*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's no way they got an insurance policy on Soria with his injury history.

The folks that were writing those policies stopped doing so or made them prohibitively expensive years ago. At most, you get tiny little policies that partially cover injuries with exclusions all over the place.

Most guys are covered for accidents off the field these days, but virtually nobody (especially pitchers) are insured against actual pitching injuries anymore. The incident rates are just way too high to effectively pool the risk without charging so much for the policy that it's just not worthwhile for the teams to purchase them.

They had one on Vargas.

[tyton75]

O'Brien is catching?!? I'll bet that's interesting to see!

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I can't imagine paying $17 million for 50 innings is much of a best case scenario.

It's better than paying $17 million for 130 innings, 20 losses, 4.5 ERA, and a whip of 1.5.

[cosmo20002]

Alex Gordon will play center field Saturday

— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) March 8, 2017

I know Ned said he was going to do this. I just don't really get it.

[Prison Bitch]

Outstanding article on JD Martinez over at FG. How he transformed from a shitty 4th OF into an all star masher. We here suggested it might've been thanks to the miracle of science but he says it's because he started hitting fly balls all the time. Just like Josh Donaldson did to change his career. (Eric Hosmer, listen!!!!)

In 2016, batters hit .241 with a .715 slugging mark and a wRC+ of 139 on fly balls versus a .238 average, .258 slugging mark and of wRC+ of 27 on ground balls.

"My swing was a line drive [back to] the pitcher,” Martinez said. “I’d go out there and hit the ball perfectly, and it’s [a] single. Why is my perfect swing a single?

“You still talk to coaches ‘Oh, you want a line drive right up the middle. Right off the back of the [L-screen in batting practice].’ OK, well that’s a ****ing single. To me, the numbers don’t lie. The balls in the air play more.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-m...point-is-near/

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Outstanding article on JD Martinez over at FG. How he transformed from a shitty 4th OF into an all star masher. We here suggested it might've been thanks to the miracle of science but he says it's because he started hitting fly balls all the time. Just like Josh Donaldson did to change his career. (Eric Hosmer, listen!!!!)

In 2016, batters hit .241 with a .715 slugging mark and a wRC+ of 139 on fly balls versus a .238 average, .258 slugging mark and of wRC+ of 27 on ground balls.

"My swing was a line drive [back to] the pitcher,” Martinez said. “I’d go out there and hit the ball perfectly, and it’s [a] single. Why is my perfect swing a single?

“You still talk to coaches ‘Oh, you want a line drive right up the middle. Right off the back of the [L-screen in batting practice].’ OK, well that’s a ****ing single. To me, the numbers don’t lie. The balls in the air play more.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-m...point-is-near/

There is a huge shift in philosophies, the line drive up the middle aka Gary Ward approach is losing favor. Here is Josh Donaldson trashing the technique.

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2014/11/22/...on-via-twitter

[Prison Bitch]

Hoz was #2 of 146 qualifiers in groundball rate, surrounded by the Denard Spans, Yunel Escobars, Brett Gardners of the world. And STILL hit 25 jacks. With his power he should be 30+ for the next 5 years easy


Good news: it's something you can change. See others. FG suspects someone is going to tap into this when they sign Hosmer

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

FG suspects someone is going to tap into this when they sign Hosmer

They'd need to negotiate the resignation of his brother as his personal hitting coach.

[Chiefspants]

Gut feeling. This will happen once Hos signs to a big market team and disappoints his first year. Once he's not the face of a small market franchise and is getting BLITZED with criticism from a big market, he'll be spurred into a change.

I doubt it happens in KC. He's a star here, I don't think he sees any real reason to change his game.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

There is a huge shift in philosophies, the line drive up the middle aka Gary Ward approach is losing favor. Here is Josh Donaldson trashing the technique.

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2014/11/22/...on-via-twitter

I do think that Donaldson is one of the last people that should be telling people how to hit.

For the vast majority of people that try that extremely exaggerated 'hip load' thing he does, that's just going to create too much noise in their swing.

Now don't get me wrong, that 2nd guy is an absolute idiot. He's essentially teaching people how to lock themselves up - it's the Jason Heyward school of killing your natural power (someone should seriously find who started teaching Heyward to swing a bat in 2013 and murder him. Slowly). But there's a massive middle ground between what that goofy idiot is teaching and what Donaldson does (which for me would feel completely out of control).

I don't think most people can hit like Donaldson. I don't think it would hurt to try as an extreme attempt at changing your swing plane but I think most people, to sustain success, would end up gravitating towards a middle ground.

