*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

What's so great about Cuthberts bat? 94 wRC+ was same as Dyson, whom everyone in here rants about being overrated and "exposed" the longer he's in the lineup. Obv Cuthbert is young and his aging curve suggests he will be league Avg this year but let's not call him Robbie Alomar just yet. Whit Merrified was at 89 wRC+


So let's talk about that defense. Whit was outstanding, saving 10 runs over a full season. Cuthbert -7 at 3B. How was that constructed? It was all range, all -7 runs. His arm (which looks great from the eye test) was neutral value.


Whit? All his fielding value came from, yup, his range. Also shows up in his good baserunning stats. Cuthbert has poor baserunning stats.


Net: Cuthbert likely has no ability to play 2B, he won't get to many balls, we WILL give up runs that he is doubtful to replicate at the plate, and Whit gives you what he does if 2016 happens again for both

He was a rookie. Unless you're Eric Hosmer, or a Frenchy type who swings at everything, you tend to improve at the plate from your rookie year, especially if you have the plate discipline that Cutty had in the minors.

I'd look at his numbers until about mid-August (when he hit a wall), to see what his potential could be through an entire season. It's likely he adjusts and his patience starts turning into walks (as they did in the Royals system), as he was already seeing more pitches than anyone else on the offense.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

What's so great about Cuthberts bat? 94 wRC+ was same as Dyson, whom everyone in here rants about being overrated and "exposed" the longer he's in the lineup. Obv Cuthbert is young and his aging curve suggests he will be league Avg this year but let's not call him Robbie Alomar just yet. Whit Merrified was at 89 wRC+


So let's talk about that defense. Whit was outstanding, saving 10 runs over a full season. Cuthbert -7 at 3B. How was that constructed? It was all range, all -7 runs. His arm (which looks great from the eye test) was neutral value.


Whit? All his fielding value came from, yup, his range. Also shows up in his good baserunning stats. Cuthbert has poor baserunning stats.


Net: Cuthbert likely has no ability to play 2B, he won't get to many balls, we WILL give up runs that he is doubtful to replicate at the plate, and Whit gives you what he does if 2016 happens again for both

Cuthbert is intriguing if his bat is what it was through August. The KC Baseball Pro clue thinks he may have been injured sometime in late August (around the 20th) as KC had an off day, Cuthbert played the next day, and then was held out the day after... this timing corresponds with his numbers nose-diving from a very nice .290/.330/.450 line to his closing line. He also struggled with throws from 3B from that point.

It's possible it also was just him hitting the rookie wall or being exposed offensively.

If he could play neutral defense at 2B and produce that offensive line - .290/.340/.450 with 15-20 HR - that's a very plus bat at 2B and likely makes up for the defensive hit you take.

If it doesn't work, I'm fine with going with Merrifield or Colon (who spent the offseason working out with Gordon, apparently).

Merrifield's D and range would be a nice bonus, and I think he'd have a good chance to be a .275/.325/.375 bat - which would be around league average/replacement level for 2B - and plus defender.

So... it's a question of whether Cuthbert can be a 2-2.5 oWAR/0- -0.5 dWAR guy or if Merrifield can provide the inverse of those numbers.

Either way, I think KC can end up with roughly a 2-win situation at 2B, which would be nice.


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[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

He was a rookie. Unless you're Eric Hosmer, or a Frenchy type who swings at everything, you tend to improve at the plate from your rookie year, especially if you have the plate discipline that Cutty had in the minors.



I'd look at his numbers until mid-August (until he hit a wall), to see what his potential could be through an entire season. It's likely he adjusts and his patience starts turning into walks (as they did in the Royals system), as he was already seeing more pitches than anyone else on the offense.

He was .294/.341/.446 through August 22. Numbers nose-dived from there.


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[Prison Bitch]

Yes he did trail off a lot. Plus he had a month of top-end numbers at AAA.

[Hootie]

gotta agree with PB a bit ... Cuthbert doesn't impress me in any capacity. Don't understand the hype. He's OK.

[Great Expectations]

For most of the year Cuthbert had a great approach and hit a ton of line drives. He didn't have any huge holes in his swing (like Gordon on a slider down and in) and made some solid plays at third. He did make some weird errors on routine plays, usually throwing.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Romosexual

gotta agree with PB a bit ... Cuthbert doesn't impress me in any capacity. Don't understand the hype. He's OK.

Pros:
Professional ABs and approach
League average walk rate as a rookie indicAtes potential for better
Plus Arm for 3B (would be plus-plus at 2B)
45-50 power

Cons:
Slow (affects base running and range)
Doesn't have natural loft in swing (raw power is 60-65, but plays down because swing is line-drive oriented)
Small sample size

I didn't see enough to trust him as the everyday DH, but I saw enough to be optimistic he could be a solid MLB regular with potential for better.


