PFT take on King Carl v Saban

[SBK]

CHIEFS, FINS NEED A FACE-SAVER With the Chiefs and cornerback Patrick Surtain in agreement on a long-term deal, the only obstacle to consummation is the fact that Surtain is still the property of the Dolphins. And the two teams have their heels dug in tighter than a six-year-old who's been asked to kiss Auntie Moustache. The Fins want a second-round pick and won't budge. The Chiefs will give up a four. And won't budge. A reasonable person might look at this situation and conclude that a third-rounder will get it done. But reasonableness goes out the window when marble-headed guys like the Nicktator and King Carl are at the bargaining table, even if the Chiefs had a third-rounder which they could trade (which they don't, due to the John Wellbourn trade). So, as one league insider 'splained to us, the two sides will need a way to create the impression that they got that they wanted (or more) without giving up anything of consequence. A superficial meeting in the middle, in order words, likely won't be enough. Instead, it will require some creativity, possibly introduced through an intermediary. Perhaps the deal happens with a fourth-round pick now and a conditional second-rounder in 2005, based on Surtain's playing time or picks. Then, it's a win-win -- if the Chiefs end up giving up more down the road, it's only because Surtain has exceeded expectations in K.C. Either way, stubbornness simply won't git 'er done. A second-round pick is too much for a guy whom the team has written out of its plans for the future. A fourth-round pick, however, is too low, given that the Pats gave up a third-round pick a month ago for Duane Starks. Even though the stakes are slightly different, the psychological realities at play here are no different than the stare-down in which Kennedy and Kruschev engaged when the Soviets started shipping certain oversized cigars into Cuba. Whether the issue is the location of a 28-year-old cornerback or the destruction of a multimillion-year-old planet, hard-headed men would rather do stupid than be perceived weak. So a resolution to this one is hardly a no-brainer, and it will require a solution that enables both Saban and Peterson to persuade themselves (and, more importantly, others) that they got the better end of the bargain.

[The Bad Guy]

Originally Posted by Frankie

We would offer a three if we had a tradeable one. And I bet they would take it. The Welbourn trade has cost us more than you think.

I know it cost us huge. What about the 2? Or is Carl Peterson planning on drafting someone he can cut in 2 years?

[Rain Man]

I don't understand the logic of saying that a 4th and a conditional 2nd next year is a compromise. They're only asking for a 2nd now, so why on earth would we pay more if he exceeds expectations.

I could see paying a conditional 2nd next year, but not on top of a fourth this year.

The logical answer is for us to give them a 2nd this year and get back a 3rd or 4th or whatever makes sense in points.

[2bikemike]

Originally Posted by Frankie

How about Surtain for Welbourn and Bartee?

Any move invlolving Bartee will cost us our 1st round pick just to get rid of him.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

A 4th is the best we can do?

I think that's reaching a tad bit.

Come on, Frank, you're smarter than that. I was saying that short of giving up that 2nd round pick, using 4ths is the best we can do with this year's draft because of the Welbourn trade. We can't offer anything higher in terms of negotiating.

[Baby Lee]

Perhaps the deal happens with a fourth-round pick now and a conditional second-rounder in 2005, based on Surtain's playing time or picks.

That's some d@mn powerful daylight savings!!

[kc rush]

Originally Posted by Frankie

We would offer a three if we had a tradeable one. And I bet they would take it. The Welbourn trade has cost us more than you think.

The thing that ticks me off about the Welbourne trade is that despite the fact that the player was injured and not able to do the job, and that it was apparent early on that the team was going nowhere, the coaching staff kept running him out there.

Because Welbourne played X number of snaps before the Chiefs finaly pulled him, the conditional third round pick kicked in (barely). That was just poor player management by the coaching staff and FO. We would have had that 3rd round pick otherwise.

[Frankie]

Originally Posted by Wilson8

I wrote this the other night but did not post it because of time.

It seems that the trade of Patrick Surtain to the Kansas City Chiefs would be good for both clubs. KC gets the cornerback they need and Miami gets lower cost players/draft picks and salary cap help.

Everyone that is following this process already knows this information. The problem that we have is that we have Carl Peterson that wants to maintain his image as a tough negotiator and a young coach/administrator in Nick Saban that can not afford to begin his image by letting another club force them into a less favorable trade. Both clubs need to come out looking like they have won in this situation.

When things get tough what group can be counted on to perform for the Kansas City Chiefs? KC should once again rely on the offensive line to help bail them out of this situation.

Miami’s offensive line is made up of Vernon Carey, Seth McKinney, Rex Hadnot, John St. Clair, Jeno James, Damion McIntosh, Wade Smith, Greg Jerman, and Taylor Whitley. It is no secret that the Dolphin’s offensive line could use help.

