If the Chiefs go 8-8 or better 49ers get a 2nd round pick.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

A third- or second-rounder from Kansas City, the remnant of the Alex Smith deal. Now it can be told: The second draft choice San Francisco will receive from the Smith deal will be K.C.'s second-rounder in 2014 if the Chiefs go 8-8 or better this season. It will be a third-rounder in 2014 if Kansas City is under .500 this season.

So: San Francisco will probably have first-, second- and four third-rounders next year. But if the Chiefs surprise, it'll more likely be a one, two twos and three threes. As we've seen, GM Trent Baalke is dangerous with extra picks in his hands. If Colin Kaepernick is very good, the Niners should be annual contenders for years with the picks laid out that way.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2SWCd8Gea

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

and for all of that, in Bray, they took the one QB with probably the most potential upside. If NONE of the draft's QB's are ready to play, then at least they took the most gifted guy. If they'd drafted him in the 3rd round, would you all still be flipping out?

Can we please stick to reality here, where the Chiefs drafted Knile Davis in the 3rd?

But lets be real here. No 2nd round QB has ever been better than Alex Smith...

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Instead of "best option," read "the only option that isn't a dumpster fire."

Matt Flynn, Kevin Kolb, Carson Palmer, any of the draft picks... dumpster fires.

The jury is out on Matt Flynn. He only needs to be a mediocre starting QB to make that trade a steal compared to 2nd rounders for Alex.

[Messier]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Duuuuuuuuuuuude.

At any given point in time, you can only choose from the options that are available to you. You can throw a temper tantrum because there's no Luck/RG3 in the draft, but it doesn't change the fact that there just wasn't even a Matt Ryan or a Joe Flacco. THE REST OF THE NFL CONFIRMED IT. Wanting it desperately to be so doesn't change the reality.

Reid/Dorsey took the best option that was available. Alex Smith was the best option out of a pool that included Kolb and Flynn...and nothing.

This isn't Madden 2013, they can't put it on a season simulator and just tank the year and try again next year. It's a business, they're paid to win, and they're going to try like hell to do so.

This was what was available. You can only deal in the realities.

This.

I hear people saying, just keep taking QBs in the first round until you hit. That's a sure way to lose your job, and to suck. So, they take Geno this year, they start him most likely he'll struggle, so take another next year. Do you start the rookie, or give Geno another year? So, you've got two rookie first round QBs. If Geno is still struggling a bit, do you put in the other? Maybe he struggles too. So, the next year you take another. Now you've got three first round draft pick QBs, two have looked good and bad at times, you could try to trade one, but they haven't impressed enough to get much back, but it doesn't really concern you anymore, because you just got fired.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Messier

This.

I hear people saying, just keep taking QBs in the first round until you hit. That's a sure way to lose your job, and to suck. So, they take Geno this year, they start him most likely he'll struggle, so take another next year. Do you start the rookie, or give Geno another year? So, you've got two rookie first round QBs. If Geno is still struggling a bit, do you put in the other? Maybe he struggles too. So, the next year you take another. Now you've got three first round draft pick QBs, two have looked good and bad at times, you could try to trade one, but they haven't impressed enough to get much back, but it doesn't really concern you anymore, because you just got fired.

1) No one suggested taking QBs in round 1 year after year. You keep taking the best QBs available if the previous one turns into Sam Bradford.

2) Continually trading for backups is a surefire way to keep your job and be successful, as the Chiefs have shown.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Messier

Are you saying he lost them the championship game?

He didn't win it.

Here is what Greg Cossell wrote about Alex's unwillingness to make throws from a clean pocket.

Originally Posted by Greg Cossell

Let’s start with the first 3rd down of the game. It was 3rd and 4; the 49ers had already gotten 1 first down. Michael Crabtree ran a sail route (kind of a flattened corner route). He was wide open. Smith, with no pressure in the pocket, did not pull the trigger. It was a throw that had to be made. The result of the play was an incompletion on a late check down to Frank Gore.

