Excellent & Detailed Article on PMII & the Current State of the Chiefs

[T-post Tom]

Football is the most beautiful sport there is, in part because of how complex it is. Every play contains dozens of small stories, and it’s impossible to follow them all during a broadcast viewing. So every week at The Athletic, I’ll break down the big finds I see on film from each game and some tidbits that might have been missed. And, of course, Patrick Mahomes.

One of the hottest trends in NFL analysis currently is the phrase “(fill in the blank) doesn’t/don’t matter.” Whether it’s running backs, offensive linemen, the running game itself, pass rushers as compared to coverage … people are fond of saying that certain things don’t affect the outcome of a game as much as others and therefore don’t matter. It’s hyperbole, but meant to make an overarching point (for example, saying that run defense doesn’t matter is an exaggerated way of saying it’s not as important as pass defense, but I digress).

On Sunday, the Chiefs decided to make a new thing not matter: elite quarterback play. Patrick Mahomes, back from a brief hiatus with a knee injury, played a phenomenal game and the Chiefs still couldn’t win. Perhaps this will be the beginning of a “quarterbacks don’t matter” movement. Of course, that’s unlikely. Sunday’s game against the Titans was more an affirmation of what people should already know: Football is a complicated game, and any one factor can’t necessarily lead to a win if enough other things go wrong. Even superb play from a signal-caller.

That said, if there’s anything that should make Chiefs fans breathe a little easier following a loss that played out like some sort of strange dark comedy film, it’s the play of Mahomes. He was magnificent in his return, looking as healthy as he has appeared since Week 1 of the season. He read the Titans’ defense well all game and created plays even when opportunities weren’t immediately present.



Mahomes played even better and more efficiently than the box score indicated, which is impressive given that he threw for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns. The reality is that drops (which we’ll discuss more below) played a major role in muting Mahomes’ stats. He lost a touchdown and several other crucial plays that would have extended drives and tacked on even more passing yards.

Mahomes’ in-depth numbers were very good in his first game back, as he picked up where he left off against Denver. Here’s a primer on the numbers I chart to go beyond the box score and analyze what really matters in quarterback play. Keep in mind that not all throws can be charted for depth of target and/or accuracy, so the numbers may look a tad wonky.



Mahomes had one of the highest numbers I’ve ever charted of “franchise throws” against Tennessee, repeatedly making throws from tough angles and finding open spaces in the Titans defense. He was also accurate throughout the game, especially after an initial drive in which he threw two potential picks (one of which was his fault, the other of which was the result of receiver Tyreek Hill being knocked off his route).

This game provided multiple examples of one of Mahomes’ best traits: the ability to throw with anticipation. Some people refer to it as “throwing receivers open.”



On this 3rd-and-6, Mahomes recognizes pre-snap that a blitz is likely coming. Once the ball is snapped, he’s aware that he doesn’t have much time and drifts back to buy his receivers an extra second to get open. He correctly reads that the Titans are dropping into a zone and knows that Hill’s crossing route will eventually bring him into an empty spot of grass. There’s not enough time to wait for Hill to get open with the rush closing in, though, so Mahomes throws the ball well ahead of Hill into the open zone.

The excellence of this throw becomes more apparent when it’s stopped when Mahomes is starting his throw.

Just saw that you showed this one! I didn't realize what a crazy throw this was. You cannot play zone against this man.

— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) November 13, 2019

Hill is nowhere near open when Mahomes makes his decision. Putting the ball in a place like this requires having an understanding of where the chess pieces on the field are going rather than reading where they currently are. This ability to see a step ahead is one reason Mahomes doesn’t throw nearly as many interceptions as people anticipated despite his aggressive nature. He realizes that the football field is a dynamic place and doesn’t wait for players to be in a spot before making decisions. That allows him to get the ball out quickly and prevents defenders from contesting the catch.

Mahomes’ made many anticipation throws Sunday, perhaps none prettier than this touchdown to Hill.



Here, Mahomes correctly identifies that the Titans are playing man and that the safety is in coverage underneath rather than helping deep. That means the left side of the field will be wide open. Mahomes lofts the ball to the end zone with the understanding that no one can run with Hill over that amount of space as long as the ball is thrown well in front of him. It’s a throw that looks easy but requires the ability to read the defense perfectly and play with anticipation.

Mahomes did miss a few throws Sunday, including a deep ball to Hill that would have been a sure touchdown. He also had a couple of missed shots throughout the day. It appeared that Cam Erving’s struggles at left tackle altered the Chiefs’ game plan somewhat over the course of the day.



