2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Bambi]

[alnorth]

I still don't know how DM got that deal done with Salvy Perez, thats highway robbery right there. If the upcoming players in the next few drafts were smart, they'd cross his agents off their list.

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by alnorth

I still don't know how DM got that deal done with Salvy Perez, thats highway robbery right there. If the upcoming players in the next few drafts were smart, they'd cross his agents off their list.

Don't worry about Sal. He'll get his money when Hudler takes him to the Yanks

[alnorth]

Oh, and if anyone feels like yelling at a sportswriter this morning, David Schoenfield from ESPN picked the Royals to finish #18, with a record of 79-83.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

I still don't know how DM got that deal done with Salvy Perez, thats highway robbery right there. If the upcoming players in the next few drafts were smart, they'd cross his agents off their list.

Dayton talked about this the other week when I saw him.

When they're working with a young Latin player who didn't sign for much initially, those guys are more willing to sign extensions early that pay them much more in the non-arb years but less down the road.

For Sal, he has made much more in 2012, 2013 and 2014 than he would have otherwise ($3.25 million compared to about a million in non-arb salary). That early security is worth a lot.

In COMPLETELY UNRELATED NEWS... Yordano Ventura originally signed for $28k...

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Oh, and if anyone feels like yelling at a sportswriter this morning, David Schoenfield from ESPN picked the Royals to finish #18, with a record of 79-83.

He's probably all about the ZIPS projections (which are awful, IMO).

Whatever formula ZIPS is using makes no sense to me. It's extremely conservative and particularly hard on young players.

I mean, it predicts Mike Trout - a guy who has hit .326 and .323 in the major leagues - to be a .302 hitter this year. Just silly.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He's probably all about the ZIPS projections (which are awful, IMO).

Whatever formula ZIPS is using makes no sense to me. It's extremely conservative and particularly hard on young players.

I mean, it predicts Mike Trout - a guy who has hit .326 and .323 in the major leagues - to be a .302 hitter this year. Just silly.

There are some legit reasons to think we might lose even without injuries (Guthrie's ability to get outs with RISP may have just been blind luck in 2013, who knows with Vargas, maybe none of our young hitters improve), but to me thats at the 10-15% point of the probability distribution. To actually predict 79 wins seems kinda bold. We did get rid of Getz and Frenchy, and our #5 spot won't feature Mendoza, come on, thats got to be worth whatever number of wins he may be dinging us for having the AL's best ERA last year.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Regarding Boras\Hosmer... Boras is unique in all of sports. I read somewhere (years ago on the ESPN boards I believe) that he and his clients treat their relationship as a partnership, not a client\rep like most agents. He is there to make MONEY, period... he factors things like, exposure, longevity, playing time etc... but for monetary considerations alone... not the sake of the player. Certain players have told him things such as "I'd be willing to go here because i like so-and-so" and Boras has been stalwart in reminding the player that this is business and will be treated as such... He will not negotiate special deals (aka Hometown discounts, etc).. He maximizes everything, short term and long term and he handles it ALL.. Most his players have little to no say until it's time to sign the dotted line.

Not sure how true most of that is.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

There are some legit reasons to think we might lose even without injuries (Guthrie's ability to get outs with RISP may end up just being luck in 2013, who knows with Vargas, maybe none of our young hitters improve), but to me thats at the 10-15% point of the probability distribution. To actually predict 79 wins seems kinda bold. We did get rid of Getz and Frenchy, and our #5 spot won't feature Mendoza, come on, thats got to be worth whatever number of wins he may be dinging us for having the AL's best ERA last year.

Projection systems have a few major flaws, IMO:

1) Consistent underrating of young players (have no ability to show progression for young guys)
2) Blindness to outliers (Guys like Guthrie or Chen, who have outpitched peripherals their entire careers - 5+ years - can't be separated from guys like Jeremy Hellickson, who don't have the background of outpitching peripherals.
3) Inability to track defensive effects. (Because defensive metrics are bad/unreliable, there is no good way to plug them into a projection tool. This hurts defensive clubs like the Royals in terms of projecting run prevention).

Fielding Independent Pitching is great on paper and tells you some about a pitcher as an individual. But in real life, there actually IS a defense behind that pitcher.

The 2013 Royals were not lucky.They were not fluky. Their record was right where their runs scored/runs allowed said it should have been.

[alnorth]

Just realized something with all his Hosmer free agency in 4 years talk. The new rules with QO's are going to make those situations where a team trades off a player they think they will lose in the last year of arbitration much less common.

