Michael Ash's Undeniable Draft Facts

[Hammock Parties]

CURRY BAD!

http://kan.scout.com/2/855237.html

With the NFL draft just two weeks away, we’re in a confusing, speculation-filled period. These five undeniable draft facts should keep you level-headed as we forge ahead into the great unknown.

1) This is not a good year to be drafting high.

A point many have been arguing this offseason was recently driven home by the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock, who told Sports Illustrated, “This is by far the worst year for the top 10 that I've seen.” He explained that teams will be able to draft players around pick #20 that are equal to the players in the top 10, and they won’t come at a high price.

It’s the words “by far” that really stand out. Mayock isn’t merely saying 2009 is a bad draft class for top-echelon players, he’s saying it’s “by far” the worst he’s seen. That has to make you stop and think.

As it relates to Kansas City, that statement seems to suggest two things - the best move the Chiefs could make is trading down, but few teams will be looking to move up. That’s not a good combination.


2) Aaron Curry is not Jack Bauer.

If you’ve spent the last few months tracking what Chiefs fans think about the Wake Forest linebacker, you’ve undoubtedly seen statements like:

- Curry is a once-in-a-lifetime prospect.

- Curry has to be a Chief or the team will regret it forever.

- Curry is the next Derrick Thomas.

And so on and so forth. The Curry legend has almost grown to Bauer or Chuck Norris-like proportions. Any day now I expect talk radio callers to start telling tales of how Curry sleeps with a nightlight. Not because he’s afraid of the dark, but because the dark is afraid of him.

Incidentally, the final item on that list is my favorite. Back around January, the Curry-Thomas comparisons were running wild, until people finally began pointing out how absurd it was to compare someone who only racked up only nine and a half sacks in four years of college to someone who once had seven sacks in a single game.

Rather than backing off the hyperbole, though, the comparison simply shifted and now it seems Curry is being anointed as the next Ray Lewis.

When people point out that linebackers aren’t selected near the top of the draft – especially those who don’t rush the quarterback – it only seems to embolden the Curry supporters. That Curry is being talked about as a top three pick in spite of that tradition is taken as proof of his dominance and used as further evidence that he should be the Chiefs’ selection.

In reality, Curry is one of the top draft prospects in a class that’s not particularly strong on top. That’s why his name has been bandied about as a potential top-three pick. Unlike other years, there aren’t enough top prospects to push him back into the 6-12 range where a comparable player would normally go. He’s not a once-in-a-lifetime marvel – he’s the beneficiary of having a weak class around him.

Does any of that mean Curry won’t be a good player in the NFL? Of course not. He may be elite. He’s widely considered among analysts as the draft’s safest pick because he’s talented, makes few mistakes, and seems unlikely to be a bust.

But being “safe” doesn’t make him a perennial Pro Bowler, either. Being “safe” means he could be in the mold of Derrick Johnson – a decent enough player who only comes up big in one or two games a season.

So, please, let’s stop all the Curry insanity. He’s a fine prospect. But if he was half the player some seem to think he is, with the weak state of the top 10, he’d be long gone by the time the Chiefs make their pick.


3) The Chiefs must draft the best players they possibly can.

This seems rather obvious, doesn’t it? But every year there are those who insist that filling a specific need is the more important goal on draft day. That may be true for a team that’s one piece away – a win-now team that could say, “You know, a really good receiver might put us over the top this year.”

But after compiling a grand total of six victories over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are hardly in that position.

This year, the “draft for need” crowd has focused on the Chiefs’ lack of a pass rush. With only 10 sacks last year, they say, the Chiefs’ primary focus should be on finding a pass-rusher, no matter which more-talented prospects they have to skip over in the process.

If the goal of the 2009 draft was to re-simulate the 2008 season and make the Chiefs a little more competitive along the way, drafting a pass rusher would be a good way to go. With a few more sacks, maybe the Chiefs could have won as many as four games. That was what they did when Jared Allen logged 15.5 sacks in 2007, after all.

