Houston Heading Toward Big Season.

[Micjones]

If you are looking for one NFL player that is capable of a breakout season in 2012 then look no farther than Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston.

The Chiefs drafted Houston in the third round out of Georgia and getting him there was a steal. Houston was projecting as a mid-first round pick before he tested positive for marijuana use at the NFL scouting combine. Teams backed away from a player stupid enough to smoke weed so close to such an important event but the Chiefs felt that Houston’s value was too great to pass on in round three. They also felt that, after talking with Houston, that there wouldn’t be any future trouble.

So far, KC’s investment is paying off big time.

Houston got off to a slow start last season (what Chiefs player didn’t) but by the end of the year he had forced his way into the starting lineup and soon he became an every-down player. In fact, Houston’s numbers and grades from Pro Football Focus indicated that he could be a monster in 2012. First, take a look at Houston’s overall grades from 2012.

Houston’s first four weeks were crap. After that he didn’t play as much and when he did he was average. Then, from Week 10 on, save a slip-up against the eventual AFC Champion Patriots, Houston was a beast. He finished the season with an overall grade of +6.8.

Yet there was a clear moment when Houston “got it” and it appeared to come around Week 10. We were tracking Houston’s progress here on AA and we had already noticed he had gone from bad to average and correctly predicted that he was about to turn the corner.*

*This is just one of the many reasons you should subscribe to premium stats at Pro Football Focus.

So what kind of season might Houston have in 2012? Chances are he could be even better than he was from Week 10 on of last season. But what if he was just equally as good? What would his numbers look like?

In 2011,Houston finished the year with six sacks, three QB hits, 13 QB hurries, three batted passes, 45 tackles and 32 stops.*

*The official NFL numbers credit Houston for a few more tackles. They also credit him with -.5 a sack. We’re using PFF numbers here because we believe them to be more accurate. PFF doesn’t give out 1/2 sacks. If two players get there at the same time, they both get credit for a sack.

His grades from PFF were as follows:

Overall: +6.8, Run D: +7.4, Pass Coverage: -7.6

If we take his numbers from Week 10 on, average them out and project them for an entire season, they look like this.

12 sacks

4 QB Hits

22 QB Hurries

58 Tackles

50 Stops

+33.4 Overall Grade

How does that +33.4 overall grade stack up against all 3-4 OLB from 2011?

It would be good for #3 in the entire NFL behind only Cameron Wake (+43.5) and Aldon Smith (+36.4) and ahead of players like Demarcus Ware (+32.6) and even Tamba Hali (+31.4).

The 50 stops?

Yeah, that’d be the best in the NFL.

The stops are really important because those are plays basically blown up by Houston. Add to that 12 sacks and you’ve got yourself an absolute force at OLB opposite Tamba Hali.

2012 will be Houston’s second season in Romeo Crennel’s defense. He’ll likely benefit from a full offseason of work and a more structured preseason plan from Romeo Crennel rather than Todd Haley’s “we’ll take it slow approach.” Houston should be ready right out of the gate this season and if he can string together 17 weeks of play comparable to his last eight weeks of football in 2011, the Kansas City Chiefs defense is going to be very, very good.

And Justin Houston could be heading to the Pro Bowl.

The Story.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by Dave

How? He didnt have a FF in either game. He had 2.5 sacks in both games, combined.

In the Charger game he had a HUGE tackle for loss on 3rd down near the end of the game that forced a 50+ yard FG attempt which the Chargers missed.

Against the Jets, 3rd and 10 with 30 some seconds to go and this happens....

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Dave

How? He didnt have a FF in either game. He had 2.5 sacks in both games, combined.

Nate Kaeding missed his last second field goal by the slimmest of margins after Von made a great tackle for a significant loss on 3rd down on (gasp!) a running play.

On the Jets' last chance drive, Von singlehandedly destroyed the T who outweighed him by approximately one metric ton, and sacked Sanchez. This was also on 3rd down.

We would have certainly lost the Chargers game sans Von. I suppose the Jets game may have been slightly more open to interpretation.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by Cassel>Manning

In the Charger game he had a HUGE tackle for loss on 3rd down near the end of the game that forced a 50+ yard FG attempt which the Chargers missed.

Against the Jets, 3rd and 10 with 30 some seconds to go and this happens....

