Baker's Dozen of Draft Donuts

[kccrow]

This started out as a bulleted list of things I think about in addressing the draft. I ended up with 13 bullets that reminded me of donuts. Maybe I've had a few too many brews... Feel free to argue with them or add to them.

Rule 1: If you need a starting QB, draft him in round 1.
Don't expect to get one anywhere else. If a QB doesn't have a first round grade, then he isn't likely going to become a starter. The odds go from bad to almost impossible once you get outside the top half of round 2. If you get one outside of round 1, consider yourself extremely fortunate, nearly to the point of you've won the lotto lucky.

Rule 2: Don't draft a backup QB in any round higher than round 4.
Why waste a premium pick on a backup at any position unless he's going to take over for an incumbent starter within two years? With that said, spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seldom results in a starting caliber QB. Don't waste the pick.

Rule 3: Never draft an OL in the top 15 picks.
If you're drafting in the top 15, you need skill players that can make an impact for your football team. Get those guys and a serviceable offensive line. The Pittsburgh Steelers are time-tested proof that you don't have to go get lineman really early. Its a myth in the NFL that you need an All-Pro left tackle. It is nice, but far from necessary. Don't go chasing fool's gold. The best teams normally have average tackles, and you can get those types in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Guards can be had in every draft in the 3rd through 5th rounds. Unless he's a plug-and-play immediate starter, don't go chasing after guards early either. I played a long time as a lineman, and I struggle with this one.

Rule 4: Never draft a RB in the first 2 rounds.
There are always a plethora of serviceable backs available in the 3rd round or later of every draft. Additionally, backs have a short shelf life. Don't spend premium picks on a position you have to fill regularly and don't need a super star at to win games in the NFL. Remember, the NFL is a passing league, and passing effectively is the most critical statistic in correlation with win percentage.

Rule 5: Always draft production over potential in Round 1.
The NFL is a win now league, not a wait and see league. The guys that produce generally continue to produce. While you can catch lightning in a bottle, the sure thing is always the best thing. It is critical that round 1 yields a starter, don't waste the pick. Take your chances later. Watch tape, not stop watches.

Rule 6: Don't draft special teams players in the first 3 rounds.
Most of the time, you have 7 picks so why waste the ones you want to try and get starters out of on special teamers? You can fill your roster and get great kickers in round 4-7. Teams that forget this fact hurt their team's growth more often than not.

Rule 7: Draft for Scheme, not for Skills.
You're running a football team that must gel as a single unit. Draft players that fit what you're trying to do as a football team. If you draft players that don't fit because of measurable attributes and then try to adapt to them, you're going to fail.

Rule 8: Always draft to throw the ball or stop the pass first.
If you're a bad team, chances are you can't do either of these effectively. The only way to improve is to do this. Don't adhere to the philosophy that you need to run the ball and stop the run, it's been proven to be false in the NFL for over 25 years. That means you need a QB, WRs, and Pass Rushers before all else.

Rule 9: Draft WRs that run good routes and catch with their hands.
It doesn't really matter how fast they run (to an extent), how high they jump, nor any other metric, what matters most is that they can create separation and catch the ball. Drafting based primarily on speed more often hurts than helps. If in doubt, drafting for size is better.

Rule 10: Draft BPA at a Position of Need.
Never adhere to the philosophy that you draft the best player available, because that simply is not and should not be the case. If you do not have an immediate or near future need for a position, you shouldn't make a pick that won't improve your football team. If you're confident, a trade down attempt should be made. If that fails, improve your team. Remember though, look about 2 years into the future when projecting need. Remember, a player is only a reach in the eyes of pundits. If you need him, he's up on your board, and he fits your scheme, draft him.

Rule 11: Draft DL and OL that get off the snap quickly.
Nothing is more important than how quickly a player can release off the snap of the ball, and these two areas are most critical. To win at the point, you have to be the first to the point. Dumb it way down and think about who wins an arm wrestling match. Gaining initial leverage is everything.

