GBN mock 1/25/09

[Mr. Laz]

2009 DRAFT PROJECTION

January 25, 2009

* Indicates underclassman

#	Team	Player	POS	School
1	Detroit	Matthew Stafford	QB	Georgia
2	St. Louis	Andre Smith	OT	Alabama
3	Kansas City	Aaron Curry	LB	Wake Forest
4	Seattle	Michael Crabtree	WR	Texas Tech
5	Cleveland	Aaron Maybin	DE/LB	Penn State
6	Cincinnati	Eugene Monroe	OT	Virginia
7	Oakland	Jason Smith	OT	Baylor
8	Jacksonville	Michael Oher	OT	Mississippi
9	Green Bay	B.J. Raji	DT	Boston College
10	San Francisco	Mark Sanchez	QB	Southern California
11	Buffalo	Everette Brown	DE	Florida State
12	Denver	Chris Wells	RB	Ohio State
13	Washington	Brian Orakpo	DE	Texas
14	New Orleans	Malcolm Jenkins	CB	Ohio State
15	Houston	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Missouri
16	San Diego	Rey Maualuga	LB	Southern California
17	New York Jets	Alphonso Smith	CB	Wake Forest
18	Chicago	D.J. Moore	CB	Vanderbilt
19	Tampa Bay	Percy Harvin	WR	Florida
20	Detroit (from Dallas)	James Laurinaitis	LB	Ohio State
21	Philadelphia	Knowshon Moreno	RB	Georgia
22	Minnesota	Vontae Davis	CB	Illinois
23	New England	Brian Cushing	LB	Southern California
24	Atlanta	Peria Jerry	DT	Mississippi
25	Miami	Michael Johnson	DE	Georgia Tech
26	Baltimore	Clint Sintim	LB	Virginia
27	Indianapolis	Sen'Derrick Marks	DT	Auburn
28	Philadelphia (from Carolina)	Eben Britton	OT	Arizona
29	New York Giants	Hakeem Nicks	WR	North Carolina
30	Tennessee	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Oklahoma State
31	Arizona	LeSean McCoy	RB	Pittsburgh
32	Pittsburgh	Duke Robinson	OG	Oklahoma

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[BigChiefFan]

I can't see us making an OLBer our top pick this year.

[The Bad Guy]

The Chiefs can fix some of the LB problems in free agency.

I'd rather take Crabtree than Curry.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Here's a good write-up on why Aaron Curry will NOT go in the Top 3:

http://www.walterfootball.com/nfldraftpicks.php

I've received a ton of e-mails from people asking me why I didn't consider Aaron Curry to the Rams or Chiefs in my 2009 NFL Mock Draft, and why I believe Mark Sanchez is a good bet to be chosen in the top three.

Rather than slap all of those e-mails together into one NFL Draft Mailbag, I thought I'd create a separate page outlining the history of the top three selections in the NFL Draft.

The following chart details which positions were taken with the top three selections since the 1998 NFL Draft:



As you can see, all the picks were either quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, offensive tackles or defensive ends.

There were exceptions that I bolded. In 2001, the inept Cleveland Browns took defensive tackle Gerard Warren No. 3 overall. He was a major bust. The year before, genius drafter Daniel Snyder selected LaVar Arrington second overall. Arrington had injury and attitude problems, and his career was consequently cut very short.

Going into more detail, here are how many of each position were taken in the first three picks since 1998:



So, what does all of this mean? Unless a team is convinced a certain linebacker will be the next Ray Lewis, and Daniel Snyder isn't involved, you can forget about one going in the top three picks.

Conversely, if there's a quarterback on the fringe of top-five consideration, there's a good chance he'll be chosen in the top three, assuming one of those teams could use an upgrade at the position.

Like Arrington and Warren, there are exceptions to the rule. Some quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn bottomed out completely.

Of course, those exceptions are the things that cause us to gasp in amazement and then rant about how dumb some of these NFL general managers are. And that's just what makes the NFL Draft so fun.

[The Franchise]

Why do you people keep pushing Sanchez on the 49ers? They already have 3 QBs on their team that could start for them. I have a feeling that Singletary is going to see what he has at QB and draft defense.