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[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin

In all fairness, GMDM built the team, not Ned.

But Ned DOES seem to really know how to manage a clubhouse, keep guys loose, and the players do all seem to genuinely love playing for him. That counts for a lot, as far as I'm concerned.

You're right, I could have stated that better. GMDM provided the parts. Ned put them together.

[Lex Luthor]

Originally Posted by Romosexual

we've gotten really lucky for years now when it comes to converting failed starters into hoss relievers ... before Hochevar TJ'd himself, he had an outstanding, sensational year as the 8th inning guy - then, when he TJ'd himself, we discovered Wade Davis.

Dayton really Ned proofed the bullpen during our run. This year, it seems like we have Kelvin Herrera. Be really interesting to see if get back to having Ned run out Aaron Joakim Crow Soria to lose us game after game without trying to figure something else out all year long.

I'm more of a Maddon kind of guy - he got to the postseason, trusted NOBODY but Chapman ... and took a lot of grief for it because Chapman wore down. So I see what tk13 means when he says you can't just rely on guys like the borgs to throw 5 innings every game ... but, the way I look at it ... in the postseason, if we're going to lose, why not lose with Wade Davis opposed to Jeremy Guthrie?

that's why I was NEVER mad at Ned for pulling Shields to put in Yordano against Moss in that Wild Card game. The hindsight heroes were LIVID. I liked the move, and even said before that game, I thought Yo should be available from the pen. I always thought Yo projected to be more of a Aroldlis than a Pedro. Sad, because with Hammel and Wood I really think Yo could have been our new 8th inning badass Wade Davis. Or keep Herrera in that role and put Yo at closer.

Dude was built to be that elite closer we all love.

I agree, it was easy to second-guess the move after the move failed. It didn't bother me at all when he made the move.

[Great Expectations]

I just watched a few videos of Chelsor hitting. It appears that his initial load/pinch is very good, but he still sometimes bars his arms, especially his left one creating that chopping wood technique that DJ referenced. When he keeps it up with his right arm down and in he drives the ball very well.

I haven't seen any video of him from the minors, but it's apparent that he has been working on "building a house," but reverts to the arm bar on occasion. I noticed the arm bar most frequently when he was fooled on inside pitches creating jam shots the other way. Those blue jays hitters have been so successful crowding the plate expecting the inside (to their position) pitch and keeping the left arm high and right arm down for a while now.

Mantle is probably the best example of it, but Josh Donaldson has been killing with it as well.

[Hootie]

I hope I'm wrong about Cheslor ... I just never got the hype. It reminded me of '14 when some wanted Colon to take over at 3rd for a struggling Moose (at the plate).

The dude will make a nice play at 3rd and everyone will be like, "wow, look how good he is!" When the fact of the matter is, Moose is superior to Cheslor in every way ... and I cannot see for the life of me how he translates to being a 2nd baseman ... especially when this board hated Infante who was actually pretty good over at 2nd. It's going to drive people crazy if he plays 2nd base on a defensive level - I promise you that.

[Great Expectations]

If he grew up with the chopping wood approach he is undergoing a Joey Bats type of swing change. He is now picking up his left foot/lowering his left shoulder loading up in a similar fashion. You have to have great balance and a quick bat to do it. Joey Bats appears to be too old to still do it, but Chelsor isn't...

You also have to keep your right elbow in and left arm high. It also helps to crowd the plate and guess inside as you either need to be constantly guessing inside or have exceptionally fast hands. I saw Chelsor several times in great position at contact and several times barring his arms (which won't work with this set up).

Anybody (Duncan) know what his hitting style was in the minors?

Hosmer also tries to get in that same position at impact, but he drops his hands a lot more looping his swing.

[Great Expectations]

It looks like he had an extreme arm bar here in the minors. It gets a little better below, in one of his youtube clips it looks really good.



Here is what a really good one looks like, as much as we dislike him.



Mantle might have been the best with it

[sedated]

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

You're right, I could have stated that better. GMDM provided the parts. Ned put them together.

I've had discussions about the theory that GMDM "ned-proofed" the team in 2014 and 2015.

Ned can't set a lineup? Give him a lineup that' nearly even 1-8 so he can't screw it up (and even then he insisted on batting Esky at the top).

Ned can't handle a bullpen? Fill it with cyborg arms that will get anyone out.

[tomahawk kid]

Originally Posted by sedated

I've had discussions about the theory that GMDM "ned-proofed" the team in 2014 and 2015.

Ned can't set a lineup? Give him a lineup that' nearly even 1-8 so he can't screw it up (and even then he insisted on batting Esky at the top).

Ned can't handle a bullpen? Fill it with cyborg arms that will get anyone out.

This. So much of this.