There’s no need to belabor what has become fairly obvious, but Erving has struggled in spots backing up Eric Fisher. The problem is one of consistency and speed of his losses. It’s impossible to know prior to the snap whether Erving will dominate the rep or give up immediate pressure. That makes it risky for the Chiefs to call longer-developing routes and difficult for Mahomes to survey the field. After this disastrous rep that knocked right tackle Mitchell Schwartz out of the game temporarily, the Chiefs shifted to a more quick-strike attack.

The Chiefs are again at full strength in terms of their playmakers, and Mahomes looks as good as he ever has. But the full potential of the offense might still be a bit held back until regular starter Eric Fisher can return.

The defensive struggles

The Chiefs had been playing well defensively prior to facing the Titans, then they ended up losing a shootout to Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. It was a tough performance to watch, but if one were looking for a positive note, it would be that the defense wasn’t responsible for all the points given up Sunday — the Titans returned a fumble by running back Damien Williams for a touchdown — and that a large percentage of the Titans’ yards came on two plays.



However, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo made some mystifying personnel decisions Sunday, including using Jordan Lucas as his deep safety on multiple early snaps. Lucas is at his best in the intermediate portion of the field or close to the line of scrimmage. Here, cornerback Charvarius Ward appears to be giving up inside leverage while expecting help deep from Lucas. In the meantime, another crossing route is underneath Lucas. He must make a choice what route to defend, with both giving up separation.

Lucas doesn’t stay deep enough here as the last line of defense, and chooses to try and cut off the crossing route. While it’s impossible to know his assignment without knowing the play call, generally a single high safety’s job is to keep all routes in front of him and prioritizing help with deep posts before intermediate crossing routes. While Lucas was placed in a tough position, he makes the wrong choice. Had he stayed deep, Tannehill likely doesn’t even attempt to throw to the post, and the pass rush might have gotten to him. It’s a frustrating play because rookie safety Juan Thornhill hasn’t given up these types of throws, yet was not in position to help prevent it for reasons that haven’t been made clear.

The second big play the Chiefs gave up was equally ugly, and again contains another strange personnel choice.



A great deal was made about linebacker Reggie Ragland’s lack of snaps against the Titans, which makes sense considering the style of football they play. However, it should be noted that on the biggest run play of the game, Ragland was on the field and overran what should be his assignment. This provided Henry with a huge lane to cut back through. Chris Jones was on the edge on this snap as well, but was unable to squeeze the lane shut after being forced to stay home and protect the bootleg.

The personnel complaint I’d make here is that Joey Ivie is on the field rather than Mike Pennel (who was inactive in favor of Ivie). Both are defensive tackles, but Pennel weighs an additional 30 pounds and is much more stout at the point of attack than Ivie, who is more of a penetrating tackle than a run-stopper. Ivie gets washed aside so far that he can’t help slow down Henry during the cutback, and it’s hard to believe Pennel wouldn’t have made a difference here.

With Ivie getting moved, Ragland over-pursuing and Jones forced to stay home, the play comes down to Thornhill trying to tackle Henry, who is a big runner and has a head of steam. That’s a tough spot to be in, but Thornhill doesn’t even slow down the big back and the race to the end zone begins. In all, this play consisted of at least one personnel failure that’s on Spagnuolo (Ivie in rather than Pennel), but execution failures from Ragland and Thornhill are what made it such a big play.

These two plays accounted for 32.3 percent of Tennessee’s offensive output Sunday, but it was enough to keep them in the game when combined with a defensive touchdown. This allowed for the Titans to continue to run the ball and gave them a puncher’s chance in the fourth quarter, which they took advantage of after a series of mistakes (as noted in detail earlier this week) by the Chiefs.

The Chiefs came into the game with what appeared to be a rather strange plan at times and definitely didn’t use the personnel that would have benefited them the most early, but some of the failures late simply came down to execution.



Here, it appears Tyrann Mathieu guesses wrong as to where the run will go and laves a gap wide open to exploit. It doesn’t help that both Jones and Khalen Saunders don’t control the point of attack against individual blockers; though Saunders does get some push and Jones holds the edge just fine, neither is dominant. The Chiefs often appeared to be looking for the Titans to run to the strong side behind their tight ends, and Tennessee repeatedly took advantage of that assumption.

It should also be noted that despite the defense giving up a few huge plays, they made a crucial stop in the fourth quarter, giving the Chiefs the ball back on Tennessee’s 28-yard-line with 1:48 remaining in the game and the Chiefs leading by five points. That should have been enough to win the game, just like holding the Titans to a single touchdown in the first half should have been enough to put the game out of reach of a ground-and-pound strategy.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t. The offense couldn’t hold up its end of the bargain and went 3-and-out. Then special teams, on a particularly bad day for them, botched the field goal that should have put the Chiefs up eight points and led to a kickoff that would pin the Titans back in their territory. Instead, Tennessee got the ball on their own 39-yard-line down five points with newfound hope.

