Michael Ash's Undeniable Draft Facts

[Hammock Parties]

CURRY BAD!

http://kan.scout.com/2/855237.html

With the NFL draft just two weeks away, we’re in a confusing, speculation-filled period. These five undeniable draft facts should keep you level-headed as we forge ahead into the great unknown.

1) This is not a good year to be drafting high.

A point many have been arguing this offseason was recently driven home by the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock, who told Sports Illustrated, “This is by far the worst year for the top 10 that I've seen.” He explained that teams will be able to draft players around pick #20 that are equal to the players in the top 10, and they won’t come at a high price.

It’s the words “by far” that really stand out. Mayock isn’t merely saying 2009 is a bad draft class for top-echelon players, he’s saying it’s “by far” the worst he’s seen. That has to make you stop and think.

As it relates to Kansas City, that statement seems to suggest two things - the best move the Chiefs could make is trading down, but few teams will be looking to move up. That’s not a good combination.


2) Aaron Curry is not Jack Bauer.

If you’ve spent the last few months tracking what Chiefs fans think about the Wake Forest linebacker, you’ve undoubtedly seen statements like:

- Curry is a once-in-a-lifetime prospect.

- Curry has to be a Chief or the team will regret it forever.

- Curry is the next Derrick Thomas.

And so on and so forth. The Curry legend has almost grown to Bauer or Chuck Norris-like proportions. Any day now I expect talk radio callers to start telling tales of how Curry sleeps with a nightlight. Not because he’s afraid of the dark, but because the dark is afraid of him.

Incidentally, the final item on that list is my favorite. Back around January, the Curry-Thomas comparisons were running wild, until people finally began pointing out how absurd it was to compare someone who only racked up only nine and a half sacks in four years of college to someone who once had seven sacks in a single game.

Rather than backing off the hyperbole, though, the comparison simply shifted and now it seems Curry is being anointed as the next Ray Lewis.

When people point out that linebackers aren’t selected near the top of the draft – especially those who don’t rush the quarterback – it only seems to embolden the Curry supporters. That Curry is being talked about as a top three pick in spite of that tradition is taken as proof of his dominance and used as further evidence that he should be the Chiefs’ selection.

In reality, Curry is one of the top draft prospects in a class that’s not particularly strong on top. That’s why his name has been bandied about as a potential top-three pick. Unlike other years, there aren’t enough top prospects to push him back into the 6-12 range where a comparable player would normally go. He’s not a once-in-a-lifetime marvel – he’s the beneficiary of having a weak class around him.

Does any of that mean Curry won’t be a good player in the NFL? Of course not. He may be elite. He’s widely considered among analysts as the draft’s safest pick because he’s talented, makes few mistakes, and seems unlikely to be a bust.

But being “safe” doesn’t make him a perennial Pro Bowler, either. Being “safe” means he could be in the mold of Derrick Johnson – a decent enough player who only comes up big in one or two games a season.

So, please, let’s stop all the Curry insanity. He’s a fine prospect. But if he was half the player some seem to think he is, with the weak state of the top 10, he’d be long gone by the time the Chiefs make their pick.


3) The Chiefs must draft the best players they possibly can.

This seems rather obvious, doesn’t it? But every year there are those who insist that filling a specific need is the more important goal on draft day. That may be true for a team that’s one piece away – a win-now team that could say, “You know, a really good receiver might put us over the top this year.”

But after compiling a grand total of six victories over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are hardly in that position.

This year, the “draft for need” crowd has focused on the Chiefs’ lack of a pass rush. With only 10 sacks last year, they say, the Chiefs’ primary focus should be on finding a pass-rusher, no matter which more-talented prospects they have to skip over in the process.

If the goal of the 2009 draft was to re-simulate the 2008 season and make the Chiefs a little more competitive along the way, drafting a pass rusher would be a good way to go. With a few more sacks, maybe the Chiefs could have won as many as four games. That was what they did when Jared Allen logged 15.5 sacks in 2007, after all.

