Hot Stove League

['Hamas' Jenkins]

As I figured, the Yankees are going after Suppan. He served us well and got a ring. I'd like him to succeed in NY, but I don't think he'll do well as a guy who pitches to contact behind a horrible defense, poor pitching coach and intemperent media. Just my opinion, though.

Seems like the Yankees are going to try and unload Gary "Flax" Sheffield. I'm trying to figure out who'd be stupid enough to take on a broken down OF with poor defense who's owed $13 million.

Soriano and Aramis Ramirez have already filed for FA. No surprises there.

Who do you want **your** team to go after this offseason??

[Mecca]

The Devil Rays are going to have to move someone.........Delmon Young's ready.......BJ Uptons future is probably in the OF. They have way to many outfielders.

[Miles]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Edmonds

Sorry, pet peave

Go away Greg Maddox.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Let Soup walk. He was just classified as a class A free agent today. Let the Yankees overpay for him, we'll take the 1st rounder. They'll get a guy that is exceedingly average and caught fire at the right time. I like Suppan a lot, but he's the definition of a #3 starter, not a $10 million/season guy.

I'd go hard after Ted Lilly and Adam Eaton. I'd make a run for Lugo at 2b and leave AW as the closer. Pick up Edmonds' option, make a run at Vernon Wells in 2008. Do whatever it takes to rid us of Guano, Encarnacion just has no place on this club and after snubbing the team during the WS celebration, b'bye. He'd better be careful though, the Cards have gotten quite good at trading guys to baseball hell holes (Weeno Martinez to Tampa, Burger King to Colorado). We'll ship that schmuck to Pittsburgh or Kansas City so fast it will make his head spin.

Carp
Lilly
Weaver
Eaton
Reyes

Pretty good rotation. If Mulder would come back with a Matt Morris in 2005 kind of deal, I'd consider him as well. However, I was at game 6 of the 2005 NLCS when that panzy completely spit the bit and closed down Busch II, so I have an irrational hatred of him. He has the intestinal fortitude of a 12 year old girl...or Jake Plummer. Another option is Gil Meche, he finally has his power stuff back and would be a good complement to the rest of the rotation.

Eck
Lugo
Pujols
Edmonds
Rolen
Duncan
warm body to replace Guano
Molina
P

I wonder if that's enough of a talent influx. Yes, they won the WS, but this team only won 83 games. The national media has suddenly gone crazy saying that this team is far better than their regular season record. I live in Columbia, where the Cards are on FSMW. I watched probably 100+ Cardinals games this year, trust me, they were no better than the 83 win team they ended up. That club was full of holes. That lineup I posted looks to be short 1 quality bat. Duncan is probably better in RF, so if you get rid of Guano and slide Duncan over to RF, that leaves LF. Soriano would be a great fit in the 6 hole on the Cards, but he's going to be waaaay overpriced.

Seeing as how I'm not being paid to make these decisions, I'll put my trust in Jocketty to get us that bat, his gambles have come up aces more often than not.

Duncan/Guano for Crawford? Sorry to be a douche, but that's laughable. Crawford is a franchise player for most teams in baseball. Duncan is a 1-dimensional slugger that was seriously exposed in post-season play. Guano just sucks at everything.

Zito's fastball tops out around 88 anymore, he's a shoulder surgery waiting to happen. There's not a high end pitcher on the market worth going after this year, take a chance on some upside guys, preferably ones that pitched in the AL last year (inflated ERAs = lower contract demands).

Zito has never had a plus-plus fastball. It's always been between 85-90.

Soriano would bad 2 or 4 for us, but there is no way we'd get him (and I'm terrified of his defense). Duncan is a legitimate left handed bat, and had identical numbers to Ryan Howard's last year. I'm not saying he's Ryan Howard, but the kid has 30-35 HR ability, year in, year out. The Rays need a first baseman, and have a lot of outfielders coming up who will be much, much cheaper than Crawford. Encarnacion reeks of a Pitt, Tampa, Colorado unload. He won't be on this team next year.

