*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

That's a nice signing though I figured he'd be a bit out of place with Duffy and Vargas already in the rotation (both lefties, yes?).

Wood wants a chance to start so I expect he'll get at least some assurances that he'll get a few shots at it before he goes back to the 'pen.

Moore's not going to get caught short on pitchers this year, is he? That's a TON of starting pitching depth, if not exactly the highest ceiling arms.

Royals have Wood.

Looking forward to seeing the billboard advertisement for this one.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Granted none of this was by design (more necessity than anything), but there's a noticeable lack of ceiling in these moves. Hammel, Wood, Maness - even if they work, they're back of the rotation, deep in your bullpen sort of guys.

Because I think most anyone will acknowledge that Hammel was more realistically a 4.00ish ERA pitcher over the last 2 years in Chicago and his arm woes are getting a little more stark. Moreover, he runs out of gas pretty hard in August. The switch to the AL could also easily add another half run to his ERA. If you start from a baseline FIP of around 4.00, add a quarter point to it due to age/injury and another half point due to the switch to the AL, suddenly you're looking at a guy that's pushing around a 5 ERA. Combine that with his second half woes and what's he do for you in October?

The consensus seems to be that Moore is pushing his chips in for one last October run....but to what purpose? Who takes the ball in Game 2? Are they saving bullets in Strahm to transition him to the rotation August? If so, good luck getting through the 8th. Wood is a nice relief arm and a tolerable 4th/5th starter but if he's in your rotation, there's nothing in his history to suggest that you'll be happy giving him the ball in the post-season. Ian Kennedy is a .500 pitcher on a .500 team. Put him on a bad team he'll have a bad record, put him on a good team, he'll have a good record. He's the Alex Smith of starting pitchers; exactly as good as the team around him. He's pretty much your unquestioned #2 but many playoff rotations are sporting that kind of guy in their 4 spot. He just seems mis-cast as a guy that may need to steal you a game in October.

And the system has thinned out enough that there's just not another Zobrist or Cueto trade to be made (and realistically, a deep October push would need both).

This kinda looks like the "Soft Landing" plan. He knows that '18 may end in a thud so rather than just pull the plug, he's trying to get another year where there's meaningful baseball in September and maybe even a nice wild card push, but I just don't see the components needed for a real October run. If he has that one last year of 85-88 wins, perhaps the painful process of rebuilding is a little more palatable than doing so coming off a largely disappointing 81 win title defense.

For this team to work they're going to need a massive break in the form of Staumont/Strahm stepping into the rotation in August/September and pitching lights out like Matz/Syndergaard did for the Mets.

It would take a few breaks, but it's not too unlike the 2014 Royals relying on a 23 year old rookie (Ventura) to step in and fill the #2 role for Ervin Santana (and Yo did that and more in the 2014 postseason). Not only that, because the team put 150 year old Bruce Chen in the rotation that year and watched him flame out like a dying star, they had to turn to an untested Danny Duffy coming off of TJS for significant innings in the summer, and he ended up being our best starter from June through early September.

This team, in order to make one last one, will need to find good fortune somewhere - but honestly, I don't think it would need any more luck than the 2014 Royals caught to get to Game 7 of the World Series.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

For this team to work they're going to need a massive break in the form of Staumont/Strahm stepping into the rotation in August/September and pitching lights out like Matz/Syndergaard did for the Mets.

It would take a few breaks, but it's not too unlike the 2014 Royals relying on a 23 year old rookie (Ventura) to step in and fill the #2 role for Ervin Santana (and Yo did that and more in the 2014 postseason). Not only that, because the team put 150 year old Bruce Chen in the rotation that year and watched him flame out like a dying star, they had to turn to an untested Danny Duffy coming off of TJS for significant innings in the summer, and he ended up being our best starter from June through early September.

This team, in order to make one last one, will need to find good fortune somewhere - but honestly, I don't think it would need any more luck than the 2014 Royals caught to get to Game 7 of the World Series.

But the 2014 Royals didn't rob Peter to pay Paul in Ventura.

The Royals will need that rotation breakout AND need to keep their hammer bullpen intact. Can they do that? Aren't Staumont and Strahm going to be vital to a true lockdown bullpen? Because without those guys locking up the 7th and 8th, Soria and Flynn aren't holding down the fort; those are yeoman relievers, not hammers. Young, Minor and Wood are in the same boat.

Realistically, to match what the '14 Royals did, Staumona and Strahm will need to be world beaters AND someone like Zimmer would have to explode onto the scene. Maybe it's Nate Karns finding his command and finally maximizing his stuff.

It just seems like a lot of moves were made over the last month with an eye on raising the floor without doing anything to really change the ceiling much.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But the 2014 Royals didn't rob Peter to pay Paul in Ventura.

