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Old 11-25-2013, 09:18 AM  
Nzoner Nzoner is offline
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Broncos open as 2.5 favorites and now
-3 with an over/under of 47.5

UPDATED Wed Nov 27th 12:30 p.m. KC now -5.5 dog now

Sunday morning Broncos -6.5
Last edited by Nzoner; 12-01-2013 at 09:52 AM..
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Old 11-27-2013, 03:32 PM   #76
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Using online betting you can do something similar. For example, if you take an under at 50.5 for $100, at half time the score is 10-7, and the second half o/u is 20.5 and you take the over for $100, that is a range of 48-50 where you win both bets.

Also, you cannot lose since one of your bets is guaranteed to hit. I have done quite well with that in the past. It works even better on basketball since those ranges (specifically the one where you win both bets) tend to be larger.
Thanks for the tip! Question, where do u go online? I go to bovada, its ok I guess. I do like their live betting... when it works. Would like to check out other reputable places though, but I'm scared to try a place that hasn't been recommended.
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Old 11-27-2013, 04:31 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
Using online betting you can do something similar. For example, if you take an under at 50.5 for $100, at half time the score is 10-7, and the second half o/u is 20.5 and you take the over for $100, that is a range of 48-50 where you win both bets.

Also, you cannot lose since one of your bets is guaranteed to hit. I have done quite well with that in the past. It works even better on basketball since those ranges (specifically the one where you win both bets) tend to be larger.
Maybe I'm being obtuse, but why would you bet the over when the score is 10-7?
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Old 11-27-2013, 04:40 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Jakemall View Post
Maybe I'm being obtuse, but why would you bet the over when the score is 10-7?
Over 20.5 for the second half only.

But, I think his range to win both bets (under for entire game and over for second half) would be 38 - 50.
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Old 11-27-2013, 04:40 PM   #79
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Maybe I'm being obtuse, but why would you bet the over when the score is 10-7?
Because in his example, the o/u for the 2nd half 20.5. If the score goes over 20.5, he wins the over and long as the score doesn't go over the inital 50.5 he wins both bets. If the score stays under 20.5 he still wins the first bet.
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Old 11-27-2013, 04:44 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Coogs View Post
Over 20.5 for the second half only.

But, I think his range to win both bets (under for entire game and over for second half) would be 38 - 50.
Oh yes my bad. You are indeed correct. It didn't sound right but I couldn't figure out why.
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Old 12-01-2013, 09:53 AM   #81
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6.5 dogs now
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:04 AM   #82
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Chiefs will win, home field advantage counts for a lot.
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:09 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Start Croyle View Post
Chiefs will win, home field advantage counts for a lot.
/signed, a far less superior Chargers team.
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:16 AM   #84
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/signed, a far less superior Chargers team.
This game is on our DC.

The Pats sure as hell didn't have the talent to shut down 5head.

But they did.

Most figured the Pats struggling offense wouldn't be able to keep pace.

Then they did.

We can't show up today doing the same thing in the the same way and just hope we want it more. We need to be creative.

**** this 1 deep man bull$3it and just double D. Thomas and remove him. Take him right the **** out of the game. Force 5head to lob wobbles short to Welker where Berry and the LB's can drill him and make him pay.

Force him to rely on a TE that can't block...
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:18 AM   #85
Molitoth Molitoth is offline
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This game is on our DC.

The Pats sure as hell didn't have the talent to shut down 5head.

But they did.

Most figured the Pats struggling offense wouldn't be able to keep pace.

Then they did.

We can't show up today doing the same thing in the the same way and just hope we want it more. We need to be creative.

**** this 1 deep man bull$3it and just double D. Thomas and remove him. Take him right the **** out of the game. Force 5head to lob wobbles short to Welker where Berry and the LB's can drill him and make him pay.

Force him to rely on a TE that can't block...
Yup, this game will shows us even more how willing our coaches are to adjusting to the competition.
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:25 AM   #86
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Broncos have a lot of injuries, Wolfe won't be playing today...
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:30 AM   #87
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Broncos have a lot of injuries, Wolfe won't be playing today...
Really? When you have Peyton Manning, I really doubt this matters...
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:36 AM   #88
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So that's pretty much the home-field advantage right? At Denver it was about -6, and if home-field is worth about 3...
Homefield in the NFL has been worth +4.5 this year according to the sharps that play Vegas heavy.

+3 you're right is the generally held number for playing at home, but like anything else, some one good with numbers and way more understanding and free time has devised a formula for a truer estimated margin value based upon this year's play.
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:36 AM   #89
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6.5 dogs now
4 points. That has to be approaching an NFL record in absence of a major injury.
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Old 12-01-2013, 10:44 AM   #90
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House money makes it hurt less, for sure. If you'd have asked me 2 weeks ago, I'd have taken Denver. After gaining some confidence in our offense, seeing Denver completely collapse Sunday, and now knowing that their best run stuffer is out for 6 weeks...I'm taking the Chiefs.

We're at home, it will be dark/getting cold by halftime, crowd noise is going to be INSANE, Hali should be able to go, we've got fresh tape and will hopefully follow the Pats game plan a bit. If Jamaal has a big game, we win. Period.

I think it will be close, but I think we get it done.
Not to mention Andy and Bill have talked again, just like they did after KC played Denver to compare information and any insight into what was working and what wasn't as well as all the juicy inside little tells and whatnot.
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