Joe Posnanski - Huard's numbers add up

Hammock Parties · 11-07-2006, 02:47 AM

HUARD’S NUMBERS ADD UP

Many, many (many) Second Guess readers wrote in to say that Trent Green should absolutely, definitely and without question be the Chiefs’ starter when he is ready to play. This is a fine opinion to have, and we would expect nothing less from our brilliant readers. Green has been a good quarterback for years, a team leader, and we appreciate that it would be fair and intelligent to give him his job back when he’s ready.

However — however — many of these same readers have tried to downplay just how well Damon Huard has played this half-season. They were furious with us for suggesting that Huard has played every bit as well or better than Green ever did. They apparently feel that numbers like “interceptions” and “touchdown passes” and “wins” are misleading. Perhaps they are right. Perhaps Huard has thrown a heaping handful of dropped interceptions and bad touchdown passes. Perhaps he has, as one reader explained, “thrived because the Chiefs have kept him on a leash.”

We’re not exactly sure how that leash thing would make a quarterback thrive. But we’re not here to argue.

Instead, we would like to offer one more stat for your consideration. The good people at Stats Inc. offer a category called “poor throws.” We assume this refers to, you know, poor throws. We don’t know how they determine it or just how poor a throw has to be to qualify. But we trust the Stats Inc. folks.

Damon Huard has 16 poor throws this year in 202 passes. Add in his one interception, and that means about 8.4 percent of his throws this year were bad or picked off. We’ll call 8.4 his BOPO number — the percentage of passes that were Bad Or Picked Off.

[How good is Huard’s BOPO number? It’s the second best in football. It’s significantly better than Tom Brady (16.9), Peyton Manning (12.5) or Michael Vick (19.4). It’s also much better than Trent Green ever did in any season. Green’s best BOPO was last year, when he had 62 poor throws and 10 interceptions in 507 throws. That’s a BOPO of 14.2. That’s good — the league average is 16 — but it’s not even close to the accuracy Huard has shown this year. Folks, you can believe it or not: But this guy has been incredible.

•OK, so you’re wondering who has the best BOPO this year. Well, it’s Houston’s David Carr with a 7.2. We don’t know what that means.

•Who has the worst BOPO? A couple of young guys: Oakland’s Andrew Walter (23.6 — youch) and Arizona’s Matt Leinart (22.9). We want to give special mention to Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb, a veteran who scored a horrendous 20.6.

•Just one more Huard note. Duff suggests that while Huard has done wonderfully, he’s essentially just like Mike Livingston, who did an excellent job as an emergency fill-in during the Chiefs magical 1969 season and then sat down when Len Dawson returned. Well, Livingston played well, but his numbers — 84 for 161 (52 percent), four touchdown passes, seven interceptions — were hardly in Huard’s class.

teedubya · 11-07-2006, 02:51 AM

RINGLEADER · 11-07-2006, 03:05 AM

I don't get these articles/arguments. Anyone who says Huard hasn't played well is just stupid. He HAS benefitted from some dropped INTs, but so does every QB (I know this because I've seen our CBs drop quite a few this year).

Anyway, my vote is still to play Huard until he stops winning. Changing in the middle of a winning streak is dumb.

**Anyong Bluth** · 11-07-2006, 03:07 AM

Uh I think Surtain has atleast 4 hit his stone hands and Law maybe 2 or 3

tk13 · 11-07-2006, 03:15 AM

I'd believe that stat, Damon's strength is probably that he doesn't try to force too much.

I think there are some very good reasons to say you want Huard, but it seems like the people defending Huard are using information that is completely irrelevant. Like this stat with bad throws, are we supposed to believe David Carr is better than Peyton Manning? No way... Manning's just more likely to force things, because he knows he's good. Kubiak isn't going to put the entire game on Carr's shoulders. I like statistics but sometimes you gotta have common sense about this stuff.