Unfortunately for supporters of that method, that isn’t the goal of the draft. The purpose is to make the Chiefs better in 2009 and beyond, something teams accomplish by collecting as many good football players as they can.

There’s no arguing the Chiefs need help when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. But they also need help in other areas. Without a pass rusher worthy of selection at the #3 spot, they don’t have the luxury of ignoring better players and reaching on someone in an effort to patch holes from last year’s ship.

That style of drafting is the equivalent of sticking your finger in the leaky dam, only to watch another leak spring up a few inches from the old one. Then you plug the new leak to see yet another pop up. It’s an endless cycle and you never get ahead of the game.

Of course, there are surely proponents of taking a pass-rusher who don’t fall into this “drafting for need” category. Some may not see a big difference between, say, Aaron Curry and Florida State’s Everette Brown, so to them the Chiefs wouldn’t be passing up better players to fill a need. There’s nothing wrong with that.

This reminder is for those who were even advocating a pass rusher before the Matt Cassel trade, when the debate included the prospect of taking a quarterback. Yes, it’s true – some of the “draft for need” crowd was endorsing their position with the idea that Tyler Thigpen could hold down the fort for another year, because what the Chiefs really needed was more sacks.

If you’ve ever found yourself talking to someone who argues that filling some random need is more important to a team than finding a franchise quarterback, say “That’s nice, Carl,” and ask him how he’s enjoying retirement.

Tomorrow: We examine the draft value chart and the need for a particular player.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Most of those positions don't go in the top 5 anyway...no one should be taking a RB top 5.

Mike Mayock thinks Robert Ayers is gonna be the best defensive player from the draft, it's time to stop citing him he says dumb shit.

There are 4 top level players at franchise positions they're just LT's and QB's.

Ayers very well could be the best D player in this draft. Believe it.

[beach tribe]

Dude definitely read the planet.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by CatLuvinChief

You're hate of Sanchez is all anyone needs to know about how good he's gonna be.

[Hammock Parties]

I have to say Mecca, if you are wrong about Dirty Sanchez, you will never live it down. It could destroy your previously unsoiled reputation.

[Mecca]

LOL, it doesn't matter if I am or not at this point.

[CoMoChief]

Originally Posted by Mecca

You're hate of Sanchez is all anyone needs to know about how good he's gonna be.

I dont hate Sanchez, I just dont think he's top 10 worthy, never have, never will.

He plays the toughest position in the game, has only one season under his belt playing in college in a weaker Pac 10 this past season. The only reason why he's being considered this high is because of the position he plays and after Stafford and him, the talent level at QB drops A LOT. I still laugh at people who think Freeman is a first day pick.

Would I spend a top 10 pick on that? No, its stupid. This is a terrible year to draft in the top 5. There's not really an elite player in this draft. If there is it's at the tackle position.

[Mecca]

You don't think Stafford is elite either....one of those KC fans who hates QB's eh...

Anyone who would take an hour of out their day to watch Sanchez would immediately realize why he's highly thought of.

[CoMoChief]

Originally Posted by Mecca

You don't think Stafford is elite either....one of those KC fans who hates QB's eh...

Anyone who would take an hour of out their day to watch Sanchez would immediately realize why he's highly thought of.

I think Stafford would go in any top 10 draft recently. But as a top pick, probably not. This is a horrid year for QB's, probably won't get any better as time goes on by with more and more colleges switching to the spread. Either you will see more of it or versions of it in the NFL or it will eventually die out in college and there will be a lack of NFL QB talent up to that time.

Not to mention Pete Carroll has been said many times that Sanchez isn't ready for the NFL. I would take his coaches word over anyone's word here on Chiefsplanet, simply because he coaches the mother****er and knows more about the game than anyone thats ever posted here. And you can piss on your previous arguments about how he's just pissed because it's causing him a NC. I dont buy that argument one bit. I dont think a coach is going to put his own agenda before a players in that regard. If he's not ready he's not ready. And its not like USC won't be in competition for a National Title anyways. There in the hunt for one every frickin season. USC is a powerhouse, they dont rebuild they reload.

