Charts: Who Are The Best Deep Passers In The NFL?

[listopencil]

Deep passes are the most exciting play in televised football—the viewing audience can't see the situation downfield until the ball (and the camera) make it down there, so the play always feels, in that tiny moment before we catch up, like a sure touchdown or interception. It's well known that not every QB in the league has the ability (or proclivity) to throw a good deep ball, but we want to know: Who are best deeper passers in the NFL?

Let's look at this from a few different angles. For starters, let's look at who's actually throwing it downfield. Pro Football Focus has tracked every single passing attempt at a target 20+ yards down the field going back to 2008. The chart at the top shows, for this year's QBs (min. 150 total attempts), who's thrown deep passes the most often over the six seasons, as a percentage of total attempts. There are some surprises in there—I didn't know Jake Locker chucked it so often—but for the most part this conforms with general assumptions about who have the "strong arms" in the league. Slingers like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are towards the top, while dink-and-dunkers like Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Alex Smith, and Matt Schaub are towards the bottom.

But who's throwing the most accurate deep throws? Pro Football Focus also tracks receiver drops, so instead of completion percentage—which knocks the QB for throws that should have been caught—we can use PFF's "accuracy" figure, which is a measurement of how many throws were on target (completions + drops over attempts):




Well that might be why I hadn't heard too much about Jake Locker—while he ranks first in the league in deep pass attempt rate, just 35.6 percent of his deep looks are on target, which puts him at 26th in the league. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick have been accurate on over 50 percent of their deep throws so far in their careers, which is just absurd, joining Drew Brees at the very top (with Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers close behind). Mike Glennon and Matt Schaub are notable in that they attempt very few deep passes, but when they do they've been very accurate. Finally, it's interesting to see that while Eli Manning has seen a lot of success with the deep ball, Joe Flacco has actually been pretty terrible.

Accuracy isn't a perfectly fair measure though; a 25-yard first down is great, but it's not as good as a 50-yard touchdown, even if that throw is harder to hit. Here's a chart of yards per attempt by QB on 20+ yard targets, still from 2008 through present:



Drew Brees takes over the top spot, thanks in no small part to the absurd downfield dominance of Jimmy Graham. Joe Flacco joins a very sad group of passers who are at least 10% below the league average, although Tom Brady, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford aren't far behind. The Jets face the Ravens this weekend in a critical game for the AFC playoff picture, and while a very successful deep passer will be taking the field, it probably isn't the QB you'd expect it to be.

Data via Pro Football Focus


http://regressing.deadspin.com/chart...nfl-1469917039

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

I'm confused. Does Alex Smith Suck or not ????????????

[listopencil]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

I'm confused. Does Alex Smith Suck or not ????????????

I'd say he does not suck, but he's not playing to his maximum ability in the current KC Offense.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by listopencil

I'd say he does not suck, but he's not playing to his maximum ability in the current KC Offense.

I'm leaning more toward the "He Sucks". Harbaugh didn't bench him due to his not playing to his max ability.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

I'm confused. Does Alex Smith Suck or not ????????????

Johnny football got bent over today and squealed like a hog the entire time.

[TribalElder]

[AussieChiefsFan]

There a couple ways those graphs could be interpreted.

Either, Ales Smith is a good deep passer, but doesn't throw it deep enough.

OR

Alex Smith usually throws deep on plays where his receiver is wide open.

Apart from a few plays, such as the first throw to Avery last week, I'd lean towards the latter.

[listopencil]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

I'm leaning more toward the "He Sucks". Harbaugh didn't bench him due to his not playing to his max ability.

From what I saw the 9ers had a really solid team all around and Smith was decent. I think Kap was viewed as more of a playmaker with a higher ceiling.

[listopencil]

Originally Posted by AussieChiefsFan

There a couple ways those graphs could be interpreted.

Either, Ales Smith is a good deep passer, but doesn't throw it deep enough.

OR

Alex Smith usually throws deep on plays where his receiver is wide open.

Apart from a few plays, such as the first throw to Avery last week, I'd lean towards the latter.

Hard to say. He did look overly cautious when I saw him play last. Not as bad as Tebow, but risk averse.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

Johnny football got bent over today and squealed like a hog the entire time.

Boy ! He sure did ! Was the worst game he performed in his college career. He was overthrowing his recievers and when he didn,t they dropped every damn pass. Was very dissapointing. He will be a great NFL star.

[Mr. Laz]

very hard to tell what these stats mean

WR's and Scheme change it all

[beach tribe]

Im hoping Smith pulls a Princess Bride.

I am not right handed.

[listopencil]

Originally Posted by Mr. Laz

very hard to tell what these stats mean

WR's and Scheme change it all

It is kind of weird. It's just a comparison of how often, how accurately and how far these QB's throw the deep ball. When you see a QB that is all over the place or has one outlier stat you can take a guess.