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Old 04-04-2015, 09:25 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2015 Royals Repository ***
In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer

I can't wait for this season to start. The AL Central should be a very entertaining race. I'll give brief thoughts on each team the Royals must contend with to make it back to the postseason - strengths and weaknesses.

Detroit Tigers:
Strength: The offense is still full of powerful hitters, and Miguel Cabrera may be healthier.
Weakness: Rotation is questionable after Price and Sanchez, bullpen continues to be horrible.

Cleveland Indians:
Strength: Great manager and a deep, versatile lineup.
Weakness: The rotation is a question mark past Corey Kluber, and even he has a few questions about him.

Chicago White Sox:
Strength: 1-2-3 combo of Sale, Quintana and Samardzija is pretty formidable. Offense is anchored by Jose Abreu, too.
Weakness: Defense still has major questions, and this team has 20 games to improve by if it really wants to make the playoffs.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

Let's get this started!
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Old 04-30-2015, 08:28 AM   #1831
Mr. Laz Mr. Laz is offline
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Originally Posted by Raiderhader View Post
After another player gets hit by a pitch, are Royals really the bad guys?



http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...y-the-bad-guys
The league has basically given the green light to rough up the Royals.

You can hit a batter or spike a fielder for the Royals without worrying about getting ejected or suspended.

The Royals cannot retaliate in any way,shape or form.


No reason for teams to stop anytime soon.
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Old 04-30-2015, 08:36 AM   #1832
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The thing that bothers me about Vargas and Guthrie are their SO/9 and BB/9. SO down considerably and BB up considerably. They're going to give up hits, but they can't also give up free baserunners and then not get K's when they need them.
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Old 04-30-2015, 08:43 AM   #1833
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First off, we are BABIP'ing teams to death at .340, just behind Det at .343. The LT average is .300 (we were .300 in 2013 & .302 in 2014 with many of the same players). This will regress and regress hard.


Everyone who follows MLB closely knew our rotation would suck balls this year and that our pen would have to pick them up. What we didn't know was that our own would be this deep to withstand the Vargas-Guthrie tandem and esp didn't know our offense would be hitting like this.


Needless to say we need to be competitive this weekend for more than standings purposes - for confidence we can actually beat DET
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Old 04-30-2015, 08:49 AM   #1834
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Originally Posted by Mr. Laz View Post
The league has basically given the green light to rough up the Royals.

You can hit a batter or spike a fielder for the Royals without worrying about getting ejected or suspended.

The Royals cannot retaliate in any way,shape or form.


No reason for teams to stop anytime soon.
Kind of what I was thinking. Also, the hypocrisy of not punishing Taco Night Aftermath (madbum) for his tirade just shows the double standard. You know if Yo would have hit someone in the head, he'd have been ejected and suspended for the season or something over reactionary like that.
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Old 04-30-2015, 08:53 AM   #1835
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
First off, we are BABIP'ing teams to death at .340, just behind Det at .343. The LT average is .300 (we were .300 in 2013 & .302 in 2014 with many of the same players). This will regress and regress hard.


Everyone who follows MLB closely knew our rotation would suck balls this year and that our pen would have to pick them up. What we didn't know was that our own would be this deep to withstand the Vargas-Guthrie tandem and esp didn't know our offense would be hitting like this.


Needless to say we need to be competitive this weekend for more than standings purposes - for confidence we can actually beat DET
That's an overstatement. Take a step back? Sure. But even with the bad start, the Royals still are 20th in starter ERA and 16th in starter WHIP. I expected it to be somewhere in the second tier of rotations in baseball, and I bet that's where it ends up at the end of the season.

For examples of rotations that "suck balls" go watch Colorado, Milwaukee, Toronto, Philly (outside of Hamels, that rotation is atrocious), or Baltimore.

Regarding BABIP: I'd expect the Royals to come back to earth on that one, to a certain degree, but it makes sense for KC to have a higher-than-league-average BABIP considering the number of athletic players in the lineup.

KC has consistently been right around .300 for the past several years on a team that included Billy Butler (who made more contact than the average guy for his position and hit a lot of ground balls that were routine outs due to his lack of speed). They've been about 5-10 points above the median BABIP in the past 3-4 years, and have hovered around 10th highest team BABIP in baseball.

