The Perpetual Second Round Pick

[Amnorix]

So here is a not uncommon thought written by a local sportswriter here, but it could reflect 90% of Patriots Nation, I'm sure:

Originally Posted by frustrated Pats writer

Cutting past a little overreaction, here’s the issue: If Belichick is going to maneuver to acquire an additional first-round pick, why doesn’t he ever use both?

Why don't people understand that if you take a late first and trade it for a second this year and another first next year, then you have GAINED a pick. You had one pick before, and now you have two.

And if you do that EVERY SINGLE YEAR WITHOUT FAIL, then for absolutely no additional investment, you have an extra second round pick IN PERPETUITY, FOREVAH AND EVAH AND EVAH.

These morons act like we're trading a 1st this year for a 1st next year, and keep rolling the ball forward and never using the pick, ignoring that we GET a second round pick that we DO use, or trade for value, or whatever.

Anyway, not that you guys care, but it's an excellent strategy, but nobody gets it. Why?

[-King-]

So does that equal to 2 or 288?

[Molitoth]

Bill is the best. The Patriots are the team to model; proven.

[Brock]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Bill is the best. The Patriots are the team to model; proven.

Everybody should fall ass backwards into one of the greatest QBs ever.

[JD10367]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

It's not like he's expanding his "house money" though; in the example, the 1st next year is essentially equivalent to the 2nd this year and 1st next year. The pie stays the same size in terms of overall value.

How so?

Think of it in terms of one draft. If someone said to you, "I'll take your #28 first-rounder and in exchange I'll give you MY first-rounder--which could be anywhere--and, in addition, a second-rounder".

The ABSOLUTE WORST that 1st will be is 32. Meaning, to drop four spots in the 1st, the Pats picked up a 2nd. But there's a very good chance it will be higher than a 28... in which case, when compared to this season, the Pats improved their spot and got a free second.

Can you consider each draft equally? No. Next year's will obviously have different players and be different depth-wise. But apparently Belichick decided that whoever he could take with 28 he could take with 33. So why not get next year's? If the Saints shit the bed, that could be a top-10 pick.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by JD10367

How so?

Think of it in terms of one draft. If someone said to you, "I'll take your #28 first-rounder and in exchange I'll give you MY first-rounder--which could be anywhere--and, in addition, a second-rounder".

The ABSOLUTE WORST that 1st will be is 32. Meaning, to drop four spots in the 1st, the Pats picked up a 2nd. But there's a very good chance it will be higher than a 28... in which case, when compared to this season, the Pats improved their spot and got a free second.

You can't ignore the value of delaying a pick for another year though. In a vacuum, the #28 pick this year is worth more than the #28 pick next year. It varies by personal opinion and situation how much the next year's pick has to improve to be equal to this year's pick though.