I highly, highly doubt the Cardinals go after Lugo, especially given his checkered personal history. They are definitely a team that values character over ability and a guy who beats the piss out of his wife isn't going to be very welcome in that clubhouse.

Mulder will get a deal similar to what we gave Morris in '05, and if he responds, I imagine we'll lock him up for a while, however, at some point we need to lock up Carp long term (he has a 2008 option).

I was at game 6 as well, and I was furious at Mulder, but even Carpenter wasn't going to win that game. We just got blown away. with that being said, he definitely didn't gut it out in the second when he needed to, and that would have given our team a huge boost.

170 Innings of Adam Wainwright's good stuff is more valuable than 90 innings of his great stuff. JMO.

Carp, Weaver, Wainwright, Reyes, and Mulder with a spot starter yet to be determined would be the prudent course, IMO.

I see our bullpen being much improved due to the absence of Marquis and a reduced workload on the lefties. Getting Rincon back will help.

The team that won the WS was a 90 win team, IMO. Pujols wasn't the same after his oblique injury and Rolen fell apart in Sept and Edmonds was a walking mash unit.

Only Pujols, Rolen, and Enc played more than 130 games, IIRC.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mecca

The Devil Rays are going to have to move someone.........Delmon Young's ready.......BJ Uptons future is probably in the OF. They have way to many outfielders.

Upton will end up at 3b, Baldelli likely at 1b.

Crawford, Gomez, Young in the OF

Baldelli, Cantu, ? Upton on the IF

They could also slide Young to DH and keep Baldelli in the OF.

Joel Guzman is a very good 3b prospect, if he can prove himself in the next couple of years, he'll probably go to 3rd and bump Upton to DH or even the OF, but that would still just put Gomez at DH.

They don't have to deal anyone.

[Miles]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They don't have to deal anyone.

Yeah I don't think they have to at all and for sure not for the right price.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Honestly, I'd like to see us make an offer to Shannon Stewart to fill one of the corner OF spots. He's coming off an injury and could probably be had for next to nothing.

[Miles]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Honestly, I'd like to see us make an offer to Shannon Stewart to fill one of the corner OF spots. He's coming off an injury and could probably be had for next to nothing.

Might be a very nice option if his price is right coming off injury.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Miles

Might be a very nice option if his price is right coming off injury.

That's also a Walt Jocketty move.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

170 Innings of Adam Wainwright's good stuff is more valuable than 90 innings of his great stuff. JMO.

Disagree. You have to factor in financial considerations.

Looper's awful, period. We can't have him closing until Izzy is healthy (projected to be around the AS break).

So, do we pay $6 million for a borowski or his ilk to close until Izzy is back?

Wainwright is probably only a 6 inning starter with about a 4.00 ERA. That kind of starter costs you $5 million on the open market.

Wainwright is a closer that saves 40 games with an ERA around 2. That guy costs you $8 million.

Also, BP did a study on what it would take for a good starter to be more valuable than an elite closer. The #s show that a starting pitcher needs to have an ERA .75 or less higher as a starter to be as valuable. In other words, if AW puts up a 2.50 ERA as a closer, he'd have to put up a 3.25 ERA as a starter (or better) to be as valuable from a wins gained/loss perspective.

Wainwright is my closer for the next 4 years, then you deal him and let Chris Perez take his job on the cheap.

[Miles]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That's also a Walt Jocketty move.

Yep.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Disagree. You have to factor in financial considerations.

Looper's awful, period. We can't have him closing until Izzy is healthy (projected to be around the AS break).

So, do we pay $6 million for a borowski or his ilk to close until Izzy is back?

Wainwright is probably only a 6 inning starter with about a 4.00 ERA. That kind of starter costs you $5 million on the open market.

