Way Too Early 2017 Mock

[kccrow]

OFFSEASON PLAN

Spoiler!

Release (incl. Waive/Retirement/Trade/Option)

Nick Foles (QB) - Do not pick up option year (+$10,750,000) - Unless the Chiefs think Foles will take over for Smith, there's no reason to keep him on the roster at that type of price tag. The Chiefs won't pick up that option. They may let it expire and re-sign Foles, but even that seems unlikely.
Jamaal Charles (RB) - Trade for 2018 conditional draft pick (+$7,000,000) - Charles is getting old and those injuries are a factor. If he can show he's got something left by season's end, I think the Chiefs move him and $7 million off the books for some type of compensation. If not, he's going to have to take a significant pay cut or be cut.
Jah Reid (OL) - Release (+$2,075,000) - Reid became insurance after the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz, and Reid hasn't even seen much action with all of the injuries at guard. His salary is needed elsewhere.
Demetrius Harris (TE) - Release (+$1,050,000) - Too many drops and plenty of time to develop, it's time to move on as the Chiefs have several young TE's with equal or better ability in the wings.

Allow to Walk

Albert Wilson (WR) - Lackluster play and the ascention of Tyreek Hill as a rookie makes Wilson easily expendable. A RFA tender is too much to pay for his services in my opinion.
Kendall Reyes (DL) - Chris Jones and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are developing nicely. Dorsey will likely look to add more young depth.
Bishop Sankey (RB) - A backup plan to a backup plan, so unless he makes some significant contribution he's out.
Mike Person (OG) - Not a contributor.
Trey Millard (FB) - Not a contributor.
Kenny Cook (WR) - Not a contributor.

Re-Sign

Eric Berry (S) - 5-years $60,000,000 with $28,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($17,000,000 signing bonus).

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $7.60 m ($4.00 guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.60 m ($7.00 guaranteed base), 2019 - $13.60 m, 2020, $13.60 m, 2021 - $14.60 m

Tryann Mathieu agreed to a 5-year, $62.5 million extension a year ago ($12.5 m/yr w/ $21.25 m guaranteed at signing) to stay with the Cardinals, so that is likely the precedent that Berry's camp will follow. Like with most negotiations, it isn't always the total or average money of the contract, but the guaranteed money. Berry's contract would come in second in average at $12.0 m per, but he'd receive the most guaranteed of any safety to date. Berry is one of the primary leaders on the defense, so his retention is of paramount importance.

Dontari Poe (NT) - 5-years $47,000,000 with $21,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($9,000,000 signing bonus)

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $6.00 m ($4.00 of guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.00 m ($8.00 of guaranteed base), 2019 - $10.00 m, 2020 - $10.00 m, 2021 - 11.00 m

Damon Harrison signed a 5-year $46.25 million deal ($9,250,000/year w/$20 m guaranteed at signing) to go from the Jets to the Giants a year ago, and Poe is every bit as good of a player. It stands to reason that Poe will receive at least a comparable contract. The question would become what teams would forcast him becoming in a 4-3 where he could put more pressure on the QB. With seasons including 4.5 and 6.0 sacks as a NT in a 3-4, teams would likely bet on him being a guy capable of 8+ sacks in a 1-gap scheme, which would put him in the upper echelon of DTs. For those reasons, Poe's value could rise much higher than Harrison's. A good NT is the most essential piece to running a quality 3-4 defense, and the Chiefs have the NFL's best in Dontari Poe. Poe is a must sign.

Dustin Colquitt (P) - 5-year, $20,350,000 Extension, converting $4,000,000 of 2017 money to a signing bonus and guaranteeing another 1,150,000 in 2017 salary and 2,400,000 in 2018 salary for a total of $7.55 million guaranteed.

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $2.80 m, 2018 - $3.25 m, 2019 - $3.25 m, 2020 - $3.65 m, 2021 - $4.05 m, 2022 - -$4.15 m

Colquitt is an easy conversion of cap funding this season through either cut or extension. In this case the Chiefs gain $2.1 million in cap space and maintain Colquitt as one of the highest paid punters in the league as well as having the most guaranteed money through the end of his career.

