2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[lewdog]

The Royals are considering demoting infielder Mike Moustakas as they open roster space for a reliever, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets. It’s been a disappointing season for Moustakas, who’s hitting just .147/.215/.321. The 2007 second-overall pick has struggled since a strong season in 2012 and has been below replacement level in 2014, even though he’s a skilled defensive third baseman.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/0...edium=facebook

[TLO]

So can Gio play 3rd?

[-King-]

Kind of late, but what happened to Omar?

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Big Smoke

So can Gio play 3rd?

Sure can. I'd hope he stays up instead of bringing up a shitty mop up reliever.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Sure can. I'd hope he stays up instead of bringing up a shitty mop up reliever.

I'd be fine with it for now. Swapping Gio for Moose will likely hurt us somewhat defensively, but Gio clearly provides better offensive production. (For now)

[Prison Bitch]

If they send Moose down they really have to leave Gio on the roster. They're down to one legit utility guy and Gio fills that role since he can play 2B and 3B. Sucks for platoon splits but Moose wasn't hitting RH either. He's had a long leash as it is, time to wrap that leash around his neck and drag him back to the minors

[Why Not?]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

If they send Moose down they really have to leave Gio on the roster. They're down to one legit utility guy and Gio fills that role since he can play 2B and 3B. Sucks for platoon splits but Moose wasn't hitting RH either. He's had a long leash as it is, time to wrap that leash around his neck and drag him back to the minors

Yep. The dude is literally an automatic out. Combined with Butters worthlessness this year, it's actual kind of shocking the Royals are even sniffing .500. Maybe Mouse can go pull an Alex Gordon in the minors. I doubt it, but maybe.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Why Not?

Yep. The dude is literally an automatic out. Combined with Butters worthlessness this year, it's actual kind of shocking the Royals are even sniffing .500. Maybe Mouse can go pull an Alex Gordon in the minors. I doubt it, but maybe.

People forget that Alex's output was at least respectable before he was sent down to the Minors (injuries were more of a factor for him than his on the field performance).

Moose is closer to Tony Pena Jr. than he's ever been to Alex.

[noa]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-l...try-breakfast/
A Less Balanced Country Breakfast
by Chad Young - May 12, 2014

For the past few years, we’ve grown accustomed to a steady diet of high on-base, high-average, moderate power output from Billy Butler. In the early going, 2014 hasn’t been nearly as tasty.

Terrible breakfast puns aside, Butler’s numbers are down across the board, and anyone lining him up in a util slot has got to be concerned. So is Butler a buy low or a guy you should be trying to get rid of?


Let’s start at the surface – a career .297/.362/.454 hitter, good for 15-20 HR (not counting the crazy 2012 season), Butler has kicked off 2014 on pace for 5-6 HR with a .242/.295/.311 line. His .298 BABIP doesn’t scream “bad luck,” but Butler’s career BABIP is .326. His batted ball data shows an increase in line drives and a decrease in fly balls this year, which should lead to a higher, not a lower BABIP, although a big drop in HR/FB rate means that more of those fly balls are staying in play, which definitely hurts.

The thing is, even if we assume a .327 BABIP, that adds three hits. Let’s assume, just to be nice, that they are all doubles. Three more doubles and his line looks like this: .265/.319/.356. So, you know, still really bad.

Part of the problem is that Butler has been striking out far more than normal. His career rate (14.5%) is a bit lower than he has shown the last two years (16.3% in 2012, 15.3% in 2013), but so far this year he is at 20.5%, which dwarfs all his previous numbers. At the same time, his BB% (7.8%) would be his lowest since 2008. I don’t know if anyone has done any research on this, but I’d bet more Ks plus fewer BBs equals less production. Just a hunch.

The problem for Butler seems to be an odd shift in his plate discipline. He is making contact just as well as ever, both in pitches in and out of the zone, but he appears to be swinging at fewer good pitches (59.3%, compared to 62.7% for his career, and on pace to be a career low) and more bad pitches (31.3%, compared to 27.5% for his career, and on pace to be a career high). The result is two-fold.

First, the increased strike out rate is coming despite no meaningful shift in his SwStrk%, which may be partially bad luck, but is also likely due to take pitches for strikes so much more often.

Second, his IFFB% is 9.5%, more than 3x the 3.1% he posted last year, and 50% higher than his career rate of 6.3%. Butler is chasing more pitches and making contact with more bad pitches – bad contact (like, say, infield fly balls) seems like a plausible outcome.

It’s worth noting that the plate discipline numbers I am citing come from Baseball Info Solutions and that that the PitchF/x data for Butler does not show the same discrepancy compared to his career numbers, but the impact is pretty clear.

If you are a Butler owner, or considering getting into the Country Breakfast business, I’d be watching those plate discipline numbers. If Butler keeps chasing, taking strikes, hitting pop ups and striking out, the BABIP regression (and it is coming), won’t be enough to help. If the BIS data isn’t as accurate as PitchF/x, or if Butler starts to show the approach we’ve come to expect, the results should follow.

Personally, I have never felt that Butler’s actual fantasy value matched his perceived fantasy value – util-only bats without much power just aren’t my thing. The troubling approach in the early season would be enough for me to want to sell off any shares I had. I’d push the unexpectedly low BABIP, point out the steady swinging strike rate, and hope to find someone willing to buy on a bounce back.

Butler’s Yahoo Average Draft position was 106.7, near players like Sergio Romo, Brett Lawrie, and Hisashi Iwakuma. If I could turn Butler into one of those players (particularly if I needed a closer, MI if Lawrie qualifies or a SP), I would do it in a heartbeat.
Posted via Mobile Device

[mr. tegu]

We cannot continue with just 5 guys for the infield. Esky could use a day off here and there, and clearly so could Infante when he comes back.

Gio needs to stay up regardless if Moose goes down or not. I think he has earned that. On a daily basis we can put one of Valencia, Moose, or Gio at third and then still allow Esky and Infante to have a day off every now and then as well by keeping Gio around.

[SPATCH]

Get Moose the hell away from this team. He has more than played his way off of it.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by SPATCH

Get Moose the hell away from this team. He has more than played his way off of it.

This isn't inaccurate, but we would need a replacement infielder in my opinion. Five infielders is just not enough. We could really use someone who is comfortable playing first and third base. Imagine Billy at third?

[WhawhaWhat]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

This isn't inaccurate, but we would need a replacement infielder in my opinion. Five infielders is just not enough. We could really use someone who is comfortable playing first and third base. Imagine Billy at third?

Alex Gordon has played first before.

[SPATCH]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

This isn't inaccurate, but we would need a replacement infielder in my opinion. Five infielders is just not enough. We could really use someone who is comfortable playing first and third base. Imagine Billy at third?

Escobar - SS
Infante - 2B/SS
Valencia - 3B/2B
Gio - 2B/3B
Hosmer - 1B
Butler - 1B

[Bowser]

Time for Christian Colon to get a look if Moose goes down?