Wainwright is a closer that saves 40 games with an ERA around 2. That guy costs you $8 million.

Also, BP did a study on what it would take for a good starter to be more valuable than an elite closer. The #s show that a starting pitcher needs to have an ERA .75 or less higher as a starter to be as valuable. In other words, if AW puts up a 2.50 ERA as a closer, he'd have to put up a 3.25 ERA as a starter (or better) to be as valuable from a wins gained/loss perspective.

Wainwright is my closer for the next 4 years, then you deal him and let Chris Perez take his job on the cheap.

I would agree with this, if not for the new CBA. The luxury tax ceiling got bumped way up, and FA's are going to get overpaid. That 6 inning starter of which you speak (Jeff Weaver) is going to command 7 million, not 5. Given the Cards lack of depth in the rotation (especially since Mulder is an unknown) you need Wainwright up front to help solidify the rotation. You can't have Chris Narveson and his unproven elbow shoulder the load if someone goes Ponson/Marquis or Mulder doesn't round into form.

[teedubya]

Wow, as long as I have been a fan of baseball, it amazes me that I have never heard the term Hot Stove League. I have watched Ken Burns series several times, and still have never heard it.

weird.

And to think, I thought I knew it all.

[Miles]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Disagree. You have to factor in financial considerations.

Looper's awful, period. We can't have him closing until Izzy is healthy (projected to be around the AS break).

So, do we pay $6 million for a borowski or his ilk to close until Izzy is back?

Wainwright is probably only a 6 inning starter with about a 4.00 ERA. That kind of starter costs you $5 million on the open market.

Wainwright is a closer that saves 40 games with an ERA around 2. That guy costs you $8 million.

Also, BP did a study on what it would take for a good starter to be more valuable than an elite closer. The #s show that a starting pitcher needs to have an ERA .75 or less higher as a starter to be as valuable. In other words, if AW puts up a 2.50 ERA as a closer, he'd have to put up a 3.25 ERA as a starter (or better) to be as valuable from a wins gained/loss perspective.

Wainwright is my closer for the next 4 years, then you deal him and let Chris Perez take his job on the cheap.

Im a bit torn on Wainwright as a closer or starter since he is not a proven starter. A good starter with his kind of stuff is going to cost much more than 5M per year.

I don't buy that starter vs. closer analysis at all. So basically any very good closer is worth more than any of the top pitchers in the game?

[DJ's left nut]

I don't think you can plan your offseason around him as a starter and Looper as your 1st half closer. You've just turned your bullpen from a strength to a weakness.

Wainwright is flexible, so why not take advantage of it? If one of our starters collapse, then we shift AW to the rotation and go with Looper until Izzy is healthy or we can find a viable replacement (Kinney?). If, however, we come up roses in the rotation, we have an absolutely nails bullpen. Why not start out with your most flexible arrangement (5 possible starters plus Wainwright in the wings) instead of one that negates AW's flexibility (4 starters + AW, with Looper as the closer).

It is easier to get a middle of the rotation starter than it is to get an elite closer. So why take a guy like Wainwright, who has the makeup and stuff of an elite closer, and make him a middle of the rotation starter?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Miles

Im a bit torn on Wainwright as a closer or starter since he is not a proven starter. A good starter with his kind of stuff is going to cost much more than 5M per year.

I don't buy that starter vs. closer analysis at all. So basically any very good closer is worth more than any of the top pitchers in the game?

Adam's stuff as a starter is nowhere near his stuff as a reliever, his minor league track record bears that out. He also has a history of wearing down in the 2nd half of the season. He will not be nearly as effective in the starting rotation as he was in the bullpen, so you can't project his #s or his stuff into his role as a starter.

And I agree, the closer analysis is flawed. I think it is fairly accurate for the middle of the road guys (i.e. a closer with a 3.5 ERA is more valuable than a starter with a 4.25 ERA), but #1 starter is the most valuable asset in the game.