whatever so we can help you or tell you to get the heck out of town. We don't need address.

Pasta Little Brioni · 10-26-2012, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bevischief

Tell us your situation apartment, house, whatever so we can send in the midgets to help you or tell you to get the heck out of town. We don't need address.

FYP

**Dylan** · 10-26-2012, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bevischief

Tell us your situation apartment, house, whatever so we can help you or tell you to get the heck out of town. We don't need address.

I live in a 30-story high rise building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

The West Side of Manhattan is near the Hudson River. The East Side of Manhattan is near the East River - and both rivers connect to the Atlantic Ocean. Lower Manhattan has had flooding problems during hurricanes in the past.

PGM: LOL

What the hell is Mayor Bloomberg doing for us besides downsizing soda cups? He is another empty suit. No one is prepared for this hurricane. They're too busy killing each other over a parking spot.

**cdcox** · 10-26-2012, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTLB58

It could leave some towns without power into election day.

Hanging chads anyone...

HARRP

**bevischief** · 10-26-2012, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dylan

I live in a 30-story high rise building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

The West Side of Manhattan is near the Hudson River. The East Side of Manhattan is near the East River - and both rivers connect to the Atlantic Ocean. Lower Manhattan has had flooding problems during hurricanes in the past.

PGM: LOL

What the hell is Mayor Bloomberg doing for us besides downsizing soda cups? He is another empty suit. No one is prepared for this hurricane. They're too busy killing each other over a parking spot.

Sounds like it from what found I have heard about his so far. What floor? So we can how much water you need

Ace Gunner · 10-26-2012, 07:57 PM

I got fam in NYC & they are all bustin out the survival kits and trying to jettison children.

Ace Gunner · 10-26-2012, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dylan

I live in a 30-story high rise building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

The West Side of Manhattan is near the Hudson River. The East Side of Manhattan is near the East River - and both rivers connect to the Atlantic Ocean. Lower Manhattan has had flooding problems during hurricanes in the past.

PGM: LOL

What the hell is Mayor Bloomberg doing for us besides downsizing soda cups? He is another empty suit. No one is prepared for this hurricane. They're too busy killing each other over a parking spot.

bloomberg will have all those drones shoved up his ass if this storm does what forcasters are predicting. **** that douche and his billion dollar $urveillance cams.

Fat Elvis · 10-26-2012, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

HARRP

Is there nothing Republicans won't do to suppress the vote?

GloryDayz · 10-26-2012, 08:17 PM

Having lived in Va. Beach for MANY years and had up-close fun with hurricane Hugo, I'm glad I bought stock in duct tape last week....

Hang on folks, it's ride....

**Bugeater** · 10-26-2012, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Here in Maryland look's like a direct hit.

With any luck, you'll be out of power for a long time and it will spare us from your reeruned posts and incessant twitter updates for a while.

Aries Walker · 10-26-2012, 09:04 PM

Me: "Okay, so Dad, tomorrow [my brother-in-law] Rob and I are going to clean out your gutters . . . "

Dad: "Oh, you don't need to do that. They're just leaves, and the water comes down with enough force to just blast them out."

Me: "Umm, no. It's not a leaf, it's leaves, piles and piles of packed leaves, and the water doesn't lift them out, it packs them down."

Dad: "I've never had a problem with them before. They've warned about big storms before, and I just ignore them. I'd rather you use the time to shampoo the carpet and bug-bomb the room over the garage, so I can rent it out before November first."

Me: "Dad, this is not a normal storm. It's three storms coming together, and one of them is a hurricane that's already killed 20 people. It's going to be a major catastrophe, with high winds and constant, heavy rain for four days. They have no modern models for this storm. The entire meteorological community has never seen anything like it in their lives." (Thinking: "And besides, who would rent out a room during a hurricane?")

Dad: "All the more reason. The water will be stronger, and will just blast the leaves right out of there."

Me: "Dad, every news station, every weather forecaster, every single disaster preparation authority of every kind suggests to clean out gutters before a major storm, and this one may turn out to be the biggest storm in a generation."

Dad: "I don't care what they say. I've ignored it before, and they're fine."