Daniel Sorensen (SS) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000
James Winchester (LS) - 1-year ERFA tender of $615,000
Cairo Santos (K) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000

Resulting Cap Liabilities: $162,079,345 (versus projected $166,000,000 cap = $3,920,655 cap space, plus potential $5.6 m in rollover from 2016)

DRAFT

1. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State (6'3" 243)

There is no question that the Chiefs need help at inside linebacker heading into 2017. I'm going out on a limb and saying that McMillan will declare for the draft after listening to some of his comments during bowl week. The difference between him staying and going really depends on how badly he wants a tree planted in his name after only garnering 2nd-team All-American honors this season (shameful really). McMillan is one of Ohio State's better players at a position they've had some all-time greats at, and that is not a small statement. This kid is the real deal. He can cover, shed blockers, blitz, hit like a truck, he can do it all. All that while being the unquestioned leader of the Buckeyes' defense, an outstanding student, and an outstanding community volunteer. McMillan could instantly fill the void left by Derrick Johnson, whom I believe will retire following a second Achilles rupture. If the Chiefs have to trade up to get this kid, I'm on board.

2. Hunter Dimick, DE, Utah (6'3" 266)

Dee Ford has stepped up way more than I thought he would in 2016. While his run defense needs to improve much more, he's come a long way since his rookie season when he was running away from the offense. It may be time I eat some crow on Ford, but he has work yet to do until I'm convinced he can carry this over for the long-haul. With Ford's emergence as a threat, pass rusher becomes a less pressing need. However, Hali may just hang them up after 2016, so a third pass rusher is definitely going to be needed. In the same breath, can KC afford to retain some players on defense in the coming years, including Ford? Dimick reminds me of Hali with decent speed, good strength, outstanding technique, and a motor that just doesn't shut down. Not to mention, he lead the PAC-12 with 13.5 sacks in 2016.

3. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado (5'11" 205)

Pick your reasons that Chiefs will likely need to add once again to the defensive backfield, which might include: the KeiVarae Russell debacle, Kenneth Acker not playing well, D.J. White showing a rookie learning curve, Phillip Gaines always being injured, or Steven Nelson looking lost 90% of the time. Awuzie reminds me alot of my guy from last season, D.J. White. He's not huge, but he's menacing in all facets. Sticky in coverage, great tackler, physical, can play special teams, blitzes well from the nickel, and can play the football well enough. This kid can line up anywhere in the defensive backfield. As much as KC runs the nickel, Awuzie might be a perfect addition.

4. Erik Magnuson, OT, Michigan (6'5" 305)

The Chiefs may be needing to free up some cap space and Jah Reid seems like a good candidate for the cut list. If that is the case, the Chiefs will need to go shopping for a backup right tackle/guard candidate. Magnuson has the athleticism and demeanor to stay out at tackle in the NFL, but must clean up some technique issues to be consistent in the NFL. Magnuson is one of the best pass blocking lineman in the Big Ten and is a solid run blocker to boot.

4. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh (6'2" 225) (Projected Comp - Jeff Allen, OG)

With Rudolph deciding to stay in school, I really don't see the need for the Chiefs to jump on a QB overly early in the draft. That said, I'm putting Peterman back into my mock after a short-lived exit. Peterman checks alot of boxes in the Aaron Murray-type of mold having run a pro-style offense and having a good arm and solid mechanics, but perhaps better athleticism and a stronger arm. The Chiefs will likely need a 3rd QB going into 2017 if they don't retain Nick Foles, which doesn't seem likely given the cap restraints.

5. Jeremy Sprinkle, TE, Arkansas (6'5" 256)

The Chiefs have a fairly healthy stable of tight ends, especially receiving tight ends, but they lack a solid all-around tight end opposite Travis Kelce. Sprinkle is not only a reliable pass receiver and solid end-zone threat, but he's a very good blocker that can make contact on the move. He gets used at multiple spots in the Razorback offense, including in tight, split out, and at half-back, so he has some versatility as a blocker/receiver. Sprinkle doesn't have elite quickness and speed to threaten the seam as a number one tight end in the NFL, but he's got very respectable long speed to break away if given the opportunity.

