Chiefs Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite? - Page 2

**Rain Man** · 11-13-2013, 12:54 PM

Maybe it's discussed in a thread somewhere, but I didn't see it and I like the limelight of having a thread with my name on it.

I figured the Broncos would be favored, but I would have expected 5 points or so. Not 8.5. They obviously know something about the officiating that's not public.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...read-favorites

The Denver Broncos will open Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs in Week 11 as an 8.5-point favorite, according to pregame.com.

It's at 8 and 9.5 in other places.

One big question that weighs into this is the health of Peyton Manning. Early signs are that he's going to be fine but an MRI is coming. That is the biggest thing remaining that could affect the line.

Last week I asked the guys over at Odds Shark what the line on the Chiefs-Broncos game would be. The official line wasn't up yet but our guy there polled two oddsmakers and they both said -6.5 for the Broncos. The difference between -6.5 and -8.5 is huge considering a lot of games end in a seven point difference. The Chargers lost to the Broncos by eight points last Sunday so KC would have to perform that well to have a shot at covering.

But we don't really care about covering. We care about the Chiefs winning. Their 9-0 record speaks for itself but oddsmakers clearly feel the Broncos are the better team here. Not that this should surprise anyone. We've known all along that folks think the Broncos are better. On Sunday night, we finally get to put this question to rest.

**Nzoner** · 11-13-2013, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

I am right.

They do know something.

You don't have to convince me,I've always believed the NFL is fixed when it comes to the spread.

**notorious** · 11-13-2013, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

I wonder how much, if any, affect DumBowe getting busted had on those numbers.

Probably zero.

The only position that can shift a line is the QB for the most part.

**notorious** · 11-13-2013, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nzoner

You don't have to convince me,I've always believed the NFL is fixed when it comes to the spread.

The best I have done is when I don't think and just bet against the masses.

It really does work (well, most of the time.)

KC_Connection · 11-13-2013, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thurman merman

Except for, ya know, records are the only things that matter. Therefore, the Chiefs have been the better team.

Except objectively judging whether a team is better than another is quite a bit more complex than looking at a team's overall record. Hence the reason Alabama is perceived to be better than Boise State every year in college football despite similar records.

**Nzoner** · 11-13-2013, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

The best I have done is when I don't think and just bet against the masses.

It really does work (well, most of the time.)

I agree and this game looks perfect for that as the national crowd has been hearing KC has played nobody yada yada yada all season long.I'm on two other non-chiefs football boards and very very few are even giving KC a chance to stay in the game.

KC_Connection · 11-13-2013, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

I wonder how much, if any, affect DumBowe getting busted had on those numbers.

None. He's playing still.

**Nzoner** · 11-13-2013, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

None. He's playing still.

Just hope the Denver catering group isn't serving brownies for dessert at the pre-game meal

Pasta Little Brioni · 11-13-2013, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Maybe it's a little high, but Denver has been the better team to this point (looking past strictly the records) and they have home advantage. It make sense.

"Team"...**** no. QB and illegal pick plays....yes

**ptlyon** · 11-13-2013, 01:27 PM

Wow if Peyton wasn't gimping around during the final part of the sd game, it'd probably be 45

a pp roach · 11-13-2013, 01:31 PM

not surprising. chiefs are 3-6 afterall.

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 01:40 PM

Vegas looks at all sorts of stuff like how does a team do on the road compared to home. I showed the numbers in another thread, but just look at the results for yourself. Sure, KC is 9-0 and traveling to 8-1... but, that doesn't automatically mean the PS is going to be 3.

Hell, they could have started with 5.5 and many would complain.

Again, I think few doubt the awesomeness of KC's defense... it's the offense that few believe in at this point and recent road games give validity to the concerns.

**fan4ever** · 11-13-2013, 01:41 PM

All I know is, if we're going to win this thing, we're going to need a lot more #14.

**DaneMcCloud** · 11-13-2013, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I'll be surprised if it's that close if Manning plays the whole game.

You and I are watching different teams this year

mr. tegu · 11-13-2013, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Vegas looks at all sorts of stuff like how does a team do on the road compared to home.

