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Old 11-02-2015, 05:00 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***



Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-17-2015 at 09:49 AM..
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Old 11-03-2015, 08:41 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
Why can't you always post good shit like this?

I mean it's valuable and actually insightful.

Thanks. Good post.
Steamer has Zobrist at 3.9 too, loves him. Colon at 1.0 full season. The difference between say 85 & 88 wins probably means enough to take the Central again. I am not getting my hopes up because that guy is going to have about 20 suitors.


Need to work on Salvy too.
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Old 11-03-2015, 08:49 PM   #62
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Gomes is here next year, isn't he?
I wouldn't think so, leave this spot open for some younger talent to come up and hold. Johnny will want to play somewhere next year more often than to get used 1 time per week.
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Old 11-03-2015, 08:50 PM   #63
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If Gordon would just post Torii Hunter type numbers the next 4 years that'd be a huge win to keep him. He takes such good care of himself I could see it. Torii Hunter posted positive WAR both offensively and defensively most years until he was 37. He had one poor defensive year in there but in total... he was a productive player.
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Old 11-03-2015, 08:51 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by ROYC75 View Post
I wouldn't think so, leave this spot for some younger talent to come up and hold. Johnny will want to play somewhere next year more often than to get used 1 time per week.
Bob Dole was suggesting that he would address the "2 corner OF" need if necessary.
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Old 11-03-2015, 08:52 PM   #65
Bob Dole Bob Dole is offline
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I would prefer we go "cheap" in right to be able to keep Gordo, Zobrist, Young and Madson. Orlando, Dyson, Eibner, Bubba --- let them compete for the job and may the best man win.
Which is why Bob Dole asked about Gomes...
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Old 11-03-2015, 08:57 PM   #66
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Bob Dole was suggesting that he would address the "2 corner OF" need if necessary.
IMHO, Johnny's defense is poor, his sole purpose is he feeds off LH pitching and has a positive, professional approach to the locker room. Dyson, Orlando and possibly Bonifacio, Starling and or Eibner ( spelling ) should be able to work the outfield backup positions.
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Old 11-03-2015, 08:59 PM   #67
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Which is why Bob Dole asked about Gomes...
It's called the Johnny bandwagon...... FTR, he gave a charged up speech today!
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Old 11-03-2015, 09:10 PM   #68
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Steamer has Zobrist at 3.9 too, loves him. Colon at 1.0 full season. The difference between say 85 & 88 wins probably means enough to take the Central again. I am not getting my hopes up because that guy is going to have about 20 suitors.


Need to work on Salvy too.
Can't work on salvy from what I've read
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Old 11-03-2015, 09:12 PM   #69
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It's called the Johnny bandwagon...... FTR, he gave a charged up speech today!
Looks like he is here next season on the cheap.
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Old 11-03-2015, 09:27 PM   #70
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I think those are very conservative value estimates for Gordon, whose great defense is more about positioning, making great reads, and controlling extra bases with his arm.

His offensive profile is one that should hold up well, too. Think KC will have to go 5/80-85 to make it happen ( and that's with some home town discount).
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Old 11-03-2015, 09:39 PM   #71
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I think those are very conservative value estimates for Gordon, whose great defense is more about positioning, making great reads, and controlling extra bases with his arm.

His offensive profile is one that should hold up well, too. Think KC will have to go 5/80-85 to make it happen ( and that's with some home town discount).
I could be wrong but from my perception, it would be a PR nightmare for the Glass family to lose Gordon over a few million per.
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Old 11-03-2015, 09:56 PM   #72
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The offseason needs IMO:
1. Resign Gordon. Pretty obvious IMO.
2. Which Position Do You Platoon? 2B or RF. Do you invest in Zobrist? Platoon Dyson/Orlando/Gomes. Dyson great OPS against righties, Gomes great OPS against lefties. Or do you go out and get a RF via free agency or trade? Play Colon or gasp Infante. Say you make a play for Puig hypothetically. Puig/Colon or Zobrist/Dyson-Orlando?
3. Starting Pitching - Need to make a run at 3rd/4th starter type. Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, Brett Anderson type.
4. Bullpen Depth - Might lose a couple of the backend pieces. Trust Dayton on that one.
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Old 11-03-2015, 10:00 PM   #73
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If Gordon would just post Torii Hunter type numbers the next 4 years that'd be a huge win to keep him. He takes such good care of himself I could see it. Torii Hunter posted positive WAR both offensively and defensively most years until he was 37. He had one poor defensive year in there but in total... he was a productive player.
He's also a massive outlier post-PEDs.
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Old 11-03-2015, 10:32 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
I think those are very conservative value estimates for Gordon, whose great defense is more about positioning, making great reads, and controlling extra bases with his arm.

His offensive profile is one that should hold up well, too. Think KC will have to go 5/80-85 to make it happen ( and that's with some home town discount).
Hamas brought it up in another thread and i'd never really correlated the two, but do you think Gordon takes a deal that much less than what Werth took?
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Old 11-03-2015, 10:34 PM   #75
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Hamas brought it up in another thread and i'd never really correlated the two, but do you think Gordon takes a deal that much less than what Werth took?
Lot of similar players to Gordon in that corner outfielder market. That will drive price down.
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