5. De'Veon Smith, RB, Michigan (5'11" 228) (Projected Comp - Chase Daniel, QB)

The Chiefs very well may release or trade Jamaal Charles this offseason and the stable of RBs gets a bit light after Spencer Ware. Smith is a near clone of Ware in that he's a big, strong, powerful back that hits the hole hard and fast. Smith has good vision and is a one-cut-and-go type of back. Smith also catches the ball very well out of the backfield, which is a huge prerequisite in Andy Reid's offense.

6. Forfeited, Anti-Tampering

6. Treyvon Hester, DT, Toledo (6'3" 300) (Projected Comp - Donald Stephenson, OT)

Dontari Poe is set to hit free agency if he doesn't get a contract, and Jaye Howard will have 1 year left on his 2-year deal, plus there could be depth issues if the Chiefs don't retain Kendall Reyes. The Chiefs will need to continue the pipeline on the D-line. Hester is a good sized tackle with disruptive traits, especially a quick first step off the snap. Hester is routinely double and triple-teamed on the front line, so his stat lines don't look gaudy. Looks like a bit quicker version of Jaye Howard. Needs some work on maintaining his area discipline and play recognition, but his motor doesn't seem to stop. Plays with more of a defensive end mentality than a defensive tackle.

6. Isaac Asiata, OG, Utah (6'3" 323) (Projected Comp - Tyvon Branch, SS)

The Chiefs depth at OG, and even its starters, are a bit suspect. Asiata is a ball of energy on the offensive line with excellent foot speed and great bulk for the position. His abilit to pull and get into space is a huge upgrade to what Zach Fulton can offer. Asiata has played a bit of tackle and both guard spots in his four years with the Utes, giving him some flexibility as a rotational lineman at the onset. If Asiata can clean up his tendency to lean into blocks after engaging, he'll be a quality player on the interior. Asiata won the PAC-12's Morris Trophy as the top offensive lineman in the conference as voted by his peers on the defensive line.

7. Josh Augusta, DT, Missouri (6'4" 346)

The Chiefs may have a major issue if Poe leaves in free agency, but if he's retained the NT position becomes less of a concern. This is where a player like Augusta could be developed for the future. Augusta was beginning to look more like a baby mammoth than a football player, but finally seemed to get his weight under control in 2016, and his stat line benefited tremendously. The fact remains, his weight issues are going to scare teams off and push him down in the draft despite his solid play in 2016. If Augusta can maintain a sub-350 pound weight and continue to develop, he could be a force on the interior that commands double-teams.

Change Lists (Last update 12/26/16)

Spoiler!

Changes 1: Billy Price (OG), Mitch Leidner (QB), Zach Pascal (WR) out. Nathan Peterman (QB), Marlon Mack (RB), DeAngelo Yancey (WR) in.
Movement: Magnuson from round 5 to round 4. Awuzie from round 4 to round 3. Hester from round 7 to round 6. Dimick from round 4 to round 2. Nacua from round 3 to round 7.

Changes 2: Zach Cunningham (ILB), Marlon Mack (RB), Nathan Peterman (QB) out. Mason Rudolph (QB), Marquel Lee (ILB), De'Veon Smith (RB) in.

Changes 3: Vincent Taylor (DT), Kai Nacua (FS) out. Jeremy Sprinkle (TE), Josh Augusta (NT) in.

Changes 4: Mason Rudolph (QB), Marquel Lee (ILB), DeAngelo Yancey (WR) out. Raekwon McMillan (ILB), Nathan Peterman (QB), Isaac Asiata (OG) in.