Me: "Your gutters could fall off. The porch roof could collapse."

Dad: "I'm not worried about it."

Me: "Gah."

Titty Meat · 10-26-2012, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dylan

I live in a 30-story high rise building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

The West Side of Manhattan is near the Hudson River. The East Side of Manhattan is near the East River - and both rivers connect to the Atlantic Ocean. Lower Manhattan has had flooding problems during hurricanes in the past.

PGM: LOL

What the hell is Mayor Bloomberg doing for us besides downsizing soda cups? He is another empty suit. No one is prepared for this hurricane. They're too busy killing each other over a parking spot.

You're either rich or live in Hells Kitchen.

Bump · 10-26-2012, 10:46 PM

man now people are saying it's could be the worst storm in recorded history. holy ****.

Telling Northeasterners to chill is a bad idea. A local meteorologist explains why:

So here we are about 3 or 4 days away from what may be the worst storm for the Northeast since humans populated the area. I'm not kidding, that is a possibility. We know neither how strong this beast will be or exactly who will get the worst of it. Why? Because what is about to happen is unprecedented in the years that human have attempted to understand how the atmosphere works. Hurricanes have merged with colder air as an energetic jet stream interacts before. But perhaps not with the intensity of the factors coming into play this time. A similar scenario has happened before, back in 1991 ... the "Perfect Storm" of movie and book lore was born. Forecasts of that storm were awful leading up to it. The center of that system never made landfall along the East Coast. In fact, at its strongest the core of that storm was a few hundred miles east of New England. Here's what resulted: 80 mph winds and 25-foot waves on the Massachusetts Coast. Offshore buoys recorded 40-foot waves (that is enough to swallow a fishing boat). The Maryland Coast recorded record high tides. The lowest barometric pressure with that storm was 972 mb (that corresponds to 28.70" for those of you who are familiar with those units). Some computer forecast models drop the lowest pressure with Sandy to below 940 mb (27.75"). If you have a barometer at home, take a look at it - it doesn't go that low. If that occurs, this storm will bring the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded on the East Coast. Low pressure means wind, an tropical storm force winds already extend hundreds of miles away from the center of Sandy. Some believe as the storm approaches the coast it may intensify which means stronger winds. That means a widespread area of damage and power outages in the most populated part of the country. I feel there is a good chance we will still have some areas, perhaps entire communities, that lose power and still do not have it come Election Day a week later. Think about that ... no power on Election Day ... a hanging chad could pale in comparison.

But here's the problem ... the computer forecast models that all the forecasters will lean on so heavily have no chance of getting this exactly right. Models are either configured (numerically, in terms of the mathematical equations that drive them), to handle either tropical system well, or what we call mid-latitude systems well, that is ones with warm and cold air clashing. There is no model that handles both well. If there were we would have one great model and my life would be far less stressful. The hurricane will merge with colder air and energy from the jet stream and transition from a tropical system into what we call an extratropical one. Historically the computer forecast models are not good when this happens. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast takes Sandy early Tuesday into the New Jersey or Deleware Coast on a westward track (which by the way has NEVER happened since we have been keeping track of these sort of things). They may be weighing the models that handle tropical system a bit more heavily, but those models should become less accurate as the colder, mid-latitude air works into Sandy's circulation near landfall. As of early this afternoon we have a threat or landfall anywhere between the eastern shore of Maryland and Massachusetts. It may be later Monday or even as late as early Wednesday. We will hear about this storm for weeks after it happens. Homes will fall into the ocean and lives will be lost. If the damaging winds are widespread enough, it may be one of the costliest weather events in U.S. history due to the population likely affected.

Hopefully those near and along the coast in the Northeast are preparing for what will certainly be one for the ages.

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Aries Walker · 10-26-2012, 10:55 PM

I would love a link to that source.