If Sanchez played another year, had a great year, lead his team to a NC, there would be no doubt he would be a top 3 pick next season, perhaps possibly #1 overall.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by Claythan

A fabulous writer.

A fabulous writer would never compile a complete embarrassment of a sentence such as this:

Originally Posted by Michael Ash

Back around January, the Curry-Thomas comparisons were running wild, until people finally began pointing out how absurd it was to compare someone who only racked up only nine and a half sacks in four years of college[missing ,??] to someone who once had seven sacks in a single game.

[Boris The Great]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

A fabulous writer would never compile a complete embarrassment of a sentence such as this:

Thats called poor editing.

[Hammock Parties]

That's actually my fault. I edited a mistake in.

[T-post Tom]

Great article!

More undeniable facts:
1) Elton John is gay.
2) Water is wet.
3) Most of us have a neck and can breathe.

This article sucks for many reasons. No offense Claythan. But a few examples:

1. This year's top ten is one of the worst ever because Mike Mayock says so? Really? Someone send Pioli the memo as I'm sure he'll want to realign his draft board based on Mayock's comments. Pioli should hire Mayock as his Asst. GM. Dammit Scott!

I guess this means there's no way Sanchez or Stafford EVER become fanchise qbs then. They couldn't carry Matt Ryan's jock strap. Ryan was good, but is it any coincidence that Atlanta tried to protect him with the 2nd highest number or rushing attempts in the NFL with 560? (Chiefs had 379 rushing attempts.) Hey Raji, you're Glen Dorsey's biatch. You'll never be as good as him. Jason Smith & Eugene Monroe: & STFD. You'll never be as talented as Jake Long. Curry & all you rushing LB's will never exceed Vernon Gholston's 13 tackles and 0 sacks in your first year. BANK IT! And you DE's will never match up to last year's #2 pick, Chris Long. He had 4 sacks, motherfuckers!

Dammit Scott, call Mayock NOW!

2. "Aaron Curry is not Jack Bauer." No shit? "But if he was half the player some seem to think he is, with the weak state of the top 10, he’d be long gone by the time the Chiefs make their pick." Hmmmm, really? Now I thought that DET & STL had absolutley no pressing needs outside of LB. And I also thought that DET & STL valued Curry far above every other prospect since he is exponentially more talented than the entire draft class combined. Yep, you pegged us Chiefs' fans alright. But not just some: all of us.

3. "The Chiefs must draft the best players they possibly can." Thank you for that holy nugget of wisdom. EVERY poster on this board has been saying that all we need is a replacement for JA & we'll be sporting rings. [\Sarcasm] In fact, every single Chiefs' fan that I know has been saying that. The "draft for need crowd" is in full effect. Say yeah. And kudos for the Carl P dig. No better way to ingratiate yourself with Chiefs' fans.

I love lamp.

[BigRock]

Originally Posted by T-post Tom

"Aaron Curry is not Jack Bauer." No shit?

Originally Posted by T-post Tom

3. "The Chiefs must draft the best players they possibly can." Thank you for that holy nugget of wisdom. EVERY poster on this board has been saying that all we need is a replacement for JA & we'll be sporting rings.

You know, I would imagine that things written at WPI are aimed primarly at WPI readers and the people who post on their boards.

But this may be a completely outlandish assumption on my part.

[Hammock Parties]

Those things have been said on THIS board.

[T-post Tom]

Originally Posted by BigRock

You know, I would imagine that things written at WPI are aimed primarly at WPI readers and the people who post on their boards.

But this may be a completely outlandish assumption on my part.

You are correct. But the perjorative references are regarding Chiefs' fans in general. And you might also assume that those WPI readers are most often Chiefs' fans.