And I agree with 99% of the article above. Expect Brady Quinn didn't bottom out completely. He fell because Miami let him fall...and everyone after that didn't need a QB. Cleveland saw the opportunity to trade back up and grab him....and they did. I wonder how differently our team would be right now if we had taken Quinn instead of Bowe that year.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by pestilenceaf23

And I agree with 99% of the article above. Expect Brady Quinn didn't bottom out completely. He fell because Miami let him fall...and everyone after that didn't need a QB. Cleveland saw the opportunity to trade back up and grab him....and they did. I wonder how differently our team would be right now if we had taken Quinn instead of Bowe that year.

Quinn would have been in IR sooner than he was in Cleveland and the Chiefs wouldn't have a number one receiver.

[Mr. Laz]

only problem is that many people consider Curry a DE/LB guy

which means if the team thinks he can line up and sack the QB as a RushBacker then all those historical facts and figures are worthless.

[Chiefnj2]

If you are a strict best available player theorist then you should be happy with Curry.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

If you are a strict best available player theorist then you should be happy with Curry.

That's far too high for a linebacker, unless he's Derrick Thomas, Lawrence Taylor or Ray Lewis.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

LaVar Arrington was a rush backer. It's not like he was a Cover Backer. Same with Derrick Thomas.

The last true cover back to be taken that high that I can remember was ****ing Aundray Bruce...how'd that turn out?

And Aaron Curry is not a DE/OLB by any stretch of the imagination.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

LaVar Arrington was a rush backer. It's not like he was a Cover Backer. Same with Derrick Thomas.

The last true cover back to be taken that high that I can remember was ****ing Aundray Bruce...how'd that turn out?

And Aaron Curry is not a DE/OLB by any stretch of the imagination.

I want to say that Bruce was a pass rusher at Auburn.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Here's a good write-up on why Aaron Curry will NOT go in the Top 3:

http://www.walterfootball.com/nfldraftpicks.php

I've received a ton of e-mails from people asking me why I didn't consider Aaron Curry to the Rams or Chiefs in my 2009 NFL Mock Draft, and why I believe Mark Sanchez is a good bet to be chosen in the top three.

Rather than slap all of those e-mails together into one NFL Draft Mailbag, I thought I'd create a separate page outlining the history of the top three selections in the NFL Draft.

The following chart details which positions were taken with the top three selections since the 1998 NFL Draft:



As you can see, all the picks were either quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, offensive tackles or defensive ends.

There were exceptions that I bolded. In 2001, the inept Cleveland Browns took defensive tackle Gerard Warren No. 3 overall. He was a major bust. The year before, genius drafter Daniel Snyder selected LaVar Arrington second overall. Arrington had injury and attitude problems, and his career was consequently cut very short.

Going into more detail, here are how many of each position were taken in the first three picks since 1998:



So, what does all of this mean? Unless a team is convinced a certain linebacker will be the next Ray Lewis, and Daniel Snyder isn't involved, you can forget about one going in the top three picks.

Conversely, if there's a quarterback on the fringe of top-five consideration, there's a good chance he'll be chosen in the top three, assuming one of those teams could use an upgrade at the position.

Like Arrington and Warren, there are exceptions to the rule. Some quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn bottomed out completely.

Of course, those exceptions are the things that cause us to gasp in amazement and then rant about how dumb some of these NFL general managers are. And that's just what makes the NFL Draft so fun.

I compiled a similar list in December and emailed it to a local radio show in an attempt to put a stop to the RT/LB at #3 talk. Of course it didn't work.

However, going by that list of positions taken in the top 3 over the last decade, it seems that at this early point before the draft there are no RBs, WRs, 4-3 DEs, and DTs worth the #3 pick and I don't believe we need to draft OT in the 1st. I believe our options are QB or trade back, and yes I understand how rare that happens.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Laz

only problem is that many people consider Curry a DE/LB guy

which means if the team thinks he can line up and sack the QB as a RushBacker then all those historical facts and figures are worthless.

If you think Curry is a rush backer I'm going to question if you've ever seen him play...

[bowener]

Well, with that being said, we now know we need to set up a chart to show how unlikely it is to trade back from the top 3 position to nip that talk in the bud before this thread is over run by the 'trade-down' crowd.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by bowener

Well, with that being said, we now know we need to set up a chart to show how unlikely it is to trade back from the top 3 position to nip that talk in the bud before this thread is over run by the 'trade-down' crowd.

Not sure about top 3, but I believe the last time a team traded into the top 5 was 1999 when NO moved up to take Ricky Williams.