Poop Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com - Page 4

Buzzsaw · 11-04-2010, 01:32 PM

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Code:

AFC West
Team	Rec	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
KC	5-2	29.2%	11.4	19.1%	24.9%	23.2%	25.5%	0.5%	1.0%	92.7%	44.0%	1.5%	94.2%	0.4%
SD	3-5	17.0%	8.0	0.0%	0.6%	1.4%	2.9%	1.8%	7.3%	4.9%	0.7%	9.1%	14.0%	4.0%
OAK	4-4	-9.1%	7.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	1.6%	2.3%	0.2%	1.9%	4.2%	2.3%
DEN	2-6	-24.2%	4.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

Code:

 Conf App  Conf Win    SB Win
NYG	50.3%	30.6%	16.0%
KC	43.1%	23.6%	13.1%
NE	41.1%	22.1%	12.0%
PIT	36.6%	19.4%	10.4%
PHI	32.7%	18.8%	10.3%
ATL	46.0%	22.5%	9.6%
GB	30.7%	14.4%	6.5%
TEN	18.3%	8.8%	5.0%
IND	17.2%	7.8%	3.8%
NYJ	17.7%	8.0%	3.7%
NO	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%
BAL	14.2%	5.8%	2.6%
MIA	5.7%	2.4%	1.2%
TB	6.8%	2.0%	0.7%
SEA	6.6%	1.9%	0.6%
SD	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
HOU	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
SF	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
WAS	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%
CHI	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
STL	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
MIN	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
DET	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
OAK	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
ARI	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
JAC	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
CLE	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
CIN	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.

I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how reeruned majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after.

But what do I know? To these ****s I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight.

**Gadzooks** · 11-04-2010, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

I'm OK with making the playoffs, and possibly losing in the first round. Got a young team by-and-large. And if we do make the playoffs, I do not think it is written in stone that we couldn't sneak out a win or two. Gave the Colts a pretty fair run at Indy... when they had all of their weapons still playing.

Typical CP poster. I aplaud your realism.

You guys have a good young talented team with good coaching. I'm of the opinion that it'll be a year or 2 untill you're one of the big boys.

Sassy Squatch · 11-04-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

No, there's a difference. If a moron (you) thinks I'm a moron, it usually bodes well for me. I hope this logic doesn't escape you.

Apparently the logic of actually READING charts that state the Chiefs are the team 2nd most likely yo make the superbowl escapes you too. Enjoy trolololing now...

Sassy Squatch · 11-04-2010, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.

I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how reeruned majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after.

But what do I know? To these ****s I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight.

Its the way you come onto a Chiefs board and act like an asshole that makes people dislike you.

**Gadzooks** · 11-04-2010, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

Dude, you've been here longer than this week, and probably plan on sticking around longer than this week. That said, beware of playing with the Raider trolls on the board if you wish your stay to be even remotely pleasant.

Duly noted.

Coogs · 11-04-2010, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.

I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how reeruned majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after.

But what do I know? To these ****s I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight.

Actually, we have only had one good draft with Pioli. The other good draft, 2008, belongs to Herm.

**Buck** · 11-04-2010, 02:19 PM

One thing that is not getting much play in the media is the fact that Gates tore his plantar fascia, he is downplaying it, but it could keep him out a long time.

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

Typical CP poster. I aplaud your realism.

You guys have a good young talented team with good coaching. I'm of the opinion that it'll be a year or 2 untill you're one of the big boys.

I absolutely dread playing the Steelers and Ravens but outside of that, really, why couldn't we beat anyone else?...

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

I know, the chart was confusing to you but my post was directly in response to those numbers and things. I doubt the Chiefs or the Giants get to the Super Bowl but those number thingies show that, right now, they are the teams most likely to go to the big game. Would you like me to explain how some numbers are larger than others (kind of like comparing dick sizes in the jail bathroom) and what that might mean?

This forum seems infatuated w/ numbers. That's the funny thing though. You can twist and manipulate them to however you wish to make things seem glorious. I for one don't care about numbers. I actually watch teams play and I gauge my opinion off of that team based on MY observations. I know this forum of superior intellects won't agree but the Chiefs just aren't as good as those lil numbers say. Not even close.

Sassy Squatch · 11-04-2010, 02:20 PM

I believe that if the Chiefs make the Superbowl this year, it will be because of a QB change. We are not going ANYWHERE great with Matt Cassel at the helm. He's a damn good leader, but he's no Manning or Brady.

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buck

One thing that is not getting much play in the media is the fact that Gates tore his plantar fascia, he is downplaying it, but it could keep him out a long time.

THE ****ING WHOLE CHARGERS TEAM, SAVE Crybaby, is hurt.

THE WHOLE OFFENSE.

EVERY player, save the holdout WR who's due to show up in a few weeks...

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superturtle

Its the way you come onto a Chiefs board and act like an asshole that makes people dislike you.

Ahh but see I was not an asshole when I first got here. I only followed the path your people lead me through.

Personally though, I don't give a **** if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad.

Sassy Squatch · 11-04-2010, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

This forum seems infatuated w/ numbers. That's the funny thing though. You can twist and manipulate them to however you wish to make things seem glorious. I for one don't care about numbers. I actually watch teams play and I gauge my opinion off of that team based on MY observations. I know this forum of superior intellects won't agree but the Chiefs just aren't as good as those lil numbers say. Not even close.

The Raiders definitely aren't as good as their numbers suggest. You laid the ****smack on an ill-prepared Broncos team, who proceeded to then get beat by the 49ers, who we laid a ****smack on earlier in the year. If you watched either of the Colts or Texans games, we were pretty damn competitive with them.

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

Actually, we have only had one good draft with Pioli. The other good draft, 2008, belongs to Herm.

That is my mistake then. I thought Pioli masterminded that also. Regardless, the personnel is getting put in place and you should be ecstatic b/c of it. I could only wish Al would relinquish control even though something got into him this past draft..... well the first half at least when he started picking football players and not combine warriors.

TheGuardian · 11-04-2010, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

The Chargers aren't playing with the big boys right now either.

Now go get yer shinebox bitch.

11-04-2010, 01:32 PM
Buzzsaw Starter Join Date: May 2005 Casino cash: $10004900	Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC Compiled by Mike Harris The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Code: AFC West Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4% SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0% OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% The table's a little messed up, here's a screen Playoff Scenarios This report lists the odds of each team * Reaching the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Super Bowl Code: Conf App Conf Win SB Win NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0% KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1% NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0% PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4% PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3% ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6% GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5% TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0% IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8% NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7% NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8% BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2% TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Posts: 331

11-04-2010, 02:19 PM	#52
Buck Take a Chill Pill Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Carolina Casino cash: $8269900	One thing that is not getting much play in the media is the fact that Gates tore his plantar fascia, he is downplaying it, but it could keep him out a long time.
Posts: 44,563

11-04-2010, 02:20 PM	#55
Sassy Squatch The man you could post like. Join Date: Oct 2010 Casino cash: $2229655	I believe that if the Chiefs make the Superbowl this year, it will be because of a QB change. We are not going ANYWHERE great with Matt Cassel at the helm. He's a damn good leader, but he's no Manning or Brady.
Posts: 38,048