Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

[patteeu]

This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.

If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.

[Reaper16]

Originally Posted by patteeu

For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.

They have to be idiots, then. Actual, confirmed idiots. Like, "makes a strong argument for eugenics" type idiots.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by patteeu

This article has a similar problem that those who have super high expectations for Geno have. It treats Geno as a plain-vanilla, generic player whose future will be determined on the basis of the position he's taken in the draft and statistics based on that draft position. That said, it's an interesting analysis about draft value.

If people look at Geno Smith as an individual and determine that his talents warrant making him your starting QB, he absolutely deserves to be taken 1.1. Not everyone is convinced of that though. For example, I was listening to a ProFootballWeekly podcast this morning and their draft "experts" have Geno ranked as the 102nd player overall and the 6th best QB.

The article doesn't treat Geno as a plain-vanilla generic player. The article looks at #1 overall picks. Period. Geno isn't part of the equation in terms of the article. Geno is only part of the equation in this discussion because we have been talking about taking Geno with that first pick and talking as though it is a franchise saving move. Crush is proof positive of this when he gives examples of "franchise quarterbacks."

We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB.

This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

The article doesn't treat Geno as a plain-vanilla generic player. The article looks at #1 overall picks. Period. Geno isn't part of the equation in terms of the article. Geno is only part of the equation in this discussion because we have been talking about taking Geno with that first pick and talking as though it is a franchise saving move. Crush is proof positive of this when he gives examples of "franchise quarterbacks."

We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB.

This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion.

Yes, I know the article doesn't specifically discuss Geno Smith, but it treats draft pick slots as generic players and talks about value of that pick in terms of previous statistics instead of the individual attributes of that particular prospect. I'm not criticizing the article, I actually think it's very good. I'm pointing out that it has the same predictive flaw that those who use the draft position of prior super bowl winning QBs to make a case for "trying" by taking a QB in the first round (or with the first pick) in a particular draft.

It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ.

I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Yes, I know the article doesn't specifically discuss Geno Smith, but it treats draft pick slots as generic players and talks about value of that pick in terms of previous statistics instead of the individual attributes of that particular prospect. I'm not criticizing the article, I actually think it's very good. I'm pointing out that it has the same predictive flaw that those who use the draft position of prior super bowl winning QBs to make a case for "trying" by taking a QB in the first round (or with the first pick) in a particular draft.

It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ.

I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.

Therein lies the rub. First of all, the sample size is really small, just 62 number one draft picks; secondly, in terms of QBs the sample size is shrunk even more since not all #1 picks were Qbs; thirdly, there is a wide variance of standard deviation because of extreme outliers like Peyton Manning and JaMarcus Russell.

I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB."

Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"?

Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team?

How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB?

I don't know.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Therein lies the rub. First of all, the sample size is really small, just 62 number one draft picks; secondly, in terms of QBs the sample size is shrunk even more since not all #1 picks were Qbs; thirdly, there is a wide variance of standard deviation because of extreme outliers like Peyton Manning and JaMarcus Russell.

I suppose that is why I asked what are people's definitions of a "franchise QB."

Is a franchise QB defined by how many pro-bowls they are selected?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many Super Bowls they win?

Is a franchise QB defined by how many times "they will their team to win"?

Is a franchise QB defined by how much extra revenue they generate for their team?

How long do you give a QB to prove he is a franchise QB?

I don't know.

I've agreed with all of your posts in this thread. You're asking the right questions, IMO. I've personally been shocked that many people now think that Joe Flacco is a "franchise quarterback" and I found it interesting when you posted his CAV next to all those other QBs in post 77.