Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 13

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

Stargazer · 08-06-2015, 10:42 AM

The Chiefs drafting a qb in the first round is a huge pie in the sky theory that will likely never occur in my lifetime.

**Rausch** · 08-06-2015, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

Duh

Pick 1.1 gets ample opportunity. 2nd rd picks need to produce quickly or else.

Here's the dumb $#it I don't get: the new CBA makes a 1st round QB LESS costly but owners/FO's/Coaches are less patient with them.

There is no longer such a thing as "developing" a QB. You get thrown in and win or get pushed out.

This makes no sense to me. You pay less to the position now and can afford to hold them back but choose not to and risk wasting a very rare commodity...

ViperVisor · 08-06-2015, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Brady? (I know, an unfair comparison.)

Wilson? His WR's were average at best and he managed two insane (the Green Bay game is one for the ages) come-back's in back to back seasons.

Eli? When he's on he's on without the top shelf talent he has now.

Ruthlessrapist? He keeps dropping MOAB-passes to speedsters who can't catch or run routes worth a **** while making them millionaires in the FA market.

His talent level is far above his play. He holds himself back.

Giving him a $3it O line and only one legitimate WR for 3 years isn't going to make him a more aggressive QB...

Since Rob Gronkowski entered the league, Brady has a 4:1 TD: INT ratio and 7.97 YPA with Gronk in the lineup. However, when Gronk is inactive, Brady has a TD: INT ratio of 2.07 and averages 6.83 YPA. He's simply an average QB without his best weapon.

Eli's 18 TD 27 INT 2013 didn't happen?

Rapist career is 1.6 TD passes a game. Because him and the pass game wasn't the center focus of the team. It was solid TE Heath Miller and role WRs before they found All-Pro Antonio Brown.

Alex Smith last 22 games also is at 1.6 TD passes a game?

BlackOp · 08-06-2015, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

I'm concerned that we have a losing record since the fraudulent fantasy of 9-0 ended.

Maybe inheriting a 2-14 teams...and molding it to your scheme is lost on you. Last season was about clearing the cap and jettisoning players...one step back type of deal. The first season was about "seeing what they have".

The terrible O-line was a byproduct of cleaning up Pioli's mess. Dorsey has done a fantastic job...and KC is in good shape now. It takes a few seasons....they have gotten rid of almost all of the dead weight and mediocre talent. Every player they let go hasn't lived up to their new contracts..

They didn't draft Bridgewater because they just drafted Murray and picked up Bray....they ARE developing a QB.

Discuss Thrower · 08-06-2015, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Maybe inheriting a 2-14 teams...

Because the Chiefs weren't two blocked FGs from back to back playoff appearances before that season.

Seriously. It's like you clowns don't take any effort to hide the fact you knew nothing about KC outside of red uniforms and BBQ before Smith got traded from San Francisco.

BlackOp · 08-06-2015, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Because the Chiefs weren't two blocked FGs from back to back playoff appearances before that season.

Seriously. It's like you clowns don't take any effort to hide the fact you knew nothing about KC outside of red uniforms and BBQ before Smith got traded from San Francisco.

You're not even smart enough to be a decent troll....

O.city · 08-06-2015, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Because the Chiefs weren't two blocked FGs from back to back playoff appearances before that season.

Seriously. It's like you clowns don't take any effort to hide the fact you knew nothing about KC outside of red uniforms and BBQ before Smith got traded from San Francisco.

Yeah, sure.

But the rhetoric then was "who'd they beat, they're shitty beating more shitty teams". That 7 and 9 team was blown out by every good team they played, save for the packers.

Stargazer · 08-06-2015, 11:37 AM

Great analogy by T.J. Carpenter yesterday as he referred to Alex Smith as a hall monitor and lifeguard of the offense.

KCSLC2008 · 08-06-2015, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCTitus

Ok, I'll bite.

I dont have any animus against Smith. I cannot abide by the 2 yard pass on 3rd and 10. It's all too frequent and has become such a pattern that defenses have no respect for any sort of stretch play. It hurts both the running game and a shaky line if the defense doesnt have to worry about anything beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Is that Alex/Offensive play calling or both? Dont know, dont care.

I'd like to see less predicability especially on 3rd down. That's all.

I lived through the Donnell Bennett years. No more, thanks.

It would more like being an 8 yard pass on third and 10. Not a 2 yard pass. You probably got that, but I wanted to make sure you didn't think the 2.3 was the depth of the pass. I don't care how far it is, as long as the conversion rate is good - it's an efficiency and field position trade off. Good chance of converting, as an incomplete pass gives you nothing, and if you are short, it still pushes the other team back.

A sack is often due to bad offensive line play during an obvious pass play where you are actually trying to pass for the first down as opposed to running it to get the first down. It's no wonder why his sack level is high. Of the players who threw for over 200 attempts, he's played a lot, so his sack level would also be higher than someone who barely got over 200 attempts.

Obviously, some or a lot of it is his fault, but when you're talking about the most or a ranking, there are other circumstances that affect it.

Hydrae · 08-06-2015, 12:23 PM

Here's to RGIII being a Chief next year.

**Rausch** · 08-06-2015, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

Here's to RGIII being a Chief next year.

You should be beaten to death with a football...

KCSLC2008 · 08-06-2015, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

Here's to RGIII being a Chief next year.

No, Kaepernick, SF is our farm team... Or to them, we are their recycle bin.

**Rausch** · 08-06-2015, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCSLC2008

No, Kaepernick, SF is our farm team... Or to them, we are their recycle bin.

Somewhere in there you had a point and it was a good one...

Discuss Thrower · 08-06-2015, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Yeah, sure.

But the rhetoric then was "who'd they beat, they're shitty beating more shitty teams". That 7 and 9 team was blown out by every good team they played, save for the packers.

The 2013 Chiefs didn't beat anyone good either maybe save the Eagles.. Who even then had Vick at QB.

O.city · 08-06-2015, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The 2013 Chiefs didn't beat anyone good either maybe save the Eagles.. Who even then had Vick at QB.

Cowboys were and are a pretty good team, but for the most part, they beat inferior teams.

Last year, they beat good teams, but also lost to bad teams on 2 occasions.

Normally, that's the general progression of teams getting to the upper echelon, or atleast you'd hope

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1451379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,921

08-06-2015, 10:42 AM	#181
Stargazer Starter Join Date: Sep 2014 Casino cash: $10002830	The Chiefs drafting a qb in the first round is a huge pie in the sky theory that will likely never occur in my lifetime.
Posts: 333

08-06-2015, 11:37 AM	#188
Stargazer Starter Join Date: Sep 2014 Casino cash: $10002830	Great analogy by T.J. Carpenter yesterday as he referred to Alex Smith as a hall monitor and lifeguard of the offense.
Posts: 333

08-06-2015, 12:23 PM	#190
Hydrae Sandbox: Leander Lasercats Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Austin, Tx Casino cash: $2157000	Here's to RGIII being a Chief next year.
Posts: 14,691