That first round draft pick is going to be worth something, teams are probably going to just let their players play it out, extend the QO, and let them walk. If we were contemplating a Greinke type of deal today, you can't just look at the players you are trading for, now you mentally have to factor in that by making the trade you will not be getting that sandwich pick, and the other side probably won't be willing to boost their offer to make up for it.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Zeke

Regarding Boras\Hosmer... Boras is unique in all of sports. I read somewhere (years ago on the ESPN boards I believe) that he and his clients treat their relationship as a partnership, not a client\rep like most agents. He is there to make MONEY, period... he factors things like, exposure, longevity, playing time etc... but for monetary considerations alone... not the sake of the player. Certain players have told him things such as "I'd be willing to go here because i like so-and-so" and Boras has been stalwart in reminding the player that this is business and will be treated as such... He will not negotiate special deals (aka Hometown discounts, etc).. He maximizes everything, short term and long term and he handles it ALL.. Most his players have little to no say until it's time to sign the dotted line.

Not sure how true most of that is.

If I was a good player, I would want Boras. If I was an agent, I would try to be Boras. I completely 100% agree with his basic philosophy, which is often in conflict with my desire as a Royals fan to see our best players leave some money on the table and stay.

Boras' philosophy is pretty simple: it is impossible to know what your value is unless you test free agency. There is obviously a risk of being injured or declining, but if the stats predict that a decline is unlikely, then what you are giving up for security is often too big of a price to pay.

Even if you love your team and you want to stay, even if you want to give the team a "hometown discount", Boras would still advise you to test free agency. Maybe you were thinking you were worth 10AAV so you were thinking about offering to stay for an extension of 8.5AAV as a friendly hometown discount. If you go to free agency though, you might find out to your utter shock that the market has changed and you are now really worth 18AAV. You had no idea and maybe even Boras didn't know, but you don't find out until you test it, then you go back to the team you love, forget about that 8.5AAV nonsense and say "listen guys, I can get 18. Come on, you gotta help me out here, at least offer me 15 and we can talk".

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Just realized something with all his Hosmer free agency in 4 years talk. The new rules with QO's are going to make those situations where a team trades off a player they think they will lose in the last year of arbitration much less common.

That first round draft pick is going to be worth something, teams are probably going to just let their players play it out, extend the QO, and let them walk. If we were contemplating a Greinke type of deal today, you can't just look at the players you are trading for, now you mentally have to factor in that by making the trade you will not be getting that sandwich pick, and the other side probably won't be willing to boost their offer to make up for it.

Yes but at the same time, it's going to give the player more value on the short term. Not only are you getting the renta-player, but you're getting a pick at the end of it too. So he could be potentially worth "more" to a team than previously. So i'm not sure how much it's gonna sway it one way or another.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by alnorth

If I was a good player, I would want Boras. If I was an agent, I would try to be Boras. I completely 100% agree with his basic philosophy, which is often in conflict with my desire as a Royals fan to see our best players leave some money on the table and stay.

Boras' philosophy is pretty simple: it is impossible to know what your value is unless you test free agency. There is obviously a risk of being injured or declining, but if the stats predict that a decline is unlikely, then what you are giving up for security is often too big of a price to pay.

Even if you love your team and you want to stay, even if you want to give the team a "hometown discount", Boras would still advise you to test free agency. Maybe you were thinking you were worth 10AAV so you were thinking about offering to stay for an extension of 8.5AAV as a friendly hometown discount. If you go to free agency though, you might find out to your utter shock that the market has changed and you are now really worth 18AAV. You had no idea and maybe even Boras didn't know, but you don't find out until you test it, then you go back to the team you love, forget about that 8.5AAV nonsense and say "listen guys, I can get 18. Come on, you gotta help me out here, at least offer me 15 and we can talk".

Oh I agree wholeheartedly, the players are now treating the "game" as a straight up business as well. Before this was almost exclusively the Owners' rights.

Sucks for the fan at times, as you want to become attached to the great players with teams.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Zeke

Yes but at the same time, it's going to give the player more value on the short term. Not only are you getting the renta-player, but you're getting a pick at the end of it too. So he could be potentially worth "more" to a team than previously. So i'm not sure how much it's gonna sway it one way or another.

Only if you trade for the player before the start of the season. Half-season rentals don't bring back the comp pick.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Zeke

Yes but at the same time, it's going to give the player more value on the short term. Not only are you getting the renta-player, but you're getting a pick at the end of it too. So he could be potentially worth "more" to a team than previously. So i'm not sure how much it's gonna sway it one way or another.

True, but the trade would have to be made before the final season begins in that case. No more deadline deals and half-year rentals.