All of this is a long road to a short thought: The defense did struggle at times Sunday and allowed an inexcusable final go-ahead drive by Tennessee, but it did do enough in key moments for the game to be won and wasn’t quite the disaster it appeared on the surface.

Spagnuolo, the good and bad

The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator has done some good things this season, including dialing up pressure on opposing quarterbacks through various stunts and twists.



Here, Spagnuolo has both Tanoh Kpassagnon and Jones serve as distractions for the right side of the line by crashing outside. Emmanuel Ogbah loops inside and the Chiefs collect a quick sack. The timing on these movements has improved significantly since the season began, and should only continue to do so despite Ogbah’s unfortunate injury Sunday.

However, the defense has also made mistakes that are unspeakably brutal. Some of the odd personnel choices are laid out above, but once again on Sunday, the defense couldn’t even get all 11 men on the field on a crucial snap.

Holy crap they did it again.

I have no words. https://t.co/TqIpsPVo5i pic.twitter.com/zWWjSFHI0V

— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) November 13, 2019

Fans who attended the game live replied to this tweet indicating that it appeared Frank Clark was supposed to be the 11th defender here but got on the field late and would have been offsides, so he stayed on the sideline. This provided a wide open B gap for Henry to waltz through on the right side of the defense.

This is the second time the Chiefs have given up a touchdown with 10 men on the field. That sort of thing, along with missed assignments in run fits, must go away if Spagnuolo’s defense is going to find consistency. While the scheme has been solid, the details have been lacking. Spagnuolo’s habit of rotating defensive linemen could make it tough for players to always know when it’s their time, but as the coordinator, Spagnuolo must lock down those simple mistakes.

Wisniewski plays well

Stefan Wisniewski was forced into action due to a rash of injuries along the offensive line Sunday, and the veteran lineman held up extremely well. I charted every snap for pass-block and run-blocking wins/losses/neutral snaps, as well as pressures/hits/sacks allowed.



Wisniewski lost only two snaps Sunday and played a game that could be described as elite. He caught the eye of Pro Football Focus for his efforts.

After losing Martinas Rankin, the #Chiefs needed help from the bench and they got it.

Stefen Wisniewski
• 42 snaps, all at left guard
• 87.6 Pass Block grade, 2nd highest Pass Block grade of Week 10 among all offensive linemen (Colts LG Quenton Nelson - 89.6)#ChiefsKingdom

— PFF KC Chiefs (@PFF_Chiefs) November 12, 2019

Wisniewski doesn’t have the athleticism he used to possess, but he has a solid understanding of where he needs to be along the line in pass protection and wasn’t thrown off by blitzes or movement up front. He also showed excellent hand placement and a solid base in one-on-one matchups.



This is a fast throw, but Wisniewski’s effort is demonstrative of what he did throughout the day. He has a good initial punch and almost always lands it inside the pads of his opponent. Once there, he latches on and rushers aren’t able to disengage from him. His feet aren’t fast, but his technique is sound and he generally doesn’t allow defenders to rush by or move him backwards.

Wisniewski is active along the line, staying busy when he doesn’t have a man to block, but he doesn’t travel very far. He’s aggressive and understands where to move defenders in order to limit their pass rush, and he helps finish blocks.



Here, Wisniewski shows that strong initial punch and excellent hand placement. He’s able to shove the pass rusher into center Austin Reiter and rock him off balance. After that, he keeps the pressure on the block and helps Reiter throw the defender to the ground.

As a run blocker, Wisniewski shows some pop at the point of attack. He’s not particularly athletic, but he knows where he must be in space and how to engage defenders. He’s also very sound walling off would-be tacklers and altering his leverage according to where the play goes.



Note that Wisniewski doesn’t just lay a hit on the defender, but rotates around him to ensure that he can’t make a play on the running back as the play develops. That sort of subtlety helps account for the fact that Wisniewski doesn’t move with the speed of the rest of the Chiefs’ guards.

Wisniewski’s lateral movement appears somewhat limited, and that can be concerning at times.



Opposing teams are going to be looking at weaknesses to exploit in the veteran in future weeks if he continues to play, and that inability to always stay in front of quicker defenders could be problematic. But Wisniewski’s overall performance Sunday was impressive. He did a better job as a pass blocker than Andrew Wylie has all year, and if Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is able to return at right guard in the future, Andy Reid ought to consider leaving Wisniewski in for that purpose.

Drops ruined what could have been an even more explosive day

Both Watkins and Hill had crucial drops Sunday. It wasn’t simply the yardage lost that was so harmful, rather the timing of those drops.

Hill had an easy drop with 3:30 left in the fourth quarter that was one of the most impactful plays of the game despite looking relatively harmless.