The first play of the 49ers fourth offensive possession was also telling. It was a shot play, a called big play off Smith boot action. Williams ran a deep post off a stutter move. The double move froze Corey Webster, and Williams raced by him. The design of the play worked. Smith overthrew Williams by 5 yards. A good throw, and it was a touchdown. An adequate throw, and it was still a 50 yard gain. This was another missed opportunity.

But the first play of the second half was perhaps the most indicative of Smith’s performance. You come out of halftime with a specific plan. The 49ers went to one of their staples, the wheel route. A shot play right out of the gate. Delanie Walker, from his line of scrimmage tight end position, ran by a slipping Webster. The concept worked to perfection. Walker screamed down the sideline. Smith again did not pull the trigger from a clean pocket. He ended up getting sacked for a 7 yard loss.

These are just a few examples of Smith’s tentative and uncertain pocket play last Sunday. The bottom line was this: Smith was reluctant to let it loose on routes and throws that were not only well designed, but were open. They were primary reads. No progressions were involved.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/01/24/c...e-a-week-made/

[Kaepernick]

Cliffs notes from Cossell's excerpts I posted above:


"The bottom line was this: Smith was reluctant to let it loose on routes and throws that were not only well designed, but were open. They were primary reads. No progressions were involved.

"Michael Crabtree ran a sail route (kind of a flattened corner route). He was wide open. Smith, with no pressure in the pocket, did not pull the trigger."

"The double move froze Corey Webster, and Williams raced by him. The design of the play worked. Smith overthrew Williams by 5 yards. A good throw, and it was a touchdown. An adequate throw, and it was still a 50 yard gain. This was another missed opportunity."

"Delanie Walker, from his line of scrimmage tight end position, ran by a slipping Webster. The concept worked to perfection. Walker screamed down the sideline. Smith again did not pull the trigger from a clean pocket. He ended up getting sacked for a 7 yard loss".

[Sandy Vagina]

^ you can pick 4 bad decisions or plays from every QB in every game.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

He didn't win it.


The first play of the 49ers fourth offensive possession was also telling. It was a shot play, a called big play off Smith boot action. Williams ran a deep post off a stutter move. The double move froze Corey Webster, and Williams raced by him. The design of the play worked. Smith overthrew Williams by 5 yards. A good throw, and it was a touchdown. An adequate throw, and it was still a 50 yard gain. This was another missed opportunity.

According to Mike Mayock, any starting QB in the NFL should make that throw every single time, or he won't bang the table for him.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

^ you can pick 4 bad decisions or plays from every QB in every game.

Smith was reluctant to let it loose on routes and throws that were not only well designed, but were open. They were primary reads. No progressions were involved.

That is a guiding philosophy, an MO, not 4 isolated bad decisions. That is Alex Smith to a tee.

No risk, no reward. Alex Smith is risk averse and does not make the required throws at the required times to win the big games.The single glaring exception is the Saints NFCD game.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

Smith was reluctant to let it loose on routes and throws that were not only well designed, but were open. They were primary reads. No progressions were involved.

That is a guiding philosophy, an MO, not 4 isolated bad decisions. That is Alex Smith to a tee.

No risk, no reward. Alex Smith is risk averse and does not make the required throws at the required times to win the big games.The single glaring exception is the Saints NFCD game.

I think you and others will be surprised. Some of what you say is true.... or I should say... has been true. We are dealing with extents here though. No organization would trade what was traded to get Alex, if what you claim is true to the extent you seem to be claiming. Harbaugh wouldn't have continued to start Alex in 2012 if all those 2011 quotes were quite as accurate as you want to make them. Or are you then saying both Harbaugh and Reid are morons?