Bump · 10-26-2012, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

I would love a link to that source.

http://www.reddit.com/tb/12524b

reddit, lol

my home away from cp

10-25-2012, 03:37 PM
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17646178 VARSITY	NOAA Warning of "Frankenstorm" for NYC Next week, hurricane winds with snow. I'm sure NYC will handle that well... Story is here: http://news.yahoo.com/noaa-east-bewa...171317994.html WASHINGTON (AP) — An unusual nasty mix of a hurricane and a winter storm that forecasters are now calling "Frankenstorm" is likely to blast most of the East Coast next week, focusing the worst of its weather mayhem around New York City and New Jersey. Government forecasters on Thursday upped the odds of a major weather mess, now saying there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday. Meteorologists say it is likely to cause $1 billion in damage. The storm is a combination of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio. The hurricane part of the storm is likely to come ashore somewhere in New Jersey on Tuesday morning, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco. But this is a storm that will affect a far wider area, so people all along the East have to be wary, Cisco said. Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, mostly from the hurricane part, he said, and the other parts of the storm will reach inland from North Carolina northward. Once the hurricane part of the storm hits, "it will get broader. It won't be as intense, but its effects will be spread over a very large area," the National Hurricane Center's chief hurricane specialist, James Franklin, said Thursday. One of the more messy aspects of the expected storm is that it just won't leave. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say. Weather may start clearing in the mid-Atlantic the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the Northeast, Cisco said. "It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," Cisco said Thursday from NOAA's northern storm forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread serious storm." With every hour, meteorologists are getting more confident that this storm is going to be bad and they're able to focus their forecasts more. The New York area could see around 5 inches of rain during the storm, while there could be snow southwest of where it comes inland, Cisco said. That could mean snow in eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and the Shenandoah Mountains, he said. Both private and federal meteorologists are calling this a storm that will likely go down in the history books. "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting," Cisco said. It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn't hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast. "The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground. "Yeah, it will be worse." But this is several days in advance, when weather forecasts are usually far less accurate. The National Hurricane Center only predicts five days in advance, and each long-range forecast moves Sandy's track closer to the coast early next week. The latest has the storm just off central New Jersey's shore at 8 a.m. on Tuesday. As forecasts became more focused Thursday, the chance of the storm bypassing much of the coast and coming ashore in Maine faded, Cisco said. The hurricane center's Franklin called it "a big mess for an awful lot of people in the early part of next week."
Posts: 40,839

10-26-2012, 06:51 PM	#61
bevischief .... Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Somewhere Kansas Casino cash: $8659352 VARSITY	Tell us your situation apartment, house, whatever so we can help you or tell you to get the heck out of town. We don't need address.
Posts: 27,731

10-26-2012, 07:57 PM	#66
Ace Gunner First Overall Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: kcmo Casino cash: $10007271	I got fam in NYC & they are all bustin out the survival kits and trying to jettison children. __________________ The Greatest
Posts: 10,580

10-26-2012, 08:17 PM	#69
GloryDayz (Sir/Yes Sir/Aye Aye Sir) Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Diving Casino cash: $3415380	Having lived in Va. Beach for MANY years and had up-close fun with hurricane Hugo, I'm glad I bought stock in duct tape last week.... Hang on folks, it's ride.... __________________ . #President Trump loves and supports the constitution #McCarthy is a Sellout and Traitor to America #The FBLieIsCorrupt #DefundTheFBI #The FBI Is Not The Police #PresidentBidenIsMoronic #LizCheneyGotTheBoot #FJB #80,000,000 Mules (and a few Americans too) Voted For COVID To Continue #I still don't have COVID
Posts: 115,643