While the drop cost the Chiefs only a few yards, the incomplete pass stopped the clock with 3:24 remaining. Had Hill held on to the ball, another 45 seconds would have run off the clock or the Titans would have needed to use their first timeout earlier than they did. Either of those scenarios changes the complexion of the game substantially. Hill dropped the next throw, too, though it was a tough catch in the end zone against good coverage. If either of those are made, it changes the outcome of the game.

Watkins had a pair of crucial drops as well. The first occurred in the second quarter and was the more egregious of the two.



This came on 3rd-and-10 as the Chiefs attempted to extend their 10-0 lead. Mahomes buys time by backpedaling and sees Watkins come open across the middle of the field. The throw is late, but delivered well before the defender can arrive. Watkins doesn’t seem to realize the ball is about to be thrown and looks away from Mahomes briefly to eye a defender, and because of that, he gets his hands up late on a throw that is a bit high. Despite less-than-ideal placement, this is a catch an NFL receiver should make.

Had Watkins fallen down the moment he caught the ball, the Chiefs would be facing 1st-and-10 on the 36-yard-line, within field-goal range and threatening to score. Instead, they were forced to punt, and due to a bad kick, the Titans got the ball on their own 27-yard-line. The very next play, Tannehill went deep for a big gain and the Titans were right back in it instead of being buried. Watkins had a second drop down the right sideline later in the game that would have put the Chiefs inside the red zone on a possession they had to settle for a field goal. While it was well-defended, the ball was perfectly placed and Watkins had time to control it before the cornerback brought his hands down.

While the defense and special teams were bigger problems as a whole, the offense will need to tighten up its self-inflicted wounds if it wants to reach its potential. There’s not a defense on earth that can contain them when they aren’t shooting themselves in the foot, but they’ve done enough to stop themselves in crucial moments. Like the other aspects of the game that led to a loss Sunday, this can be fixed. But also like the other aspects of the game that led to a loss, it will need to happen sooner rather than later if the Chiefs want to ensure they don’t waste what was expected to be a special season.

By Seth Keysor

Only thing missing from the article was this. Will never tire of watching this. (Hit play button & then link to YouTube. Thanks NFL.) Enjoy...




https://theathletic.com/1377169/2019....co/1AClspZyAO

[Hammock Parties]

if sammy helps us win a SB i don't care about any of this shit

[TEX]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

That’s what I meant. I already know he’s gonna ball.

Now I think he takes the next step and starts chewing ass when dudes aren’t playing up to standard.

That's the latest "Hot Take" from the hot take crowd.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

if sammy helps us win a SB i don't care about any of this shit

Sammy will be gone when the Chiefs make the SB. So **** him.

[T-post Tom]

Does anyone know how to stop embeded MP4s from autoplaying/autostarting?

[Spott]

Originally Posted by TEX

Sammy will be gone when the Chiefs make the SB. So **** him.

We will all be gone when the Chiefs make the SB.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Spott

We will all be gone when the Chiefs make the SB.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

if sammy helps us win a SB i don't care about any of this shit

I completely agree. But he left a few plays on the field Sunday. Disappointing at least.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by TEX

That's the latest "Hot Take" from the hot take crowd.

That’s... not a hot take?

[Cosmos]

Great read...Rep to OP.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by TEX

Sammy will be gone when the Chiefs make the SB. So **** him.

I guess you have already forgotten the AFFCG where he was far and away the best WR on the field.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I guess you have already forgotten the AFFCG where he was far and away the best WR on the field.

I didn't forget anything. Tell me, was that after he missed like 5 or 6 games and when the Patriots basically took Hill out of the game? Spare me the Watkins is awesome takes. Hes not. He has like one or two really solid games a year and then he's either hurt or we're wondering where he is on the field.

[MGRS13]

Big numbers doesn't win games. Not saying he is, certainly his sample size is much smaller, but he's looking more like Stafford then Brady. He's got to start winning these games late. Everyone knows the defense sucks and special teams are shaky at best. It's all on him, if he's one the best he can do it. Right now jury out.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by MGRS13

Big numbers doesn't win games. Not saying he is, certainly his sample size is much smaller, but he's looking more like Stafford then Brady. He's got to start winning these games late. Everyone knows the defense sucks and special teams are shaky at best. It's all on him, if he's one the best he can do it. Right now jury out.

****ing reerun!

[DaFace]

You could at least post a link to the original article if you are going to C&P paid content.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by TEX

I didn't forget anything. Tell me, was that after he missed like 5 or 6 games and when the Patriots basically took Hill out of the game? Spare me the Watkins is awesome takes. Hes not. He has like one or two really solid games a year and then he's either hurt or we're wondering where he is on the field.

You are really really good at wearing blinders.

Regardless Watkins is gone next year so quite your bitching.

But if he goes off in the AFCCG and we don't have an offsides keep us from the SB I don't want to hear from you celebrating about it.