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Old 10-19-2013, 08:38 AM  
jjchieffan jjchieffan is offline
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Alex Smith vs. Wilson, Kaepernick and Luck

I found this article to be an interesting read but would like to hear your thoughts on it. AS haters, flame away. I'll grab the popcorn. this should be fun watching the reactions.



As we rapidly approach the NFL’s week 7, there are two undefeated teams in the league. Of course anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock knows they are the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Broncos have gotten to their position on the “record breaking” arm of quarterback Peyton Manning and perhaps the best wide receiver corps in the league. The Chiefs, as Addicts know, have won the last six games thanks to a violent and relentless defense who are on track to break a few records themselves.

Because the Chiefs are winning there haven’t been many calls for Alex Smith to head to the bench. 2011 this is not and there aren’t planes buzzing Arrowhead calling for the resignation of quarterback. Aside from the handful of fans who were against the trade from the beginning and continue to voice their level of frustration at the Chiefs rookie general manager, John Dorsey for paying such a hefty price for Smith (a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft and two wins away from a 2nd round pick in next year’s draft) most are content with Smith’s “game manager” style of play. This includes unspectacular statistics such as 221.7 yards per game, 6.2 yards per pass, seven touchdowns and a sub-standard 56.5 percent completion rating.

Since Alex Smith is the “weak link” on this team in many fans’ eyes, I thought I would look at three younger passers who many think are the future of the NFL. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck and San Francisco 49ers signal caller Colin Kaepernick define the quarterback position for many fans. So, which one would you want under center on your team: Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick or Smith?

I discussed this very topic with the staff here at Arrowhead Addict and believe it or not, most of them picked a quarterback not named Alex Smith. Overwhelmingly, the staff said they would take Andrew Luck. A couple picked Russell Wilson. Nobody picked Colin Kaepernick and I’m pretty sure I’m still the only guy that works here that wants Alex Smith as the quarterback.

In fact, here’s a quote from our former editor, Patrick Allen on the subject:

Andrew Luck. Wilson is also quite good but Luck is playing on a much worse team than Wilson. If Luck was on the Seahawks, they’d be Super Bowl favorites. “
There are a lot of Chiefs fans out there who love the trio of Wilson, Kaepernick and Luck. These three, perhaps more than any other QBs in the league, are looked at as the future of football and quarterback position.

All three have their unique stories.

Andrew Luck was the No. 1 overall pick of last year’s draft. He took the Colts from “worst to first” and didn’t play at all like the rookie he was. Moving forward into this year, he has shown no signs of the “sophomore slump” as he continues to run his team at a high level.

Russell Wilson was the huge surprise of last season, being drafted in the third round and then beating out the “sure starter” Matt Flynn for the starting job in Seattle. Moving into this year, he continues to lead one of the best teams in the NFL on the quest for a Superbowl.

Colin Kaepernick has become quite infamous as well. As he was drafted in 2011, he was the only non-rookie of this group last year when he took the starting quarterback job away from an injured Alex Smith. Through his flashy play and explosive style, many viewed him as the “next superstar” quarterback from San Francisco. He even “led” his team to the Superbowl, where they lost to the Baltimore Ravens.

So, other than being winning quarterbacks, what else do these men have in common with Alex Smith?

They’re all game managers.

And boom goes the dynamite.

If you look at the numbers and statistics and what all three of these quarterbacks have accomplished this season, they are identical to Smith. Identical. The same. In some cases, a bit less than what Smith has done.

Most of my fellow staff writers and editors here at AA said they would take Andrew Luck, hands down, if given the opportunity for any of these four QBs. This year, Luck’s team is 4-2. Luck has completed 115 passes for a total of 1,346 yards (only 16 more than Smith) and thrown for seven touchdowns. He has completed 61.8 percent of his passes and only thrown three interceptions. His average yards per pass is 7.2. That’s only one yard more than Smith’s average.

Russell Wilson is the next best choice, according to everyone I asked. The NFL is extremely high on this kid, and my Twitter timeline wouldn’t stop gushing about him last night during Thursday Night Football. However, if you look at his stats, it’s much of the same. (Note: these stats are prior to the game last night against the Arizona Cardinals.) Wilson has only thrown for 1,254 yards this season through six games and is averaging only 209 yards per game. He’s thrown 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and completed 61.4 percent of his passes. His average yards per pass is 7.9, so still in line with the “Alex Smithian” type passing game. Through all this, he managed to lose a game to the Colts, bringing the Seahawks record to 5-1.

The final quarterback in this “Magnificent Three” is Colin Kaepernick. CK7 as he’s affectionately known on the internet, will forever be the “quarterback who stole Alex Smith’s job.” It wasn’t by design, it’s just the way things work out in the business of football. After his first offseason as the starter, many expected Kaepernick to come back this season and destroy the record books and blow up the stats. Not so much.

Kaepernick has completed only 55.9 percent of passes – fewer than Smith. He’s only thrown 1,221 yards – fewer than Smith. He’s thrown eight touchdowns and five interceptions – a much worse ratio than Smith. Finally, his average YPG is 7.6. Being touted as “the next great thing” in the city by the bay, Kaepernick has led his team to a 4-2 start only good for second place in the NFC West.