The Royals will need that rotation breakout AND need to keep their hammer bullpen intact. Can they do that? Aren't Staumont and Strahm going to be vital to a true lockdown bullpen? Because without those guys locking up the 7th and 8th, Soria and Flynn aren't holding down the fort; those are yeoman relievers, not hammers. Young, Minor and Wood are in the same boat.

Realistically, to match what the '14 Royals did, Staumona and Strahm will need to be world beaters AND someone like Zimmer would have to explode onto the scene. Maybe it's Nate Karns finding his command and finally maximizing his stuff.

It just seems like a lot of moves were made over the last month with an eye on raising the floor without doing anything to really change the ceiling much.

I don't think both Staumont and Strahm would need to be in the rotation in this scenario. If we're going for my 1990's Disney movie ending, one would be the lockdown guy in the 8th, while the other would be that underscouted firepisser in the rotation who could give us quality innings in October.

Remember, coming into the 2015 playoffs, the Royals didn't have the borg pen they did in 2014, but they did have a deeper one. Madson and Herrera were simply "great" during the season (down from the unhittable borgtrons Herrera and Holland were in 14), and Hoch had been pretty inconsistent coming off of TJS. However, once the playoffs rolled around, having Duffy, Hoch, Madson, Herrera and Davis throwing quality innings after the 5th ended up making the pen more valuable in the 15 postseason than it was in 2014.

Put Flynn, Wood, Hoch (maybe), Maness, 1 of Strahm or Staumont and Herrera in a 17' pen for the postseason, and we at least have similar depth than we did in 2015. Soria bouncing back and Chris Young not pitching like an AARP member would also be monumental to a potential run in October.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

I don't think both Staumont and Strahm would need to be in the rotation in this scenario. If we're going for my 1990's Disney movie ending, one would be the lockdown guy in the 8th, while the other would be that underscouted firepisser in the rotation who could give us quality innings in October.

Remember, coming into the 2015 playoffs, the Royals didn't have the borg pen they did in 2014, but they did have a deeper one. Madson and Herrera were simply "great" during the season (down from the unhittable borgtrons Herrera and Holland were in 14), and Hoch had been pretty inconsistent coming off of TJS. However, having Duffy, Hoch, Madson, Herrera and Davis throwing quality innings after the 5th ended up making the pen more valuable in 15 than 14.

Put Flynn, Wood, Hoch (maybe), 1 of Strahm or Staumont and Herrera in a 17' pen for the postseason, and we at least have similar depth than we did in 2015. Soria bouncing back and Chris Young not pitching like an AARP candidate would also be monumental to a potential run in October.

Yeah but now you're asking Staumont to take a MASSIVE leap. Not just from AA to the majors, but from nominally effective in AA to being a lock down guy in the majors. It's a big ask to take a guy that's torching AA and expect him to be a killer in the AL. Asking a guy that put up a 1.7 WHIP over 120+ innings below AAA to suddenly find his command and become a hammer is....well that's a lot to ask. It's on par with asking Bubba Starling to become a 3 WAR player overnight.

I know Staumont misses bats, but he's done it at a level where simply throwing a lot of balls out of the strike zone will get undisciplined and over-aggressive hitters to strike themselves out. His walk totals bear that out (Christ those are ghastly). Staumont's not a high school arm; he's a college draft pick who's strike zone issues are as bad as anything I've ever seen; can you honestly recall anyone with a K/9 rate over seven who's thrown that many innings? I cannot. That's a 'plan for the worst and hope for the best' kind of profile right there.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah but now you're asking Staumont to take a MASSIVE leap. Not just from AA to the majors, but from nominally effective in AA to being a lock down guy in the majors. It's a big ask to take a guy that's torching AA and expect him to be a killer in the AL. Asking a guy that put up a 1.7 WHIP over 120+ innings below AAA to suddenly find his command and become a hammer is....well that's a lot to ask. It's on par with asking Bubba Starling to become a 3 WAR player overnight.

I know Staumont misses bats, but he's done it at a level where simply throwing a lot of balls out of the strike zone will get undisciplined and over-aggressive hitters to strike themselves out. His walk totals bear that out (Christ those are ghastly). Staumont's not a high school arm; he's a college draft pick who's strike zone issues are as bad as anything I've ever seen; can you honestly recall anyone with a K/9 rate over seven who's thrown that many innings? I cannot. That's a 'plan for the worst and hope for the best' kind of profile right there.

Don't get me wrong. I think this is a 86 win team that's staying home in October, but I do feel that if we can get a couple of lucky breaks like 2014, add bland but impactful guys at the deadline (think Jason Frasor rather than Cueto) we may have a run in us if Duffy, Kennedy and Strahm (you've convinced me about who's more likely to make a jump to the rotation) can lead our rotation in the postseason. Staumont, with luck, could play that Brandon Finnegan smoke and mirrors role (Finny's prominence in October was truly based off of no one knowing who he was). Then just maybe this team has a run in them.