ROSTER

QB: A. Smith, T. Bray, N. Peterman
RB: S. Ware, C. West, D. Smith
FB: A. Sherman
WR: J. Maclin, C. Conley, T. Hill, D. Robinson, D. Thomas
TE: T. Kelce, R. Travis, J. Sprinkle, J. O'Shaughnessy
OL: E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, E. Magnuson
OG: L. Duvernay-Tardiff, P. Ehinger, I. Asiata
OC: M. Morse, Z. Fulton
DE: C. Jones, J. Howard, A. Bailey, R. Nunez-Roches, T. Hester
NT: D. Poe, J. Augusta
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, H. Dimick, D. Nicholas, F. Zombo
ILB: R. McMillan, J. Mauga, R. Wilson, D. Alexander, T. Smith, D. Johnson
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White, C. Awuzie, K. Acker
FS: R. Parker, E. Murray
SS: E. Berry, D. Sorensen
ST: C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

[RunKC]

Never draft a Big 12 QB. They haven't worked out in years

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Anyone have opinions on Rudolph, Lee, Yancey, and Augusta most specifically?

Made an update and forgot to talk about it.

I realllly like Marquel Lee for this defense though.

Augusta is just a big ol body that's hard to move. Could be a quality gap clogger, which would be a fine choice at the end of the draft.

I think Rudolph has potential.

[kccrow]

Despite rolling in their bowl game, apparently Mason Rudolph and James Washington announced that they are going to return for their Senior year's at Oklahoma State. So, that means he probably shreds the Big 12 next year and ends up a top-10 pick... and I cry. Working on a new mock...

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Despite rolling in their bowl game, apparently Mason Rudolph and James Washington announced that they are going to return for their Senior year's at Oklahoma State. So, that means he probably shreds the Big 12 next year and ends up a top-10 pick... and I cry. Working on a new mock...

Damn those kids for pursuing their education!!@!

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Despite rolling in their bowl game, apparently Mason Rudolph and James Washington announced that they are going to return for their Senior year's at Oklahoma State. So, that means he probably shreds the Big 12 next year and ends up a top-10 pick... and I cry. Working on a new mock...

Rudolph was going to need some strong workouts to power himself into the first, so I can't blame him too much.

No ****ing idea what Washington was thinking though. At worst, he was a Day 2 selection.

[kccrow]

Now that I'm done crying about two kids "pursuing their educations" in some meaningless degree like communications, I'm going to scream for another and hope like hell he declares.

With that, mock is updated.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

I like the way you worked your off season plan. Though some are likely to throw shit-fits about move #2, we've reached a point where it is what it is.

[BryanBusby]

That's a pretty rough mock.

I can't see McMillian going in the first round. Reminds me too much of Ramik Wilson, so I'm really not a fan of him in this Defense at all.

Hunter Dimick is rather early at that slot.

Can't see Dorsey going CB again unless they don't think Mitchell will stick. Need to let the young players actually develop.

Don't see the point pissing another Day 3 pick on riftraft QB.

Rest of the picks are fine

On the QB front, I can't help but think that the Chiefs will eagerly turn in a card with Deshaun Watsons name on it if he makes it to their pick. I think he fits the Offense extremely well, while not being nearly as limited as Alex is and isn't a mental midget.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

That's a pretty rough mock.

I can't see McMillian going in the first round. Reminds me too much of Ramik Wilson, so I'm really not a fan of him in this Defense at all.

Hunter Dimick is rather early at that slot.

Can't see Dorsey going CB again unless they don't think Mitchell will stick. Need to let the young players actually develop.

Don't see the point pissing another Day 3 pick on riftraft QB.

Rest of the picks are fine

On the QB front, I can't help but think that the Chiefs will eagerly turn in a card with Deshaun Watsons name on it if he makes it to their pick. I think he fits the Offense extremely well, while not being nearly as limited as Alex is and isn't a mental midget.

I wholeheartedly disagree with the bolded comment, but if that's what your opinion is, so it is. I don't see the attack mentality in Wilson. I don't see the lower-the-boom when you can mentality in Wilson. I don't see the range McMillan has with Wilson. I don't see the leadership. Announcers have been comparing him to Derrick Johnson at Texas and did so again tonight. I tend to think of him more in that light too, much more so than Ramik Wilson. I always thought Wilson was soft at Georgia and I never liked the pick. McMillan is anything but soft. Kid played one ****ing hell of a game tonight with heart when OSU was getting their shit pounded in elsewhere. I respect the kid. Never saw that kind of heart with Wilson. Probably never will.