Something around .320 would lead baseball. That's typically a very deep offense with no weak spots in the order, looking at the past several years of data.
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Last edited by duncan_idaho; 04-30-2015 at 09:03 AM..
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Old 04-30-2015, 09:20 AM   #1836
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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Our rotation is 20th FIP and our pen is 3rd. Pretty stark. Obv no small market can have it all (nor can a big market for the most part)....but we are paying $20m to Varg-Guth and they need to be at least serviceable which they haven't been. It's a cause for concern, sure. Good thing our defense & pen has been so lights out.
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Old 04-30-2015, 09:47 AM   #1837
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Our rotation is 20th FIP and our pen is 3rd. Pretty stark. Obv no small market can have it all (nor can a big market for the most part)....but we are paying $20m to Varg-Guth and they need to be at least serviceable which they haven't been. It's a cause for concern, sure. Good thing our defense & pen has been so lights out.
The fact the starter ERA is 20th and the FIP is also 20th is interesting... there was about a 1/4 run differential last year (when the Royals rotation was 17th/19th, respectively) and nearly a 1/2 run differential in 2013 (19th, 21st).

It will be interesting to see if the Royals rotation ERA stays so close to its FIP all season, or if it comes back to what we've seen the past two seasons, with the team overperforming its FIP.

I'd expect the latter, personally, based on the most recent large samples, but time will tell.

Either way... the Royals won an average of 87.5 games with a below-league-average offense and similar SP performances each of the past two seasons. With even a league-average offense, they still are in great shape to be around 90 wins the rest of the way.
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Old 04-30-2015, 09:49 AM   #1838
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The fact the starter ERA is 20th and the FIP is also 20th is interesting... there was about a 1/4 run differential last year (when the Royals rotation was 17th/19th, respectively) and nearly a 1/2 run differential in 2013 (19th, 21st).

It will be interesting to see if the Royals rotation ERA stays so close to its FIP all season, or if it comes back to what we've seen the past two seasons, with the team overperforming its FIP.

I'd expect the latter, personally, based on the most recent large samples, but time will tell.

Either way... the Royals won an average of 87.5 games with a below-league-average offense and similar SP performances each of the past two seasons. With even a league-average offense, they still are in great shape to be around 90 wins the rest of the way.
Bingo!
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Old 04-30-2015, 10:02 AM   #1839
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I'm certainly not gonna pick against them to hit 90 with the way they're putting up outrageous defensive stats already, the secondary pen guys, Moose playing at MVP caliber level (not an exaggeration) and Morales looking like he's 26 again.


Speaking of defense.....anyone see our old friend Wil Myers pull a Cansco and have the ball bounce off his head for a HR?
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Old 04-30-2015, 10:18 AM   #1840
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I'm certainly not gonna pick against them to hit 90 with the way they're putting up outrageous defensive stats already, the secondary pen guys, Moose playing at MVP caliber level (not an exaggeration) and Morales looking like he's 26 again.


Speaking of defense.....anyone see our old friend Wil Myers pull a Cansco and have the ball bounce off his head for a HR?
Yeah, but this is funnier

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Old 04-30-2015, 10:23 AM   #1841
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the fact they have Myers at CF is hilarious to me

I guess defense really doesn't matter to many GM's ... I'm glad our GM was ahead of the curve on that one
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Old 04-30-2015, 10:25 AM   #1842
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Old 04-30-2015, 11:10 AM   #1843
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the fact they have Myers at CF is hilarious to me

I guess defense really doesn't matter to many GM's ... I'm glad our GM was ahead of the curve on that one
Dayton just followed the Joe Burke/John Schuerholz method of building the glory day Royals. Build a team around speed, defense, and pitching.
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Old 04-30-2015, 11:40 AM   #1844
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Old 04-30-2015, 12:21 PM
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Old 04-30-2015, 12:21 PM   #1845
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Apparently the royals can't get a handle on the hit batsmen problem. (It's now a crisis with Escobar getting hit in the face). I guess the rules are to hit first. Initiate the HBP, then you're protected from retaliation.


Just tell Piņa to start hitting dudes in 8-4 games. Or Chris Young. Whoever. This 20-6 gap does need to be narrowed and I was mostly agnostic about it until last night
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