Rule 12: Never draft a LB that can't cover.
No matter the scheme, you give away your defensive tendencies easily by not having LBs that can cover. If you run a 4-3 and you have a thumper at ILB, I'm going to execute the middle zone with crosses and inside hitches all day long. If you have a 3-4 and you rush an OLB most of the time because he is a liability in coverage, I'm going to swing to that flat more often. When you overcompensate to take those things away with other players, it leaves their responsibilities open and I adjust. LBs are undervalued, because they can dictate much of what the defense is able to do.

Rule 13: Draft physical, confident players.
All the athleticism or size in the world matters little if that player's demeanor is wrong. You have to draft physical, confident football players. Physical players show up on tape. If a corner won't stick his nose into a pile and try to take down a running back, don't draft him. I could go on, just make sure the player wants it.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Did you read at all? I very much said if you find one later you're very lucky. You do realize, and I know this is hard, that there have been like about 10 somewhat successful QBs in the NFL that were drafted outside of round 1 right? By successful, I'm not talking Trent Dilfer lucky as a mother****er to have been on a great team and won a Super Bowl successful. I'm talking about sustained on-the-field performance at the position.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Rule 3: Never draft an OL in the top 15 picks.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

LOL Who is that?

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

LOL Who is that?

Tavaris Jackson.

Backup QB of the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks.

Drafted in the 2nd Round.

[kccrow]

this thread is getting overran by large images of ugly dudes.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Rule 4: Never draft a RB in the first 2 rounds.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Tavaris Jackson.

Backup QB of the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks.

Drafted in the 2nd Round.

Drafted not by the team he was on. He was dumped to the curb and the Seahawks picked him up like dirty laundry to fill a need. They didn't waste a pick on him, which is smart.

Similarly, the Baltimore Ravens started a #7 overall pick at LT in the 2013 SB, but they didn't draft him. That is smart. They picked up someone else's bad decision on the cheap and won with it.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Seattle spent a 4th and conditional 2012 pick on him.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

You are ****ing high and stupid if you don't.

You do know what an offensive tackle does, what he defends against, and the skill set he needs to possess to effectively play at the NFL level right?

Tell me, other than the QB, what position requires/needs more from to be effective than the offensive tackle?

Look up the definition of a skill position player.

In the meantime, since you're such a vegan, how about you shove a cactus up your ****ing ass

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Rule 5: Always draft production over potential in Round 1.

[kccrow]

You can't use examples of player the team didn't draft to try and prove me wrong. I've got a thread dedicated to rules about drafting players and your dumping on it with primarily free agent acquisitions and trades. The only legitimate one was your first one, but that is more the exception than the rule. Come on Sac, you're better than this man.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Not only was he productive in Junior College, but he also had 22.5 sacks in 2 seasons at West Virginia. The entire world knew he was a productive pass rusher, but wanted to see him improve against the run. I'd say a bad example of trying to show poor production in college.

The single best example to go against my theory is Dontari Poe. Shit production at a low-level D1 school, but got drafted way high because he was huge and fast.

There ARE exceptions to these rules. You could "theoretically" prove me wrong on EVERY single one. But, you draft on measurables over the next 10 years and I'll follow these rules and we'll see who'd have a better football team. That's the important part. You can take shots here and there, but I think you can see clearly that the Al Davis way of drafting doesn't work worth a shit.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Rule 6: Don't draft special teams players in the first 3 rounds.

(Okay, so Turbin was fourth round, but he was an early fourth round and first of two picks in that round for the Seahawks. He's a beast nonetheless.)

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Rule 7: Draft for Scheme, not for Skills.

Wagner is undersized to play middle linebacker in the NFL. - NFL.com

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

(Okay, so Turbin was fourth round, but he was an early fourth round and first of two picks in that round for the Seahawks. He's a beast nonetheless.)

And even then, its okay. I mean, who cares if you would have taken him at the very end of round 3, if he really fits what you want to do. Value matters. The important thing is, why draft a kicker in round 1, when you can get a very good one in round 5? It doesn't make good sense. You shouldn't draft a punter in round 3 if you can get a very good one in round 7. Do I care that I have the best punter in the game? Nope. I care that I have a punter good enough to help my football team win games.

Back in 2012 I had Bryan Anger rated as the best punter in the draft, but would I have taken him at the top of round 3? Not a chance in hell. Not when there are Sam Koch types out there every year in round 6.