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by ayleswbj

He did have that game won, a 73 bomb and 40yrd to Davis. Also drove them down the field to take the lead. I was at this game, i never been to an NFL football game in worse conditions. It was an absolute sunami. Take a look at Eli's numbers as well, he also didnt play well. Alex threw for 200yrds and Eil for 300, but it took him 58 att to do it. Smith only attempt 26. He also had 6 carries for 42 yrds. Anyway he was pretty great in the Playoffs, 5TD, 0INT, 70 something yrds rushing. anyway you had to be at this game to appreciate it from a football standpoint and how difficult it was. One of those games where you only noticed the stats later. It was the big play after a bunch of nothing for both guys.

Alex was 1 for 13 for 3rd down conversions.

He completed 1 of 9 passes to his wide receivers.

12 for 26 passing, 46% completion.

Wow, great game!

Eli is not elite, but he has the balls to make the risky throw when the risk/reward ratio demands it. That is why Eli has 2 super bowl rings and Alex was benched during a super bowl run.

Alex Smith WILL NOT make the risky throw when the potential reward requires it. All great QBs want to put the game on their shoulders and will take that risk. Alex will not take that risk.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by jd34

In that NFCC game Michael Crabtree was the only 49er WR that had ever started there before. The other WR was Brett Swain, an emergency waiver pick up from Green Bay that had only been with the team for a couple of weeks. NYG doubled Crabtree and effectively took him out of the game. Vernon Davis, though a very good deep threat for a TE, is a poor route runner so he was of little value due to the Giants doubling him with a LB and safety. The biggest weakness of that team was a lack of quality pass receivers. (As a witness to that fact, after that season, they signed a washed up Randy Moss who did nothing all year. They also signed Mario Manningham who had been the #3 receiver in NY, and they used their #1 pick for AJ Jenkins, who to this point has been a total disappointment. Because of the poor showing by Jenkins, they now have brought in Anquan Boldin to hopefully bring the WR corp up to competitive levels.)

Still, the 49er offense put up enough points so that lacking TWO Kyle Williams fumbles, would have gone to the SB.

You even mention Kyle Williams, WR, fumbling, but say that Crabtree was the only experienced WR the 49ers had.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

Alex was 1 for 13 for 3rd down conversions.

He completed 1 of 9 passes to his wide receivers.

12 for 26 passing, 46% completion.

Wow, great game!

Eli is not elite, but he has the balls to make the risky throw when the risk/reward ratio demands it. That is why Eli has 2 super bowl rings and Alex was benched during a super bowl run.

Alex Smith WILL NOT make the risky throw when the potential reward requires it. All great QBs want to put the game on their shoulders and will take that risk. Alex will not take that risk.

Sounds like a guy to give up a 1st round pick for! Hell yeah!

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Chiefs fans and ownership hate risk. Ergo, Alex "short-timer" Smith was the only option available. Plus, you get the added True Fan bonus of drafting a fatty high! Combine all this with a good ol' 9-7 followed by the obligatory wild card ass-whipping, and you've just experienced an absolute nirvana of an offseason and regular season for the loyal red and gold maroons.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Also, re: Vernon Davis TDs in that NFC championship game...

The second one was a nice throw to get it underneath the safety. Davis toasted his coverage off the line. The coverage over the top was the only thing that made that tough.

The 73-yarder, he had 2-4 steps on the defender and no help over the top when Smith hit him. That play was not about Alex Smith (though credit to him for not missing a wide-open receiver 25-30 yards downfield). It was about a blown coverage and Vernon Davis' freaky speed.

That is the only way Alex is willing to throw down field. His receiver must have complete separation with 0% chance for interception. He won't take a risk beyond that.

I don't know if that is because he has never been very accurate, or due to loss of confidence or ability from the shoulder injury, or just an innate aversion to risk.

He played the short game in college and rarely went down field. And that is how he plays as a pro. He will throw deep to an isolated receiver who is wide open, especially as the primary read. Otherwise, he refuses to risk an interception throwing to a receiver down field if a DB is in the proximity.