Unfortunately for supporters of that method, that isn’t the goal of the draft. The purpose is to make the Chiefs better in 2009 and beyond, something teams accomplish by collecting as many good football players as they can.

There’s no arguing the Chiefs need help when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. But they also need help in other areas. Without a pass rusher worthy of selection at the #3 spot, they don’t have the luxury of ignoring better players and reaching on someone in an effort to patch holes from last year’s ship.

That style of drafting is the equivalent of sticking your finger in the leaky dam, only to watch another leak spring up a few inches from the old one. Then you plug the new leak to see yet another pop up. It’s an endless cycle and you never get ahead of the game.

Of course, there are surely proponents of taking a pass-rusher who don’t fall into this “drafting for need” category. Some may not see a big difference between, say, Aaron Curry and Florida State’s Everette Brown, so to them the Chiefs wouldn’t be passing up better players to fill a need. There’s nothing wrong with that.

This reminder is for those who were even advocating a pass rusher before the Matt Cassel trade, when the debate included the prospect of taking a quarterback. Yes, it’s true – some of the “draft for need” crowd was endorsing their position with the idea that Tyler Thigpen could hold down the fort for another year, because what the Chiefs really needed was more sacks.

If you’ve ever found yourself talking to someone who argues that filling some random need is more important to a team than finding a franchise quarterback, say “That’s nice, Carl,” and ask him how he’s enjoying retirement.

Tomorrow: We examine the draft value chart and the need for a particular player.

[svuba]

Originally Posted by T-post Tom

....................
This article sucks for many reasons. No offense Claythan. But a few examples:

1. This year's top ten is one of the worst ever because Mike Mayock says so? Really? Someone send Pioli the memo as I'm sure he'll want to realign his draft board based on Mayock's comments. Pioli should hire Mayock as his Asst. GM. Dammit Scott!

I guess this means there's no way Sanchez or Stafford EVER become fanchise qbs then. They couldn't carry Matt Ryan's jock strap. Ryan was good, but is it any coincidence that Atlanta tried to protect him with the 2nd highest number or rushing attempts in the NFL with 560? (Chiefs had 379 rushing attempts.) Hey Raji, you're Glen Dorsey's biatch. You'll never be as good as him. Jason Smith & Eugene Monroe: & STFD. You'll never be as talented as Jake Long. Curry & all you rushing LB's will never exceed Vernon Gholston's 13 tackles and 0 sacks in your first year. BANK IT! And you DE's will never match up to last year's #2 pick, Chris Long. He had 4 sacks, motherfuckers!

Dammit Scott, call Mayock NOW!

Well Done. Its not that this draft is weak in terms of top talent, it just isn't obvious yet who those guys are.

Could be Sanchez could be Curry, it could be Billie joe from North Dakota Tech, That is why the draft is such a difficult thing to get right.

I mean Look at Ryan Leaf , Tony Mandarich and Todd Marinovich, Those guys were unquestionably top talent everybody knew it..except they were not.

Tom Brady, Joe Montana, and Johnny Unitas are 2nd day scum, not even in the top 100 players in their respective drafts...They were simply NOT top level talent when drafted.

The value of a High pick is the right to choose first, if you are a good talent evaluator, you make the right choice. The Idea that there is a shortage of top talent in this draft is ridiculous.

[KCDC]

I don't think last year's class was any better. Of the top 6, Jake Long was good, as was Matt Ryan. The rest were disappointments. Dorsey, like Curry, was ranked the number 1 stud in the draft -- a monster -- a can't miss. Well, he's not a bust, but he did not play anywhere near that level. I just hope it was poor coaching, but our DL coach is back.

[BigRock]

So if the top of this year's class isn't weak, why are there stories about the teams picking in that range desperately trying to trade down like rats jumping off a sinking ship?