Perhaps the biggest stat of all, is the “big play” stat. Alex Smith detractors continually complain that he won’t throw the deep ball or come up with a big play. Looking to the other quarterbacks, many say they are all capable of making these plays multiple times a game.

Through six games, Alex Smith has had 18 plays that went for over 20 yards and three that went for over 40. Comparatively, Luck is at 17 and three, Wilson is at 19 and three and Kaepernick is at 17 and four. That’s pretty interesting, considering that most Chiefs fans would take one of these three young men over the guy currently leading the team.

Now, many of you will come back and say: “but these guys are young and have a higher ceiling than Smith.” I can’t argue age. But I’ll retort and say this year, in the systems they’ve all had a full year learning, they’re still putting up the same pedestrian numbers that Smith is. He’s played six games in his system, under his coach. They’ve all had a full year and a full offseason with their teams.

Perhaps it’s the way their teams are built. In addition to being in the upper echelon of NFL teams, the Colts, Seahawks and 49ers have something else in common with the Chiefs. They have a strong running game and stout defenses. That definitely helps take some of the pressure off of your quarterback. Plus, when you’re not playing from behind most of the game, you don’t have to pass as much.

Still, as you look at all four of these teams and their quarterbacks, Smith still has the one stat that sticks out.

He’s 6-0.

There’s a stat you can’t argue with.

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Old 10-19-2013, 09:19 AM   #16
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Tom Brady's stats this year. Yikes. About like Smith's. Pats must need an upgrade at QB. How could they ever win with a QB putting up numbers like this?

57.1 completion %
1,480 yards
8 TD
4 Int
79.8 Rating
17 Passes over 20 yards
3 passes over 40 yards
6.2 yds/ attempt

Seriously. You haters need to accept that Smith is our quarterback and just enjoy us being 6-0 instead of the constant complaining about him.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:23 AM   #17
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Kaepernick has been dogshit this year, but Wilson and Luck are both top 10 QBs on PFF.

Alex is 23rd. Big difference.

Alex is 24th in air yards (not surprising, since almost every big pass play he's "produced" involves significant YAC after an easy throw throw). Wilson is 12th, Luck is 17th. Again, big difference.

Then of course there's the deep completions (20+). Wilson is a phenomenal downfield passer. He's 13 for 25 on passes over 20 yards this year. Luck is only 8 for 24, but I'll take that over Alex's 4 for 11. And while we're at it, another important stat: Alex is one of only 3 QBs who have not thrown a TD pass over 20 yards this year. Wilson has FIVE. Huge difference.

Additionally, you don't even really need complicated ratings systems to understand that Alex is 30th in the NFL in completion percentage, while Luck and Wilson are 16th and 17th. That's a massive difference.

The Colts are 5th in third down percentage. The Chiefs are 28th. Yup, nothing to do with Alex vs Luck at all.

I hate homers.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:24 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjchieffan View Post
Tom Brady's stats this year. Yikes. About like Smith's. Pats must need an upgrade at QB. How could they ever win with a QB putting up numbers like this?

57.1 completion %
1,480 yards
8 TD
4 Int
79.8 Rating
17 Passes over 20 yards
3 passes over 40 yards
6.2 yds/ attempt

Seriously. You haters need to accept that Smith is our quarterback and just enjoy us being 6-0 instead of the constant complaining about him.
Tom Brady's worst year is going to be better than Alex Smith's best year.

Yay!
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:26 AM   #19
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Guy who wrote the article.

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Old 10-19-2013, 09:27 AM   #20
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Kaepernick has been dogshit this year, but Wilson and Luck are both top 10 QBs on PFF.

Alex is 23rd. Big difference.

Alex is 24th in air yards (not surprising, since almost every big pass play he's "produced" involves significant YAC after an easy throw throw). Wilson is 12th, Luck is 17th. Again, big difference.

Then of course there's the deep completions (20+). Wilson is a phenomenal downfield passer. He's 13 for 25 on passes over 20 yards this year. Luck is only 8 for 24, but I'll take that over Alex's 4 for 11. And while we're at it, another important stat: Alex is one of only 3 QBs who have not thrown a TD pass over 20 yards this year. Wilson has FIVE. Huge difference.

Additionally, you don't even really need complicated ratings systems to understand that Alex is 30th in the NFL in completion percentage, while Luck and Wilson are 16th and 17th. That's a massive difference.

The Colts are 5th in third down percentage. The Chiefs are 28th. Yup, nothing to do with Alex vs Luck at all.

I hate homers.
And that's even more scary since Alex supposedly throws "high percentage" passes.

Look, I'm as happy as anyone that we got Alex and still believe he was the best option we had for the franchise at this time. Without him, there's no way we'd be at 6-0, and the resurrection of Arrowhead alone is worth that.

I just really hope that we still look for a young QB in the draft next year (unless they really think Bray has the chance).
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:29 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjchieffan View Post
Tom Brady's stats this year. Yikes. About like Smith's. Pats must need an upgrade at QB. How could they ever win with a QB putting up numbers like this?

