Gretz: Is Thiggy The Future?

[Tribal Warfare]

Is Thiggy The Future?
December 19, 2008 - Bob Gretz |

Will the Chiefs get Thiggy With It come the 2009 season?

Or are we seeing the last starts of Tyler Thigpen’s brief career as the No. 1 man in Kansas City?

That’s just one of the many questions awaiting the team’s new general manager when he comes on board. Over and above whether or not the Chiefs should use their high draft status to take a quarterback early in the ‘09 NFL Draft is this question: does Thigpen have the stuff to be a productive and winning quarterback in this league?

Right now, the results are mixed. There’s no question that Thigpen has made remarkable progress this season. There’s also no question he’s shown the ability to do many of the things required of a competent and productive starting quarterback.

His problem is that his team has not been successful. It’s unfortunate that these kind of stats land only on the plate of the quarterback, but that’s a fact of NFL life. Thigpen makes his 10th NFL start on Sunday against Miami. The Chiefs are 1-8 in the previous nine games. Obviously, that’s not good.

It’s also not good how the Chiefs have gotten to that 1-8 record with Thigpen at the helm. They’ve had strong first half performances and poor second half production, especially the third quarter. There are reasons for the third quarter blues and you can read about them right here in a piece I wrote for kcchiefs.com.

But there’s another factor in the Chiefs inability to close the deal in these games, and that’s Thigpen.

Track his numbers through each quarter this season and it’s a steady spiral downward in production and efficiency. Before we go further, here are the important numbers.

Quarter	Passer Rating	Comp. %	TDs	INTs	Avg. Yrds/ Attempt
First	108.5	65.7	4	0	7.63
Second	76.7	54	7	5	6.50
Third	70.9	55.1	1	1	5.76
Fourth	62.8	51	3	3	4.97

In the first quarter, Thigpen’s passer rating of 108.5 ranks as the third best passer in the league, behind only Miami’s Chad Pennington (124.5) and Kyle Orton of Chicago (114.2).

But in the fourth quarter, Thigpen’s rating falls all the way to 62.8, or more than 45 points. That ranks 28th in the league, well behind the NFL leader, Dallas’ Tony Romo who has a 119.8 passer rating in the final period.

In the second quarter, Thigpen is 30th in the passer rating at 76.7 and in the third period he’s 26th with his 70.9 rating.

The passer rating is a reflection of all the key statistics for a quarterback. Look at individual areas and the pattern with Thigpen is still there: fast starts, poor finishes.

Now, that’s not something that would seem unexpected for a young quarterback making his first nine NFL starts. That’s especially true when you factor in how Thigpen came to have the starting job – with the top two quarterbacks losing their seasons to injuries – and the change in philosophy that has the Chiefs coaching staff making up this offense as they go along.

But compare Thigpen’s passer ratings for each quarter to other quarterbacks also getting their first NFL starts in ‘08 and it’s not a pretty picture. Here are the numbers
Quarter

Cassel

NE


Flacco

BAL


Rodgers

GBAY


Russell

OAK


Ryan

ATL


Thigpen

KC
First

91.7


67.4


91.4


79.1


103.4


108.5
Second

92.5


70.5


106.0


56.8


83.0


76.7
Third

89.8


82.1


86.5


72.3


79.4


70.9
Fourth

73.5


92.2


81.6


78.4


92.3


62.8

None of those inexperienced starters could match Thigpen’s first-quarter play. All had four quarters that are better than Thigpen’s play in the fourth quarter.

Look at the fourth quarter ratings for the two rookies: Flacco and Ryan. Both are a full 30 points better than Thigpen. Here are all the important numbers in the fourth quarter for all three quarterbacks:
Players

Passer

Rating


Comp

%




TDs




INTs


Avg. Yds/

Att.
Flacco

92.2


65.8


4


3


8.20
Ryan

92.3


60.0


4


1


7.33
Thigpen

62.8


51


3


3


4.97

There’s no question that Flacco and Ryan play for better football teams than Thigpen does. Both Baltimore and Atlanta remain in the hunt for wildcard spots in the playoffs.

But are those teams there because of their quarterbacks, or have the quarterbacks benefitted from being on those teams?

That leads us to similar questions that will have to be answered about Thigpen. Is the downward spiral of his production from start to the finish of the game evidence of the lack of personnel around him? Does it come from his lack of experience? Or, is Thigpen not able to produce as the game goes along because he does not have skills required of a winning NFL quarterback.

Those questions make these final two games of the ‘08 season very important for Thigpen. He can reverse the trend and change the template that has developed in the last two months by producing in the second half of these games.

Flacco and Ryan may get the chance to prove themselves in the playoffs in January.

These next two games are Tyler Thigpen’s playoffs.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

is Thigpen not able to produce as the game goes along because he does not have skills required of a winning NFL quarterback.

That

[BigMeatballDave]

Great out of the gate, not much for stamina...

