Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can!

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

KCrockaholic · 08-05-2015, 01:04 PM

If we get 8 wins then blow the whole ****ing thing up again and ****ing draft a QB. There's no other excuse for this team to win less than 9 games.

Mother****erJones · 08-05-2015, 01:09 PM

Ya, no shit. I mean we won 9 games last year facing the NFC West. Also Alex missed the finale. JC was hurt a lot and berry had cancer. We lost top run defenders at every level. 8 wins? Shit will have to terribly wrong and then they need to say **** it and find a new QB.

KCTitus · 08-05-2015, 01:47 PM

Quote:

...In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down....

Its like reliving the Marty years all over again...

**The Franchise** · 08-05-2015, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

If we get 8 wins then blow the whole ****ing thing up again and ****ing draft a QB. There's no other excuse for this team to win less than 9 games.

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

**ptlyon** · 08-05-2015, 01:54 PM

We are talking about Arrowhead, yes?

stevieray · 08-05-2015, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCTitus

Its like reliving the Marty years all over again...

I loathe that type of play calling

Third and eight? screen pass!

**Bufkin** · 08-05-2015, 01:57 PM

Amazing that there's still people who have disdain for Alex Smith. In this league, it can be extremely difficult to find an average QB, let alone one like Smith who has an unheard of turnover ratio. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but nobody is. If you rely on an elite running back and a solid defense like the Chiefs do, you really can't ask for much more than what Smith is providing.

**ptlyon** · 08-05-2015, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bufkin

If you rely on an elite running back and a solid defense like the Chiefs do, you really can't ask for much more than what Smith is providing.

"Hey, Alex, can we just get a ****ing touchdown pass? Thanks buddy! "

**Dave Lane** · 08-05-2015, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

I've got my car warmed up.

**Dave Lane** · 08-05-2015, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

I loathe that type of play calling

Third and eight? screen pass!

2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Awesome.

KCrockaholic · 08-05-2015, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

I guess that's what I meant, I was just frustrated by the FO article. But the point would obviously be to find a better QB than Alex Smith. Which means drafting one. Which means possible growing pains for a year, or two. Unfortunately for every Wilson and Roethlisberger there's a Brees and Eli Manning.

**The Franchise** · 08-05-2015, 02:13 PM

This is the year for Alex Smith to show that he can lead this team deep in the playoffs.

He's got the defense. We didn't stick him with some rookie WR who has to learn everything. We gave him the best available WR who knew the offense. He's got a top 5 RB behind him and a top 5 TE to dink and dunk too. Yeah Wilson, Thomas and Conley aren't the greatest 2, 3 and 4 WRs to play with....but they're chock full of ability. The only downfall is the offensive line and it "should" be better than last year.

Unless major injuries occur.....this is Alex's year to win or get the **** off of this team.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

I guess that's what I meant, I was just frustrated by the FO article. But the point would obviously be to find a better QB than Alex Smith. Which means drafting one. Which means possible growing pains for a year, or two. Unfortunately for every Wilson and Roethlisberger there's a Brees and Eli Manning.

I'm lost. There are 7 Super Bowl rings between those qb's. Who are the bad ones?

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

This is the year for Alex Smith to show that he can lead this team deep in the playoffs.

He's got the defense. We didn't stick him with some rookie WR who has to learn everything. We gave him the best available WR who knew the offense. He's got a top 5 RB behind him and a top 5 TE to dink and dunk too. Yeah Wilson, Thomas and Conley aren't the greatest 2, 3 and 4 WRs to play with....but they're chock full of ability. The only downfall is the offensive line and it "should" be better than last year.

Unless major injuries occur.....this is Alex's year to win or get the **** off of this team.

And I do think if Alex doesn't show major nuts this year Andy will Donovan McMabb his ass.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1461379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,920

08-05-2015, 01:04 PM	#2
KCrockaholic Sarcasm Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Olathe Casino cash: $4702900	If we get 8 wins then blow the whole **ing thing up again and **ing draft a QB. There's no other excuse for this team to win less than 9 games.
Posts: 21,133

08-05-2015, 01:54 PM	#6
ptlyon Bono & Grbac wasn't enough Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Sioux City, IA Casino cash: $12943829	We are talking about Arrowhead, yes? __________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Advertise here: $19.99 a month
Posts: 33,737

08-05-2015, 02:13 PM	#13
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2945047	This is the year for Alex Smith to show that he can lead this team deep in the playoffs. He's got the defense. We didn't stick him with some rookie WR who has to learn everything. We gave him the best available WR who knew the offense. He's got a top 5 RB behind him and a top 5 TE to dink and dunk too. Yeah Wilson, Thomas and Conley aren't the greatest 2, 3 and 4 WRs to play with....but they're chock full of ability. The only downfall is the offensive line and it "should" be better than last year. Unless major injuries occur.....this is Alex's year to win or get the **** off of this team.
Posts: 92,208