Donaldson's swing is just raw force; it's a fun swing to be able to manage but A) I don't think it will age well (whereas a guy who's swing I absolutely love - Beltran's - has aged well precisely because I think it is technically damn near perfect) and B) Very few guys have the kind of bat control to actually make that work. His ability to guide the bathead with that front arm locked and with that severe weight transfer tells me that he has some of the most powerful yet flexible wrists in the game.

Sure, it may have been a mechanical adjustment that allowed him to capitalize on that, but it's still just raw physical ability that allows him to succeed with it, an ability that most don't have.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Gut feeling. This will happen once Hos signs to a big market team and disappoints his first year. Once he's not the face of a small market franchise and is getting BLITZED with criticism from a big market, he'll be spurred into a change.

I doubt it happens in KC. He's a star here, I don't think he sees any real reason to change his game.

Hosmer's hands aren't that fast. He could make some changes that would allow him to unlock some power, but it would come at the expense of something else.

I don't see anything Hosmer can do to that would be akin to what Donaldson did - changes that just made him a flat out better hitter. Hosmer can make himself a different hitter, but I just don't think the physical ability is there to be a true all-around, dynamic offensive force.

Hosmer has the eye to be great but I don't know that the physical tools are there as a hitter. Moustakas, OTOH, could be a .285 hitter with 30 HR pop. With him I just eventually start to wonder if injuries haven't cost him too much development time and/or the basic elasticity that allows these guys to really transfer power through their core.

[Prison Bitch]

Funny thing: JD ranked #3 of 146 in BABIP (.378) despite hitting all those fly balls. Hosmer, if you're worried about your batting avg suffering when you stop pounding the ball into the ground, don't

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Funny thing: JD ranked #3 of 146 in BABIP (.378) despite hitting all those fly balls. Hosmer, if you're worried about your batting avg suffering when you stop pounding the ball into the ground, don't

Yeah but last year Martinez's fly ball percentage also fell a ton from the year before. And in the two years with Detroit where he's had a fairly typical FB rate, he's had a BABIP of about .380 (which is crazy). In the year his FB rate went up, his BABIP dropped by about 30 point.

He's still a fly ball hitter, but let's not act like he's Brandon Moss out there. Martinez in most years has presented a pretty average batted ball profile; with the exception of his 2015 season, his remaining career has been that of an almost dead average 'style' hitter. He's not an extreme fly ball hitter by any stretch. He's just a pretty normal hitter who manages to hit the ball quite hard.

If you're hitting fly balls, your BABIP will either drop or is a product of raw dumb luck. It's the nature of the batted ball profile - by it's very definition, a fly ball in play is going to be caught a hell of a lot more often than not.

But the question is whether or not a swing that is looking for more fly balls will A) put more of them over the fence and B) turn some of those grounders into line-drives (with their crazy-high BABIP; something like .700 IIRC).

It's just odd to see Martinez saying "screw fly ball rates; fly balls are good" when in fact, he's not really a fly ball hitter. He's just a guy that hits the ball really goddamn hard.

[Prison Bitch]

Sounds like you're using chicken-and-egg reasoning. Is he hitting it harder leading to my flyballs, or is he trying to hit more fly balls and swinging harder?


He started lofting the ball concurrent when he started pulling it. Which is what many of us have been screaming at Hos. Pull the damn ball! Quit protecting 2-2 and slapping oppo field singles. That's for Nori Aoki and Alcides

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hosmer's hands aren't that fast. He could make some changes that would allow him to unlock some power, but it would come at the expense of something else.

I don't see anything Hosmer can do to that would be akin to what Donaldson did - changes that just made him a flat out better hitter. Hosmer can make himself a different hitter, but I just don't think the physical ability is there to be a true all-around, dynamic offensive force.

Hosmer has the eye to be great but I don't know that the physical tools are there as a hitter. Moustakas, OTOH, could be a .285 hitter with 30 HR pop. With him I just eventually start to wonder if injuries haven't cost him too much development time and/or the basic elasticity that allows these guys to really transfer power through their core.

Hos could definitely take some noise out of his swing. This has been an issue since his rookie season and he's shown no desire to change it.

Making his swing more compact won't make him into Donaldson, but it will likely help cut down his patented two month slump where he goes full Kolton Wong. If he maintains his .850/.875 OPS he's flashed at different points in almost every season since he came to the Royals, he'd become a much more reliable component to any team.

His defense needs just as much work, and is set to decline rapidly with age (his refusal to rely on fundamentals due to his quick hands is going to start hurting soon). Time will tell if he's willing to change either of these flaws in his game, and he's been happy to let his sheer athleticism hide his deficits up to this point.