57.1 completion %
1,480 yards
8 TD
4 Int
79.8 Rating
17 Passes over 20 yards
3 passes over 40 yards
6.2 yds/ attempt

Seriously. You haters need to accept that Smith is our quarterback and just enjoy us being 6-0 instead of the constant complaining about him.

Let's check career stats, and see who's the better QB. What? I don't have to since Alex is barely average in comparison.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:29 AM   #22
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Stats mean jack.

If you watch any of these QBs and come away thinking that there isn't adifference, you're a moron.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:32 AM   #23
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So do you guys really think the Chiefs are 6-0 with GS?

What QB do you think should be starting right now?

Are you guys more upset that AS is the starting QB or are you more upset at the cost of the trade?

What should the Chiefs have done at QB?
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:35 AM   #24
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And that's even more scary since Alex supposedly throws "high percentage" passes.

Look, I'm as happy as anyone that we got Alex and still believe he was the best option we had for the franchise at this time. Without him, there's no way we'd be at 6-0, and the resurrection of Arrowhead alone is worth that.

I just really hope that we still look for a young QB in the draft next year (unless they really think Bray has the chance).
Yeah. Pretty much what I am saying. He is our best option at this time and I still want to develop Bray or draft out qbotf. I'm not homer enough to believe Alex is that at all. But Pioli wasted a lot of years for a bunch of very talented players, and Alex Smith gives us a chance to compete while those players are still in their prime.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:39 AM   #25
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Funny how he actually compares the YPA and says: eh, same.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:42 AM   #26
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Kaepernick has been dogshit this year, but Wilson and Luck are both top 10 QBs on PFF.

Alex is 23rd. Big difference.

Alex is 24th in air yards (not surprising, since almost every big pass play he's "produced" involves significant YAC after an easy throw throw). Wilson is 12th, Luck is 17th. Again, big difference.

Then of course there's the deep completions (20+). Wilson is a phenomenal downfield passer. He's 13 for 25 on passes over 20 yards this year. Luck is only 8 for 24, but I'll take that over Alex's 4 for 11. And while we're at it, another important stat: Alex is one of only 3 QBs who have not thrown a TD pass over 20 yards this year. Wilson has FIVE. Huge difference.

Additionally, you don't even really need complicated ratings systems to understand that Alex is 30th in the NFL in completion percentage, while Luck and Wilson are 16th and 17th. That's a massive difference.

The Colts are 5th in third down percentage. The Chiefs are 28th. Yup, nothing to do with Alex vs Luck at all.

I hate homers.
I'm not going to argue to much, i wasn't on the GS bandwagon and i didn't really care for the AS trade and still don't like the price. BUT if people are saying to open their eyes and see the difference between say wilson and smith and not go off stats, then you also have to open your eyes and realize the weapons that they have compared to us. Wilson for example does have quite a few impressive long passes but he's also got a legitimate burner that is proven in rice and throw in tate and baldwin who are both very good complimentary receivers and then zach miller at TE who is still upper half of the league at TE.

We have 1 legitimate weapon on the outside and that is bowe who struggles to get open and AS is not a risk taker like the other QB's (which annoys me just as much as the next guy but what happens if he takes those risks like cassel did and starts loosing us games, do the fans revolt again?)

I still don't think AS will ever stretch the field like any of the other 3 but the other 3 do have alot more luxurious accessories to play with.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:42 AM   #27
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Rookies? Wow. I could have sworn that all 3 of them were starters in the NFL last year. Since they are all in their second season as starter, and considered to be the best up and coming quarterbacks in the league, I think it's fair to make the comparison. Especially with Kaep since he took his starting job from Alex and is not putting up any better numbers than him. Yes we all wish we had our own Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. And I would have to say that I wish we had tanked a year sooner and drafted Luck. But Smith is still a huge upgrade over Cassel and for now I will settle for that. Hopefully Either Bray develops into our QBOTF or we draft one soon. But until then, Alex Smith is good enough to make this team 6 and 0 and that works for me.


I think it is great that we are 6-0 just put a hurt on the Raiders and everything. However if we don't win in the playoffs MOTHER **** ALEX SMITH and we wasted two second round draft picks on a worthless piece of shit quarterback.

Nothing else matters win in the playoffs and then figure out if he was worth it.

So far I haven't seen anything of Alex Smith to get me excited about going into the playoffs. He is a dump off king and his shit smells.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:46 AM   #28
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We're now pimping Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin as some kind of upper echelon receiver corps?

Please. Bowe, Avery and yes, even McCluster, are comparable.

Those guys have combined for ONE 1,000-yard season, and it came 4 years ago.

The main difference in their receivers and ours is the QB throwing the ball.
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Old 10-19-2013, 10:03 AM   #29
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What is missing is eye test and players around them. All the other qbs have better lines blocking, better wr's and te's as well. If you watch Luck and Wilson there is no way you don't see they are better than Alex. I like Alex but he is not the guy we need. He is for now but not in the near future.
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Old 10-19-2013, 10:08 AM   #30
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I only skimmed the article, but there's not a GM in the league that would choose Smith over Luck or Wilson.
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