Rukdafaidas · 11-07-2006, 06:25 AM

This whole Green vs. Huard thing is just nuts. Huard has done FAR better than I would have ever thought he could possibly do. BUT, let's put this thing in perspective. If the season were over and we could only keep one of these guys, who would you pick?
Regardless of what anyone says, Huard has definitely been on a leash. I compare what he's being asked to do to Plummer's role the last couple of years in Denver. They're running a ball control passing offense.
I know GoChiefs has thrown up all kinds of stats comparing Green to Huard, using yards per catch, but that's very misleading. When LJ catches a 2 yard pass and takes it 70 yards, does that count as a 2 yard pass or 70? Yep, it counts as 70 and it doesn't take but a couple of those to throw the whole average thing out the window. The Chiefs gameplan is now very similar to Denver's, without the bootlegs of course. They're throwing short, short, short, short............then bomb (especially after a turnover).
Do you not think that Green could complete that 2 yard pass? Green is one of the most accurate passers I've ever witnessed, especially in the 15 to 30 yard range. He could do everything that Huard is being asked to do, in his sleep.
The real question we should be asking is not Huard or Green, BUT, should we keep the new Huard gameplan or the old Green gameplan. When Green got hurt, they threw the Chiefs' offensive playbook out the window and the new one seems to be working quite well. We now have Gonzo playing a more important role in the new offense, which I like.

Direckshun · 11-07-2006, 11:47 AM

What exactly is a "poor throw"?

Whatever.

htismaqe · 11-07-2006, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk13

I'd believe that stat, Damon's strength is probably that he doesn't try to force too much.

I think there are some very good reasons to say you want Huard, but it seems like the people defending Huard are using information that is completely irrelevant. Like this stat with bad throws, are we supposed to believe David Carr is better than Peyton Manning? No way... Manning's just more likely to force things, because he knows he's good. Kubiak isn't going to put the entire game on Carr's shoulders. I like statistics but sometimes you gotta have common sense about this stuff.

Exactly.

This "low bad throws" ratio = SAFE

**noa** · 11-07-2006, 11:55 AM

I wish I got paid to judge whether a QB's pass was poor or not. That's one hell of a job.

Hammock Parties · 11-07-2006, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rukdafaidas

I know GoChiefs has thrown up all kinds of stats comparing Green to Huard, using yards per catch, but that's very misleading. When LJ catches a 2 yard pass and takes it 70 yards, does that count as a 2 yard pass or 70? Yep, it counts as 70 and it doesn't take but a couple of those to throw the whole average thing out the window.

That argument doesn't hold water. Green racked up big yardage on screen passes to Priest Holmes for years. As a team, we've been at or near the top of the league in YAC for years under Green.

11-07-2006, 02:47 AM
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4700478	Joe Posnanski - Huard's numbers add up HUARD’S NUMBERS ADD UP Many, many (many) Second Guess readers wrote in to say that Trent Green should absolutely, definitely and without question be the Chiefs’ starter when he is ready to play. This is a fine opinion to have, and we would expect nothing less from our brilliant readers. Green has been a good quarterback for years, a team leader, and we appreciate that it would be fair and intelligent to give him his job back when he’s ready. However — however — many of these same readers have tried to downplay just how well Damon Huard has played this half-season. They were furious with us for suggesting that Huard has played every bit as well or better than Green ever did. They apparently feel that numbers like “interceptions” and “touchdown passes” and “wins” are misleading. Perhaps they are right. Perhaps Huard has thrown a heaping handful of dropped interceptions and bad touchdown passes. Perhaps he has, as one reader explained, “thrived because the Chiefs have kept him on a leash.” We’re not exactly sure how that leash thing would make a quarterback thrive. But we’re not here to argue. Instead, we would like to offer one more stat for your consideration. The good people at Stats Inc. offer a category called “poor throws.” We assume this refers to, you know, poor throws. We don’t know how they determine it or just how poor a throw has to be to qualify. But we trust the Stats Inc. folks. Damon Huard has 16 poor throws this year in 202 passes. Add in his one interception, and that means about 8.4 percent of his throws this year were bad or picked off. We’ll call 8.4 his BOPO number — the percentage of passes that were Bad Or Picked Off. [How good is Huard’s BOPO number? It’s the second best in football. It’s significantly better than Tom Brady (16.9), Peyton Manning (12.5) or Michael Vick (19.4). It’s also much better than Trent Green ever did in any season. Green’s best BOPO was last year, when he had 62 poor throws and 10 interceptions in 507 throws. That’s a BOPO of 14.2. That’s good — the league average is 16 — but it’s not even close to the accuracy Huard has shown this year. Folks, you can believe it or not: But this guy has been incredible. •OK, so you’re wondering who has the best BOPO this year. Well, it’s Houston’s David Carr with a 7.2. We don’t know what that means. •Who has the worst BOPO? A couple of young guys: Oakland’s Andrew Walter (23.6 — youch) and Arizona’s Matt Leinart (22.9). We want to give special mention to Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb, a veteran who scored a horrendous 20.6. •Just one more Huard note. Duff suggests that while Huard has done wonderfully, he’s essentially just like Mike Livingston, who did an excellent job as an emergency fill-in during the Chiefs magical 1969 season and then sat down when Len Dawson returned. Well, Livingston played well, but his numbers — 84 for 161 (52 percent), four touchdown passes, seven interceptions — were hardly in Huard’s class.
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11-07-2006, 02:51 AM	#2
teedubya Most Valuable Poster Join Date: Oct 2003 Casino cash: $9480002
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11-07-2006, 03:05 AM	#3
RINGLEADER In Search of a Life Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Confusion, USA Casino cash: $8610503	I don't get these articles/arguments. Anyone who says Huard hasn't played well is just stupid. He HAS benefitted from some dropped INTs, but so does every QB (I know this because I've seen our CBs drop quite a few this year). Anyway, my vote is still to play Huard until he stops winning. Changing in the middle of a winning streak is dumb.
Posts: 46,695