The Chiefs have won every road game by at least two scores.

I am seeing over 60% of the money going to the Chiefs. The line has moved accordingly to an 8 point spread.

Mile High Mania · 11-13-2013, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

The Chiefs have won every road game by at least two scores.

I am seeing over 60% of the money going to the Chiefs. The line has moved accordingly to an 8 point spread.

I'm merely suggesting that while they won those games by more than 2 scores, none of those teams were comparable to what Denver's offense can do. So, in those 4 road games ... the Chiefs scored 5 offensive TDs, 11 FGs and 5 D/ST TDs.

So, yeah if the D/ST scores a few times, it's a whole new outlook... KC's offense has been rather bland on the road. Alex Smith last threw a TD in a road game at Jacksonville, week 1.

View Poll Results: Before reading this, what point spread would you have guessed?
Virtuous Chiefs by 7+	8	5.88%
Virtuous Chiefs by 5 to 6.5	2	1.47%
Virtuous Chiefs by 3 to 4.5	13	9.56%
Virtuous Chiefs by 0.5 to 2.5	1	0.74%
Push	4	2.94%
Cheating Broncos by 0.5 to 2.5	1	0.74%
Cheating Broncos by 3 to 4.5	26	19.12%
Cheating Broncos by 5 to 6.5	29	21.32%
Cheating Broncos by 7+	49	36.03%
I don't deal with math and probabilities. I hire people for that.	3	2.21%
Voters: 136. You may not vote on this poll

11-13-2013, 12:54 PM
Rain Man NFL's #1 Ermines Fan Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $3138491 VARSITY	Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite? Maybe it's discussed in a thread somewhere, but I didn't see it and I like the limelight of having a thread with my name on it. I figured the Broncos would be favored, but I would have expected 5 points or so. Not 8.5. They obviously know something about the officiating that's not public. http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...read-favorites The Denver Broncos will open Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs in Week 11 as an 8.5-point favorite, according to pregame.com. It's at 8 and 9.5 in other places. One big question that weighs into this is the health of Peyton Manning. Early signs are that he's going to be fine but an MRI is coming. That is the biggest thing remaining that could affect the line. Last week I asked the guys over at Odds Shark what the line on the Chiefs-Broncos game would be. The official line wasn't up yet but our guy there polled two oddsmakers and they both said -6.5 for the Broncos. The difference between -6.5 and -8.5 is huge considering a lot of games end in a seven point difference. The Chargers lost to the Broncos by eight points last Sunday so KC would have to perform that well to have a shot at covering. But we don't really care about covering. We care about the Chiefs winning. Their 9-0 record speaks for itself but oddsmakers clearly feel the Broncos are the better team here. Not that this should surprise anyone. We've known all along that folks think the Broncos are better. On Sunday night, we finally get to put this question to rest.
Posts: 141,585

11-13-2013, 01:27 PM	#24
ptlyon Bono & Grbac wasn't enough Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Sioux City, IA Casino cash: $12923829	Wow if Peyton wasn't gimping around during the final part of the sd game, it'd probably be 45 __________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Advertise here: $19.99 a month
Posts: 33,785

11-13-2013, 01:31 PM	#25
a pp roach Veteran Join Date: Dec 2012 Casino cash: $10010545	not surprising. chiefs are 3-6 afterall.
Posts: 2,047

11-13-2013, 01:40 PM	#26
Mile High Mania #triggering Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Tejas Casino cash: $3517229	Vegas looks at all sorts of stuff like how does a team do on the road compared to home. I showed the numbers in another thread, but just look at the results for yourself. Sure, KC is 9-0 and traveling to 8-1... but, that doesn't automatically mean the PS is going to be 3. Hell, they could have started with 5.5 and many would complain. Again, I think few doubt the awesomeness of KC's defense... it's the offense that few believe in at this point and recent road games give validity to the concerns. __________________
Posts: 30,342

11-13-2013, 01:41 PM	#27
fan4ever Supporter Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Scottsdale, AZ Casino cash: $5764389	All I know is, if we're going to win this thing, we're going to need a lot more #14.
Posts: 9,336