10-26-2012, 09:04 PM	#71
Aries Walker Back again, again. Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: York, PA Casino cash: $9583357	Me: "Okay, so Dad, tomorrow [my brother-in-law] Rob and I are going to clean out your gutters . . . " Dad: "Oh, you don't need to do that. They're just leaves, and the water comes down with enough force to just blast them out." Me: "Umm, no. It's not a leaf, it's leaves, piles and piles of packed leaves, and the water doesn't lift them out, it packs them down." Dad: "I've never had a problem with them before. They've warned about big storms before, and I just ignore them. I'd rather you use the time to shampoo the carpet and bug-bomb the room over the garage, so I can rent it out before November first." Me: "Dad, this is not a normal storm. It's three storms coming together, and one of them is a hurricane that's already killed 20 people. It's going to be a major catastrophe, with high winds and constant, heavy rain for four days. They have no modern models for this storm. The entire meteorological community has never seen anything like it in their lives." (Thinking: "And besides, who would rent out a room during a hurricane?") Dad: "All the more reason. The water will be stronger, and will just blast the leaves right out of there." Me: "Dad, every news station, every weather forecaster, every single disaster preparation authority of every kind suggests to clean out gutters before a major storm, and this one may turn out to be the biggest storm in a generation." Dad: "I don't care what they say. I've ignored it before, and they're fine." Me: "Your gutters could fall off. The porch roof could collapse." Dad: "I'm not worried about it." Me: "Gah."
Posts: 8,179

10-26-2012, 10:46 PM	#73
Bump YOU take YOUR seat Join Date: Nov 2007 Casino cash: $2085105	man now people are saying it's could be the worst storm in recorded history. holy ****. Telling Northeasterners to chill is a bad idea. A local meteorologist explains why: So here we are about 3 or 4 days away from what may be the worst storm for the Northeast since humans populated the area. I'm not kidding, that is a possibility. We know neither how strong this beast will be or exactly who will get the worst of it. Why? Because what is about to happen is unprecedented in the years that human have attempted to understand how the atmosphere works. Hurricanes have merged with colder air as an energetic jet stream interacts before. But perhaps not with the intensity of the factors coming into play this time. A similar scenario has happened before, back in 1991 ... the "Perfect Storm" of movie and book lore was born. Forecasts of that storm were awful leading up to it. The center of that system never made landfall along the East Coast. In fact, at its strongest the core of that storm was a few hundred miles east of New England. Here's what resulted: 80 mph winds and 25-foot waves on the Massachusetts Coast. Offshore buoys recorded 40-foot waves (that is enough to swallow a fishing boat). The Maryland Coast recorded record high tides. The lowest barometric pressure with that storm was 972 mb (that corresponds to 28.70" for those of you who are familiar with those units). Some computer forecast models drop the lowest pressure with Sandy to below 940 mb (27.75"). If you have a barometer at home, take a look at it - it doesn't go that low. If that occurs, this storm will bring the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded on the East Coast. Low pressure means wind, an tropical storm force winds already extend hundreds of miles away from the center of Sandy. Some believe as the storm approaches the coast it may intensify which means stronger winds. That means a widespread area of damage and power outages in the most populated part of the country. I feel there is a good chance we will still have some areas, perhaps entire communities, that lose power and still do not have it come Election Day a week later. Think about that ... no power on Election Day ... a hanging chad could pale in comparison. But here's the problem ... the computer forecast models that all the forecasters will lean on so heavily have no chance of getting this exactly right. Models are either configured (numerically, in terms of the mathematical equations that drive them), to handle either tropical system well, or what we call mid-latitude systems well, that is ones with warm and cold air clashing. There is no model that handles both well. If there were we would have one great model and my life would be far less stressful. The hurricane will merge with colder air and energy from the jet stream and transition from a tropical system into what we call an extratropical one. Historically the computer forecast models are not good when this happens. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast takes Sandy early Tuesday into the New Jersey or Deleware Coast on a westward track (which by the way has NEVER happened since we have been keeping track of these sort of things). They may be weighing the models that handle tropical system a bit more heavily, but those models should become less accurate as the colder, mid-latitude air works into Sandy's circulation near landfall. As of early this afternoon we have a threat or landfall anywhere between the eastern shore of Maryland and Massachusetts. It may be later Monday or even as late as early Wednesday. We will hear about this storm for weeks after it happens. Homes will fall into the ocean and lives will be lost. If the damaging winds are widespread enough, it may be one of the costliest weather events in U.S. history due to the population likely affected. Hopefully those near and along the coast in the Northeast are preparing for what will certainly be one for the ages. permalink parent report reply __________________
Posts: 32,300

10-26-2012, 10:55 PM	#74
Aries Walker Back again, again. Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: York, PA Casino cash: $9583357	I would love a link to that source.
Posts: 8,179