Kansas City does not need to give up one of their starters to make this deal happen. KC needs to keep that group together and probably could not afford the cap hit that would happen with such a trade. That leaves Kevin Sampson, Brett Williams, Chris Bober, and John Welbourn. Chris Bober received a sizeable bonus on a five year deal last year. Like KC’s starters, Bober’s cap hit would be prohibitive to a trade. Brett Williams has not played enough to warrant any trade value. The Chiefs seem to be high on Kevin Sampson, but he only played in one more game than Williams and also does not have a lot of trade value. That leaves John Welbourn as the top choice to be traded. John’s salary for 2005 is $1,200,000 for this year. His total cap value for 2005 is $1,206,400 which means that his cap hit to trade, would be very little. Currently John Welbourn is not projected to be a starter for Kansas City. If the Philadelphia Eagles were willing to trade John because he wanted to make more money, should the Chiefs be concerned about his attitude if they demote him to the bench?

Now why would Miami want John Welbourn? John could start for Miami. As proven in Kansas City, his best position is probably at guard. He has started in 66 games for two pretty good offensive lines. He can play other positions if they really need it. He is relatively young for an offensive lineman. He is only one year older than Brian Waters. He still has four years left on his contract at a pretty reasonable price, $1,200,000, $1,400,000, $1,700,000, and $2,000,000. If Kansas City combined John Welbourn with additional draft picks, it allows Miami to add to their offensive line plus obtain their much needed draft picks. This type of trade would allow both clubs to maintain face and strengthen their team.

The one remaining question for Kansas City is; what are Will Shield’s future intentions? If Will plans to retire this year, then Welbourn becomes much more valuable to KC. Hopefully Kansas City can talk with Mr. Shields and resolve this question.

I agree 1000%.

[Frankie]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

The logical answer is for us to give them a 2nd this year and get back a 3rd or 4th or whatever makes sense in points.

Another great idea.

[Frankie]

Originally Posted by 2bikemike

Any move invlolving Bartee will cost us our 1st round pick just to get rid of him.

Sad but true.

[Frankie]

Originally Posted by kc rush

The thing that ticks me off about the Welbourne trade is that despite the fact that the player was injured and not able to do the job, and that it was apparent early on that the team was going nowhere, the coaching staff kept running him out there.

Because Welbourne played X number of snaps before the Chiefs finaly pulled him, the conditional third round pick kicked in (barely). That was just poor player management by the coaching staff and FO. We would have had that 3rd round pick otherwise.

True

[PastorMikH]

If a 2nd is too high, and a fourth is too low, why couldn't we offer up a pair of second-day picks to up the ante? We have plenty of second day pics.

[Miami Mike]

Personally.....I cant believe that this deal has not been done already.

The Chiefs have a "super bowl caliber" offense. But its paired with what was a horrible defense.

Surtain and Sammy Knight accounted for half of the NUMBER 1 PASS DEFENSE last year.

Do you know what that does for you guys?

KC would quickly move into the same breath as Indy, Pittsburgh and New England in regards to favorites in the AFC.

And the only thing you need to do is send a second to Miami.

If I was a Chiefs fan I would be screaming from the rooftops to get this deal done.

Saban will not bargain. He has already publicly stated such.

And frankly....he shouldn't.

Surtain is probably worth a first and is certainly worth a middle of the pack second rounder.

A "2nd tier" cornerback went to the Saints last year for a second round pick.

Surtain is a stud, the Chiefs need him.

Miami only has 5 draft picks.

I cant believe this deal is not done.

[HolmeZz]

We pretty much feel that same way, Miami Mike. I'd say 90+% of us just want to fork over the #2 right this second.

[keg in kc]

If Surtain is a stud - and I think most agree that he is - then why did Miami not re-sign him? The answer to that question is why the Chiefs - and every other NFL franchise - have balked at the Dolphins' asking price. It's because of what he's asking for in his next contract.

And if you want to talk "2nd tier" cornerback trades, you can throw out McKenzie's name all you want, but, as the original article mentioned, Duane Starks went to the New England Patriots for one of the last picks of the third round barely a month ago.

There's no doubt that a lot of teams, including KC, would be thrilled to add someone of Surtain's calibre. But so far not a one has been even remotely interested in paying Saban's asking price. And I don't see any reason why that will, or should, change right now. Wait and negotiate. Eventually something will get done. Maybe we end up paying the asking price, maybe we don't. Hopefully it will fall somewhere in the middle and everybody walks away happy.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Phobia

Nice. Seems like a pretty good read on the situation.

yep ... pretty good take