Royals *** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 *** - Page 49

duncan_idaho · 04-03-2016, 09:48 AM

And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

tk13 · 05-05-2016, 11:22 AM

Cuthbert has played a little bit at 2B but I'm not sure you could put him there full time. I know they've dabbled with him in the OF but I don't believe he's ever played in a game out there. But I'm a big fan, I thought he looked ready last year. If he could play RF it would solve so many problems, but you don't want to throw a guy into the fire in the K's outfield.
Posted via Mobile Device

Prison Bitch · 05-05-2016, 12:01 PM

This might be the last of Kendrys, 115/117 players in wRC+. Perhaps he is just starting slow, but he's 33 or whatever and maybe last year was a blip. If he's still hitting 210 at the ASB with no power we won't be within 4 games

Great Expectations · 05-05-2016, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

This might be the last of Kendrys, 115/117 players in wRC+. Perhaps he is just starting slow, but he's 33 or whatever and maybe last year was a blip. If he's still hitting 210 at the ASB with no power we won't be within 4 games

What would his WAR be in that situation? What was his WAR last year when we won 95 games?

Prison Bitch · 05-05-2016, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

What would his WAR be in that situation? What was his WAR last year when we won 95 games?

2.1 last year
-0.6 this year (a pace for -3.6)

Kendrys won't end up -3.6 but put it this way: since 2000 there are 2,627 player seasons among regulars. The worst is -2.9 (Neifi Perez 2002).

**RockChalk** · 05-05-2016, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Brevity is the soul of wit.

duncan_idaho · 05-05-2016, 04:14 PM

Cuthbert could play 2B but it would look an awful lot like Daniel Murphy playing 2B.

He just doesn't have the quickness or foot speed to play 2B, which is too bad, because his bat would be a big plus at that spot.

I think he's limited to a corner or DH spot for KC. Probably has to wait another year before he has a real fit in KC (I'm assuming they won't sign another full-time DH and could carry Cuthbert as a reserve 1b/3b/DH type.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

duncan_idaho · 05-05-2016, 04:16 PM

Oh, and I missed that O'Hearn had already been promoted to Northwest Arkansas... And that he hit a bomb in his first game there. Promising. He may force his way into the DH picture, too.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

big nasty kcnut · 05-05-2016, 04:32 PM

Is kenmo hurt?

KChiefs1 · 05-05-2016, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by big nasty kcnut

Is kenmo hurt?

Old

Great Expectations · 05-05-2016, 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

2.1 last year
-0.6 this year (a pace for -3.6)

Kendrys won't end up -3.6 but put it this way: since 2000 there are 2,627 player seasons among regulars. The worst is -2.9 (Neifi Perez 2002).

So according to War his poor performance is worth one less win than what he would've produced last year assuming that he was around 0.4 WAR at this time last year.

I think WAR is a good way to compare players, but I don't th I the actual wins above replacement is correct.

Prison Bitch · 05-05-2016, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

So according to War his poor performance is worth one less win than what he would've produced last year assuming that he was around 0.4 WAR at this time last year.

I think WAR is a good way to compare players, but I don't th I the actual wins above replacement is correct.

Like all stats, it is a marker that has good value but not perfect value. Generally speaking, WAR correlates well with wins. But as you know it's been weak for us. Our RISP has been crazy good. Kendrys last year had so many 2-out RBI he was more valuable than his WAR data. This year, we are really struggling in that metric

**SAUTO** · 05-05-2016, 07:10 PM

We are really missing zobrist

Prison Bitch · 05-05-2016, 07:39 PM

Missing old Cain, Gordon and Kendrys more

They should heat up. Cain looks better this week

suzzer99 · 05-05-2016, 08:08 PM

Kendrys had had some of the worst luck with atem balls and near homers that I've seen.

Why Not? · 05-05-2016, 10:18 PM

Our old buddy Vin just gave up 7 in 1/3 of an inning. Seems oddly familiar

04-03-2016, 09:48 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1760308	* Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 * And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions. In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc. I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out: 2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot. Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense. Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise. Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud. 3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone. Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again. Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better. 4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar. Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so. Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB? 5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform. Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent... And, as always, here are the prospects. Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016: Spoiler! 1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1 2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016. 3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags. 4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level. 5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season. 6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup. 7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly. 8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up. 9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing. 10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with. Spoiler! 11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced. 12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch. 13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them. 14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching. 15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list. 16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far. 17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble. 18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates. 19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system. 20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.
Posts: 21,086

05-05-2016, 11:22 AM	#721
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $1992500	Cuthbert has played a little bit at 2B but I'm not sure you could put him there full time. I know they've dabbled with him in the OF but I don't believe he's ever played in a game out there. But I'm a big fan, I thought he looked ready last year. If he could play RF it would solve so many problems, but you don't want to throw a guy into the fire in the K's outfield. Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 54,944

05-05-2016, 12:01 PM	#722
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	This might be the last of Kendrys, 115/117 players in wRC+. Perhaps he is just starting slow, but he's 33 or whatever and maybe last year was a blip. If he's still hitting 210 at the ASB with no power we won't be within 4 games
Posts: 87,025

05-05-2016, 04:14 PM	#726
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1760308	Cuthbert could play 2B but it would look an awful lot like Daniel Murphy playing 2B. He just doesn't have the quickness or foot speed to play 2B, which is too bad, because his bat would be a big plus at that spot. I think he's limited to a corner or DH spot for KC. Probably has to wait another year before he has a real fit in KC (I'm assuming they won't sign another full-time DH and could carry Cuthbert as a reserve 1b/3b/DH type. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,086

05-05-2016, 04:16 PM	#727
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1760308	Oh, and I missed that O'Hearn had already been promoted to Northwest Arkansas... And that he hit a bomb in his first game there. Promising. He may force his way into the DH picture, too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,086

05-05-2016, 04:32 PM	#728
big nasty kcnut The pizza king of kansas Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Somewhere in the u.s.a. Casino cash: $1630900	Is kenmo hurt? __________________ When it's grim, be the grim reaper and go get it. Adopt a chiefs Travis Kelce. You woke up the wrong mother****er!
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05-05-2016, 07:10 PM	#732
SAUTO Shit Join Date: Jun 2008 Casino cash: $10039067	We are really missing zobrist
Posts: 55,715

05-05-2016, 07:39 PM	#733
Prison Bitch Rabbi Goldmann Join Date: Nov 2012 Casino cash: $5450159	Missing old Cain, Gordon and Kendrys more They should heat up. Cain looks better this week
Posts: 87,025

05-05-2016, 08:08 PM	#734
suzzer99 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: L.A. Casino cash: $2974284	Kendrys had had some of the worst luck with atem balls and near homers that I've seen.
Posts: 27,266

05-05-2016, 10:18 PM	#735
Why Not? In Search of a Life Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Kansas Casino cash: $3168994	Our old buddy Vin just gave up 7 in 1/3 of an inning. Seems oddly familiar
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