Weak sauce.

The Jets had the ball at their own 25.

Stop trolling.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Nate Kaeding missed his last second field goal by the slimmest of margins after Von made a great tackle for a significant loss on 3rd down on (gasp!) a running play.

On the Jets' last chance drive, Von singlehandedly destroyed the T who outweighed him by approximately one metric ton, and sacked Sanchez. This was also on 3rd down.

WELL CROWN HIS ASS

[InChiefsHeaven]

Von Miller does not suck. But Houston does not either, and showed at the tail end of an abortion of a season for KC that he was coming on and looks to be a force. What's so wrong with just admitting that? Pick 2 is better than pick 70, but not by a huge margin...and we'll see what this season brings.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHell

Von Miller does not suck. But Houston does not either, and showed at the tail end of an abortion of a season for KC that he was coming on and looks to be a force. What's so wrong with just admitting that? Pick 2 is better than pick 70, but not by a huge margin...and we'll see what this season brings.

Yep. Congrats to the Broncos. Your best player is slightly better than our third round draft pick from last year.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Dave

Search. I don't care.

Miller, the 2nd overall pick, is a little better than Houston, the 70th overall pick.

Suck it.

Again, this is only true if you compare Von's absolute worst to Houston's absolute best. If you do any sort of fair comparison, there is simply no contest.

It would be like me claiming that Berry, the 5th overall pick, is a little better than Carter, the 108th pick. But not by much.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Two-Twenty

Hope that's true sir but your reputation precedes you.

and what reputation is that sir?

[milkman]

Originally Posted by sportsshrink

and what reputation is that sir?

You're an idiot.

A well earned reputation.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Yup...

See below

Hey Dave ! Tell the truth in context here about my Cassel comment that you have as your signature. And you know the truth about my comment which was made his 1st yr with the Chiefs in pre-season, when most although not excited, were still willing to give Cassel a chance at that point in time. I jumped off the Cassel bandwagon for good after the Balt playoff loss and actually started getting off the bandwagon during his so-called 2010 pro bowl yr.

But I don't expect you to give an accurate context OF ANYTHING Dave, because you are a Progressive/Marxist Lib

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by milkman

You're an idiot.

A well earned reputation.

Delivering 'sour milk' as usual

Dude ! Change your tampon, will ya??? It really makes you more self-righteously judgmental than usual

[milkman]

Originally Posted by sportsshrink

Delivering 'sour milk' as usual

Dude ! Change your tampon, will ya??? It really makes you more self-righteously judgmental than usual

You asked.
I answered.

The fact that you even had to ask, though, is proof of your idiocy.

And that idiocy is further illustrated by your recent post in the Hudson thread.

[BossChief]

Here's the kicker about this whole debate.

We essentially got Houston FOR FREE due to the trade down and us targeting Baldwin all along.

I was/am a big fan of Millers. He is gonna be a great player that few teams have an answer for.

That said, if I could chose between Von Miller OR Houston AND Baldwin...it's not even close.

I'm taking Baldwin and Houston.

That's not even taking into account the difference in "draft currency" used to attain the players with the difference between the 2nd overall pick and the 21st overall pick.

I think once they both develop, Von is gonna be a truly elite pass rusher but will be barely average against the run while Houston will be an elite run defender and a very good pass rusher that probably consistently tops double digit sacks.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Here's the kicker about this whole debate.

We essentially got Houston FOR FREE due to the trade down and us targeting Baldwin all along.

I was/am a big fan of Millers. He is gonna be a great player that few teams have an answer for.

That said, if I could chose between Von Miller OR Houston AND Baldwin...it's not even close.

I'm taking Baldwin and Houston.

That's not even taking into account the difference in "draft currency" used to attain the players with the difference between the 2nd overall pick and the 21st overall pick.

I think once they both develop, Von is gonna be a truly elite pass rusher but will be barely average against the run while Houston will be an elite run defender and a very good pass rusher that probably consistently tops double digit sacks.

Von Miller is an excellent run defender when he doesn't have his mind set on pass rushing. Really the only time he got killed against the run was on runs out of the shotgun. He would fly off the edge and the running back would run inside of the RT.

Von will be better than Houston at everything for the entirety of their careers.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

FYP

Clueless or just a dumbass?