10-6 might be good enough to make the playoffs

**cdcox** · 11-15-2005, 01:09 AM

I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it.

My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.

SoCalBronco · 11-15-2005, 01:15 AM

The AFC has become very cutthroat the last couple years. 9-7 doesnt come close to cutting it anymore. 10-6 has only been good enough to get us a couple trips into that damn dome in Indy. Meanwhile 8-8 wins you divisions in some parts of the NFC. Damn.

**cdcox** · 11-15-2005, 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoCalBronco

The AFC has become very cutthroat the last couple years. 9-7 doesnt come close to cutting it anymore. 10-6 has only been good enough to get us a couple trips into that damn dome in Indy. Meanwhile 8-8 wins you divisions in some parts of the NFC. Damn.

Chicago will probaly have more than 8 wins this year. The division to watch is the AFC east, where 8 wins by NE would more than likely take the division (65% of the time). Other teams in that division would most likely need 9 wins because of the tiebreakers.

MadMax · 11-15-2005, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it.

My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.

Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?

tk13 · 11-15-2005, 01:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadMax

Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?

If we ran the table against the schedule we face to actually get in? Heck yeah.

MadMax · 11-15-2005, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

If we ran the table against the schedule we face to actually get in? Heck yeah.

Ok! I'd take that bet and raise you whatever! This team absolutely sucks! There are however bright spots.. ie LJ. ummm Mitchel, Allens fun to watch, DJ will be a player in the NFL, I will miss Priest,Trich,Roaf, And Shields...I'm just saying after 30 + years this shit gets really old... Sad part being I have NO choice in the team I support just like you guys.

**cdcox** · 11-15-2005, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadMax

Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?

NO. In fact, I wouldn't bet a nickle on them making 10-6 or even making the playoffs.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 11-15-2005, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadMax

Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?

Took the words right out of my mouth. Or close to it anyway. Anyone who is still holding out hope for a playoff appearance by this team is dreaming. Mark my post.

tk13 · 11-15-2005, 01:30 AM

Well, if you want a positive spin on it... First of all we take care of business in Houston, which if we don't do that it's over anyway. After that, we just run the table at Arrowhead, and split the road games. We do that, we're 11-5. Those four home games are all gonna be tough though, no doubt. Even if we dropped one of them we could finish 3-1 at home and split those road games... we'd be 10-6. I really think we're a bit behind the 8 ball right now, but I don't think we're dead yet. If we just take care of business at home, we'll give ourselves a shot at least.

MadMax · 11-15-2005, 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

Well, if you want a positive spin on it... First of all we take care of business in Houston, which if we don't do that it's over anyway. After that, we just run the table at Arrowhead, and split the road games. We do that, we're 11-5. Those four home games are all gonna be tough though, no doubt. Even if we dropped one of them we could finish 3-1 at home and split those road games... we'd be 10-6. I really think we're a bit behind the 8 ball right now, but I don't think we're dead yet. If we just take care of business at home, we'll give ourselves a shot at least.

Ok! TK first I have to ask how long??? Sorry that is a question I need to kmow before I argue any longer lol It beats you down after a while It is true....

Gaz · 11-15-2005, 06:51 AM

10-6 might get a team in the playoffs, but I do not see the Chiefs going 10-6 with this Offense.

And whodathunk it would be the Offense that hobbled us this season?

Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

I fear that the “window of opportunity” was closed by the injuries to Roaf & Shields.

I will remain hopeful [because hope does not require a reasoned, logical foundation] until we are mathematically eliminated, but I just cannot see us in the playoffs with this OL this season.

xoxo~
Gaz
Clinging to hope, but facing cold, hard reality.

FringeNC · 11-15-2005, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaz

10-6 might get a team in the playoffs, but I do not see the Chiefs going 10-6 with this Offense.

And whodathunk it would be the Offense that hobbled us this season?

Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

I fear that the “window of opportunity” was closed by the injuries to Roaf & Shields.

I will remain hopeful [because hope does not require a reasoned, logical foundation] until we are mathematically eliminated, but I just cannot see us in the playoffs with this OL this season.

xoxo~
Gaz
Clinging to hope, but facing cold, hard reality.

Wretched offense? Sure, they were wretched against Buffalo, but other than that one outlier? Look at the season stats. And when Sampson/Roaf take over for Black....

wolfpack0735 · 11-15-2005, 07:58 AM

there`s hope they`ll make the playoffs. there`s hope they will win in the playoffs,with this O-line and theres always hope i`ll win the lotto. both have about the same odds it seems. but like buying latto tickets i`ll keep hoping the chiefs make the playoffs.

Gaz · 11-15-2005, 08:01 AM

The Offense has been inconsistent since the season opener. They have been a pale shadow of their former selves.