11-07-2006, 03:07 AM	#4
Anyong Bluth Deus ambulans inter homines Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Chicago Casino cash: $9659340	Uh I think Surtain has atleast 4 hit his stone hands and Law maybe 2 or 3 __________________ Suck it, *beautiful*
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11-07-2006, 03:15 AM	#5
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1972500	I'd believe that stat, Damon's strength is probably that he doesn't try to force too much. I think there are some very good reasons to say you want Huard, but it seems like the people defending Huard are using information that is completely irrelevant. Like this stat with bad throws, are we supposed to believe David Carr is better than Peyton Manning? No way... Manning's just more likely to force things, because he knows he's good. Kubiak isn't going to put the entire game on Carr's shoulders. I like statistics but sometimes you gotta have common sense about this stuff.
Posts: 54,947

11-07-2006, 06:25 AM	#6
Rukdafaidas lifelong Chiefs survivor Join Date: Mar 2003 Casino cash: $4829900	This whole Green vs. Huard thing is just nuts. Huard has done FAR better than I would have ever thought he could possibly do. BUT, let's put this thing in perspective. If the season were over and we could only keep one of these guys, who would you pick? Regardless of what anyone says, Huard has definitely been on a leash. I compare what he's being asked to do to Plummer's role the last couple of years in Denver. They're running a ball control passing offense. I know GoChiefs has thrown up all kinds of stats comparing Green to Huard, using yards per catch, but that's very misleading. When LJ catches a 2 yard pass and takes it 70 yards, does that count as a 2 yard pass or 70? Yep, it counts as 70 and it doesn't take but a couple of those to throw the whole average thing out the window. The Chiefs gameplan is now very similar to Denver's, without the bootlegs of course. They're throwing short, short, short, short............then bomb (especially after a turnover). Do you not think that Green could complete that 2 yard pass? Green is one of the most accurate passers I've ever witnessed, especially in the 15 to 30 yard range. He could do everything that Huard is being asked to do, in his sleep. The real question we should be asking is not Huard or Green, BUT, should we keep the new Huard gameplan or the old Green gameplan. When Green got hurt, they threw the Chiefs' offensive playbook out the window and the new one seems to be working quite well. We now have Gonzo playing a more important role in the new offense, which I like.
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11-07-2006, 11:47 AM	#7
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4363447	What exactly is a "poor throw"? Whatever.
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11-07-2006, 11:55 AM	#9
noa Band Join Date: Sep 2005 Casino cash: $1585453	I wish I got paid to judge whether a QB's pass was poor or not. That's one hell of a job. __________________ Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes, well, he eats you.
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