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

There’s no question that Thigpen has made remarkable progress this season.

I question this. We saw one terrible QB performance in the Atlanta game using a traditional pro set.

Out of the spread, he's done much better. But I don't see steady progression. He was surprisingly good in his first game out of the spread and has looked about the same since.

Did Thigpen magically get better between Atlanta and the latter games or was he basically that QB all along and just had a bad game in a set in which he was uncomfortable?

[CoMoChief]

People here don't understand that it takes more than just one season to develope a QB

Croyle didn't work out so that set us back about a season if not more, and people here are antsy in their pantsy and want something now because they're not used to having a young QB and really it should be Croyles 3rd yr under center if all went to plan. Well it didn't and it backfired horribly and now were almost back to where we were last season except Thigpen actually showed some promise while playing, unlike Croyle, whos number of good passes can be counted on one hand.

He's gonna have ups and downs. But he's been the best QB so far since Green's been under center. He's done particularly well compared to most young QBs starting their first season.

Hell Eli sucked until just this last season, and to be honest isn't that great still IMO. His name gives him the recognition but really hes nothing more than a huge pussy. That team feeds off its defense and running game, something that Herm would kill for.

Give Thigpen a training camp and time to work with all WR's, give him a better Oline and another skilled positional weapon (WR). He can only get better. People think he's plateau'ing out are ****in morons. Christ he hasn't even played a full season under center yet and he's doing good for what he has to work with (horrid rt side Oline, poor running game). It takes time people.

****in christ.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

People here don't understand that it takes more than just one season to develope a QB

Croyle didn't work out so that set us back about a season if not more, and people here are antsy in their pantsy and want something now because they're not used to having a young QB.

He's gonna have ups and downs. But he's been the best QB so far since Green's been under center. He's done particularly well compared to most young QBs starting their first season.

Hell Eli sucked until just this last season, and to be honest isn't that great still IMO. That team feeds off its defense and running game, something that Herm would kill for.

Give Thigpen a training camp and time to work with all WR's, give him a better Oline and another skilled positional weapon (WR). He can only get better. People think he's plateau'ing out are ****in morons. Christ he hasn't even played a full season under center yet and he's doing good for what he has to work with (horrid rt side Oline, poor running game). It takes time people.

****in christ.

There is a difference between saying he's plateaued out on one hand and that he hasn't improved that much this season on the other.

My position is that he might develop into a franchise QB, but that he probably won't. For one thing he doesn't fit any of the established patterns of QB development:

1) A guy that came out of nowhere, had IT from day one and lead a team to a SB (Brady, Warner).

2) A guy that has a raw something special from day one (almost always a high round draft choice) that takes a few years to develop into a true franchise QB. (Elway, Favre, the Mannings).

3) A raw guy that sits on the bench for a long time and slowly matures into a starter (Romo, Trent Green).

4) A star guy who does pretty darn good from day one (Marino, Roethlisberger)

He would be blazing the trail of being guy without phenominal physical tools, leadership skills, or knowledge of the position who comes out of no where, is thrust into the starter position before he's fully ready, and would survive all the pressures of being the starter while having these limitations, to develop into one of the league's best. I don't know of anyone who has taken that arc.

[Mr. Laz]

i agree with como


(someone shoot me)



FFS Thigpen hasn't even had a REAL training camp yet

[Mecca]

If you took Thigpen and put him back under center he'd probably look terrible would that then mean he's made no progress? Flipping up your offense to a college gimmick to make your QB look ok does not entail franchise guy.

[kcxiv]

Ryan and Rodgers were always the starters there. They were with the first team througout. Flacco and Cassel ran with the 2's and still got alot more then what Thigpen has.

He still has a way to go, but i want to see how he can do with a half decent oline. I dont know if we can judge him as the future yet. I want to see how he would from under center, but our right side of the Oline doesnt allow any QB to be successful as they suck that bad.


Anyways, whatever happens, i hope its the right choice.

[Chief77]

I wish we could see more plays in the traditional behind center set up. If Thiggy has progressed any, he shoud be able to play better now than he did in Atlanta behind center.

[ChiefsCountry]

More than likely he is not the future of this team.

[TinyEvel]

Chiefs have scored an average of 27.6 points since Thiggy took over.

That's practically Arena ball!

And a HUGE difference from our first 6 games, where we scored an average of 12.5

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by TinyEvel

Chiefs have scored an average of 27.6 points since Thiggy took over.

That's practically Arena ball!

And a HUGE difference from our first 6 games, where we scored an average of 12.5

it's all a worthless gimmick that won't last /Mecca

[penguinz]

We will acquire a potential QBotF in the off season.

[Ebolapox]

I'm not against giving him a shot next season--but I'd REALLY like to somehow get a certain QB from georgia, letting him sit on the bench, and then turning thiggy into what he prolly really is, a good backup.