Dimick is being highly underrated by CBS Sports and other draft sites at this point. You don't lead his conference in sacks, and post respectable numbers for 3 year without the NFL taking significant notice. He's a better prospect than the kid from Boise that went round 2 last year, Correa, or Kikaha that went in round 2 in 2015. He's going to ascend way up the "boards' prior to the draft just like those 2, especially if he has any sort of decent workout.

After that though, respectable points. I think Watson is in play despite my thoughts on him. He's that mobile type that Reid has primarily employed.

While I agree about not spending another mid-round pick on a QB, if the Chiefs do not strike early then it is likely they go to that pot once again. They can't possibly retain Foles and Smith at their current price tags and the only other QB on the team right now is Joel Stave from Wisconsin. Not good. They'll need another guy that at least has potential.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Dagnabit

I like the way you worked your off season plan. Though some are likely to throw shit-fits about move #2, we've reached a point where it is what it is.

I think its a decision the team has to make at this point in time. The team is more important than hanging on to nostalgia. Jamaal is past his prime. Poe and Berry are in there primes and are significant pieces to the defense. Poe is everything a 3-4 NT needs to be and Berry is the leader of the team. I just can't justify KC letting either walk at this point. We've seen KC succeed with Jamaal for a few seasons now. Don't get me wrong, I'm as much a fan of his as anyone, but it all boils down to a business decision. If the Chief can fit Poe and Berry in and cut Jamaal down to about 2 mil for the 2017 season, I could live with that.

[BryanBusby]

We'll have to agree to disagree on Dimick and McMillian.

I like Dimick, but I just think you're taking him a good full round too early. He's probably going to time poorly in Indy which will sink his momentum. Being productive is good, and he had a good season yes, but I don't think he faced that great of competition considering he played in a power conference.

McMillian is a 2 down backer that doesn't have the best closing speed or the best ability to fight blockers. I think he's like Ramik in the sense that Ramik is like Donnie Edwards. Racked up a lot of tackles after a guy had already racked up a fair amount of positive yardage. Sure he can hit hard, but that also leads him to being over aggressive and completely out of position, which will lead to big plays being given up that shouldn't happen.

I think your OSU glasses are giving him a more favorable look.

I would be okay if it was stacked more like

1. Watson
2. McMillian
3. Dimick

Although I think the Chiefs would probably have more interest in someone like Damore'ea Stringefellow in the 2nd (a lot like Treadwell, who the Chiefs tried to move up for) and would save ILB for early Day 3.

[O.city]

I wouldn't be upset trading up for the ilb from Alabama if he gets into the low 20s.

Unless Watson is still around. Love that guy

[kccrow]

Given that Watson is a smaller, slower, less accurate version of Marcus Mariota, perhaps he'd be passable in the NFL. I'm sure not thrilled with his NFL projection though.

[BryanBusby]

That's a real not good way to describe Watson.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

That's a real not good way to describe Watson.

How 'bout a smarter Vince Young?

We saw the good and the bad with Watson last week, IMO. He was still incredibly erratic early in that game. The accuracy just comes and goes and when it's gone, he's a massive liability.

That worries me quite a bit. There are a lot of rough edges on Watson and no middle ground with him. If he fixes his feet/mechanics, he can be a good one (provided he stays healthy AND adapts to the pro game), if he doesn't fix his feet, he's not even a viable backup. That's a shitload of risk. I'd probably take him in the late 1st still, but he's not a guy I'd trade up for.

Watching that same game, I'm a little intrigued by Malik Hooker. I just don't know that I'd be willing to use a 1st on him and I think that's what it would take (I don't think he'll leave early without a 1st round grade). That kid's a ballplayer, though. Perhaps not as physical as I'd like but as a pure FS, he'd be a baller. I just don't know if he works alongside Parker; too much finesse back there.