I'll readily admit that this team's likely finish isn't in the playoffs, but honestly, after watching the lightning in the bottle we captured in 14, I don't feel any more down about our chances in 17 than I did then.

Yo could have easily put up his 16 numbers on 14. Relying on an untested pitchers like Ventura and Duffy while hoping Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie wouldn't implode made many write off 2014 for the Royals before it began. I'm not saying we'll have another season like that, but I don't think making the playoffs is untenable for this roster.

[ChiefsCountry]

Royals ceiling is based on Hosmer, Cain, and Moose's production.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Royals ceiling is based on Hosmer, Cain, and Moose's production.

A healthy Cain and a Moose who can puts up a full season of the Balboni like HR start he had last year would do wonders to this team's trajectory.

I fully expect Hos to keep flirting with the .800 OPS mark like he has since he's been a rookie. It is what it is.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

But the 2014 Royals didn't rob Peter to pay Paul in Ventura.

The Royals will need that rotation breakout AND need to keep their hammer bullpen intact. Can they do that? Aren't Staumont and Strahm going to be vital to a true lockdown bullpen? Because without those guys locking up the 7th and 8th, Soria and Flynn aren't holding down the fort; those are yeoman relievers, not hammers. Young, Minor and Wood are in the same boat.

Realistically, to match what the '14 Royals did, Staumona and Strahm will need to be world beaters AND someone like Zimmer would have to explode onto the scene. Maybe it's Nate Karns finding his command and finally maximizing his stuff.

It just seems like a lot of moves were made over the last month with an eye on raising the floor without doing anything to really change the ceiling much.

But what moves could have been made so far to increase the ceiling?

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

But what moves could have been made so far to increase the ceiling?

Trade with the Cards for Matt Adams.

[Great Expectations]

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

But what moves could have been made so far to increase the ceiling?

While I don't think DJ is all out trolling I have a hard time understanding his obsession with coming into a Royals thread every offseason only to tell us that we are worse than we think we are.

Our starting pitching obviously has a lot of question marks, but we also have a lot of depth to address them as the season plays out. That's very important in making it to the postseason and we've seen before what a hot streak can do for you once you get there.

Hasn't their also been a lot of chatter about aces in the post season and how they are overrated? I don't agree with most of that, but there are just as many failed stories there as success stories.

We now have a lot moar power than last year entering the season and depth at pitching.

We certainly aren't the favorites, but we have a decent shot to make the postseason. If we do that'd be 3 postseasons in the past 4 years with 2 AL Championships and one World Championship.

It's been a great stretch.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

But what moves could have been made so far to increase the ceiling?

Probably none. Like I said; it was done more of necessity than design after Ventura died. And these are all 1 and 2 year deals so it's not like there's much in the way of long-term exposure even if these are just soft landing contracts.

I'm not criticizing Moore; mostly speaking clinically regarding the state of the roster. Maybe he could've snagged another lefty reliever like Logan to try to line out a path to the rotation for Strahm, but that may be the end game with Wood. There aren't a lot of high end maneuvers he could've made...

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Trade with the Cards for Matt Adams.

...Well, I mean, apart from that. Matt Adams would put you over the top.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Probably none. Like I said; it was done more of necessity than design after Ventura died. And these are all 1 and 2 year deals so it's not like there's much in the way of long-term exposure even if these are just soft landing contracts.

I'm not criticizing Moore; mostly speaking clinically regarding the state of the roster. Maybe he could've snagged another lefty reliever like Logan to try to line out a path to the rotation for Strahm, but that may be the end game with Wood. There aren't a lot of high end maneuvers he could've made...



...Well, I mean, apart from that. Matt Adams would put you over the top.

Fair enough. And that's the way I was thinking (except for adams) too.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

While I don't think DJ is all out trolling I have a hard time understanding his obsession with coming into a Royals thread every offseason only to tell us that we are worse than we think we are.

Our starting pitching obviously has a lot of question marks, but we also have a lot of depth to address them as the season plays out. That's very important in making it to the postseason and we've seen before what a hot streak can do for you once you get there.

Hasn't their also been a lot of chatter about aces in the post season and how they are overrated? I don't agree with most of that, but there are just as many failed stories there as success stories.

We now have a lot moar power than last year entering the season and depth at pitching.

We certainly aren't the favorites, but we have a decent shot to make the postseason. If we do that'd be 3 postseasons in the past 4 years with 2 AL Championships and one World Championship.

It's been a great stretch.

I said take the over, fella. 85-86 wins is a pretty fair projection; maybe 87 after the Wood signing. I think I'm right in line with most of you on my Royals projections. I've been far more bullish on the Davis and Dyson returns than most of you as well.

You sure bruise easily.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Trade with the Cards for Matt Adams.

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