Personally, I doubt Roaf will be back. And even if he is, he will not be as effective. Better than Black? Sure. Good enough for this Offense to return to form? I doubt it.

And Sampson [despite his name] is hardly cause for celebration. He has not been able to get onto the field. He is unlikely to elevate our crappy OL when/if he does play.

I think wretched is appropriate.

xoxo~
Gaz
Not getting value from the O.

Extra Point · 11-15-2005, 08:07 AM

10-6 would be good enough to make the playoffs, in the NFC East. I thought a month ago that 9-7 was going to be the 2005 season record. It's more like 7-9 or 6-10.

I hope that there will be an implosion between now and the first day of spring. Thanks, Dick, it's been interesting. Al, you've morphed into Don Coryell without the young linemen. Carl, you wore out the Super Bowl-bound sports car; it needs to be overhauled, because you didn't change the oil or lube the suspension. Guys, time for you and your friends to go. Gun, Frank Jr., you can stay.

Romeo Crennel, you want the job of head coach? Bill Bellichik, would you like to be our new GM?

11-15-2005, 01:09 AM	Topic Starter
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2361769	10-6 might be good enough to make the playoffs I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it. My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.
Posts: 45,536

11-15-2005, 01:15 AM	#2
SoCalBronco Nixonite Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Arcadia, CA Casino cash: $10006115	The AFC has become very cutthroat the last couple years. 9-7 doesnt come close to cutting it anymore. 10-6 has only been good enough to get us a couple trips into that damn dome in Indy. Meanwhile 8-8 wins you divisions in some parts of the NFC. Damn.
Posts: 1,054

11-15-2005, 01:30 AM	#9
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $2002500	Well, if you want a positive spin on it... First of all we take care of business in Houston, which if we don't do that it's over anyway. After that, we just run the table at Arrowhead, and split the road games. We do that, we're 11-5. Those four home games are all gonna be tough though, no doubt. Even if we dropped one of them we could finish 3-1 at home and split those road games... we'd be 10-6. I really think we're a bit behind the 8 ball right now, but I don't think we're dead yet. If we just take care of business at home, we'll give ourselves a shot at least.
Posts: 54,929

11-15-2005, 06:51 AM	#11
Gaz Defense Homer Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Rancho Gaz Casino cash: $10010793	Unfortunately... 10-6 might get a team in the playoffs, but I do not see the Chiefs going 10-6 with this Offense. And whodathunk it would be the Offense that hobbled us this season? Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline. Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense. The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen. I fear that the “window of opportunity” was closed by the injuries to Roaf & Shields. I will remain hopeful [because hope does not require a reasoned, logical foundation] until we are mathematically eliminated, but I just cannot see us in the playoffs with this OL this season. xoxo~ Gaz Clinging to hope, but facing cold, hard reality.
Posts: 5,911

11-15-2005, 07:58 AM	#13
wolfpack0735 buttnaked is the only way tobe Join Date: May 2001 Location: B/T lost & nowhere in ks. Casino cash: $10008827	there`s hope they`ll make the playoffs. there`s hope they will win in the playoffs,with this O-line and theres always hope i`ll win the lotto. both have about the same odds it seems. but like buying latto tickets i`ll keep hoping the chiefs make the playoffs. __________________ Three most important things in life... Chiefs football, Beer and women, all in that order!! Adopt - A - Chief Willie Lanier Old enough to remember WHAT a Super Bowl is!!
Posts: 534

11-15-2005, 08:01 AM	#14
Gaz Defense Homer Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Rancho Gaz Casino cash: $10010793	A skunk by any other name... The Offense has been inconsistent since the season opener. They have been a pale shadow of their former selves. Personally, I doubt Roaf will be back. And even if he is, he will not be as effective. Better than Black? Sure. Good enough for this Offense to return to form? I doubt it. And Sampson [despite his name] is hardly cause for celebration. He has not been able to get onto the field. He is unlikely to elevate our crappy OL when/if he does play. I think wretched is appropriate. xoxo~ Gaz Not getting value from the O.
Posts: 5,911

11-15-2005, 08:07 AM	#15
Extra Point MVP Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Prairie Village, KS Casino cash: $10004900	10-6 would be good enough to make the playoffs, in the NFC East. I thought a month ago that 9-7 was going to be the 2005 season record. It's more like 7-9 or 6-10. I hope that there will be an implosion between now and the first day of spring. Thanks, Dick, it's been interesting. Al, you've morphed into Don Coryell without the young linemen. Carl, you wore out the Super Bowl-bound sports car; it needs to be overhauled, because you didn't change the oil or lube the suspension. Guys, time for you and your friends to go. Gun, Frank Jr., you can stay. Romeo Crennel, you want the job of head coach? Bill Bellichik, would you like to be our new GM? __________________ "Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." --Satchel Paige
Posts: 7,845