[T-post Tom]

Originally Posted by BigRock

If the top of this year's class isn't weak, why are there stories about the teams picking in that range desperately trying to trade down like rats jumping off a sinking ship?

I've heard it both ways. Many are saying the Lions are sold on their pick. Now the Rams supposedly said they'd be willing to trade down. Arrowhead (Fort Knox North) is on lockdown, so who knows. I've heard mixed reports on Seattle and the Bengals. Supposedly the Raiders are staying put with their pick. So who knows? Typical draft speculation while those teams try to jockey for postion. We won't know the truth until after it's done.

[googlegoogle]

derrick johnson.

your thoughts.

[EyePod]

WR is a position that we need to improve on. Draft Crabtree. I don't care if he's slow or a product of the spread. He's amazing to watch and will continue to be for years.

[wild1]

Originally Posted by EyePod

WR is a position that we need to improve on. Draft Crabtree. I don't care if he's slow or a product of the spread. He's amazing to watch and will continue to be for years.

[bdeg]

Originally Posted by Claythan

That's actually my fault. I edited a mistake in.

Now that's an editor.

"Some may not see a big difference between, say, Aaron Curry and Florida State’s Everette Brown, so to them the Chiefs wouldn’t be passing up better players to fill a need. There’s nothing wrong with that. "
This reminds me of what I said on here
QB part doesn't really apply, I was assuming Stafford wouldn't fall and wasn't sold on Sanchez.

[Fire Me Boy!]

Originally Posted by Redrum_69

YAY...this must be an early easter!!

More WPI run-on sentences and endless two sentence paragraphs!!

This is why Christ died on the cross...for all of us to break bread and read WPI

Hey, not that I'm defending WPI. God knows I'm not one to run to their defense... but two sentence paragraphs are a staple of internet articles because research time and again indicates people don't read longer paragraphs. Shorter paragraphs makes the article more "readable" to the average internet viewer.

[SenselessChiefsFan]

"So, please, let’s stop all the Curry insanity. He’s a fine prospect. But if he was half the player some seem to think he is, with the weak state of the top 10, he’d be long gone by the time the Chiefs make their pick."

Well, 'long gone' is a little hard to believe since the Chiefs have only the third overall pick.

Second, the draft has three legit top five prospects at positions that would normally be selected top five. Stafford, Monroe and Smith. Given that the Lions need a franchise QB, and the Rams desperately need a LT, it says nothing about Curry if he is still there.

On top of that, the Rams and Lions have both at least met with Curry, and depending on the day of the week, have been 'high' on him at different points.

For a LB to be considered by these teams when there are top prospects at value positions, at positions they NEED...... says that the linebacker is viewed as a special prospect.

By the way, DJ had holes in his game when he came out. He was a coverage linebacker that over ran plays, didn't take on blockers and was only an 'okay' tackler.

Curry didn't get asked to rush the passer much. That is the only flaw than anyone can find in his game. He breaks runners down, he takes on blockers, he is a smart player that sees the field well.

I keep looking for the guy that makes more sense at this spot that fills a need... and I just don't see one. I wish I did. I DO think you can get LB's later in the draft. I do think you can get RT's later in the draft.

But, the two best prospects available will 'probably' be Curry and Monroe. At some point, we just have to realize that things aren't always ideal.

[LaChapelle]

Samuel Clemens is sooo jealous.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by SensibleChiefsfan

At some point, we just have to realize that things aren't always ideal.

Yep. Realize that things aren't ideal and take a QB instead of Curry.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Claythan

Those things have been said on THIS board.

Yep.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Claythan

Those things have been said on THIS board.

so are you saying this "great writer" copies his stories from chiefsplanet then makes people PAY to read them???

[King_Chief_Fan]

Originally Posted by EyePod

WR is a position that we need to improve on. Draft Crabtree. I don't care if he's slow or a product of the spread. He's amazing to watch and will continue to be for years.

wow, just wow