Expectations and Alex Smith

[keg in kc]

Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by patteeu

2001 was not a rebuilding year in the vein of 2009. It was a lot closer to what it looks like this year is shaping up to be. And with a new system being installed, it took Trent Green (who already knew the system) a year to get things going. I think it's reasonable to hope for the best in year 1 with Alex Smith but judge him on the results of year 2.

You can argue whether or not 2001 was was a rebuilding year or not, but that year does not equate with this year in any way, shape or form. Trent Green's only receiver was Tony Gonzalez (Derrick Alexander was trash, Eddie Kennison didn't arrive until the latter half of the season, Snoop Minnis, Larry Parker and Chris Thomas were the other guys), and as far as we knew that offseason we were going to be a RBbC (nobody expected Priest Holmes to be what he was). Tony Richardson had done okay at running back, but we had no idea that he'd be an established fullback. They did not have a good offensive line either, Tait was nothing special at left tackle (in fact I remember thinking he was a weak link, and lo and behold he was shifted to the right the next year when Roaf arrived), Victor Riley was a turnstile at right tackle, obviously Will Shields was great at right guard but he was basically it. We had no idea what Brian Waters was going to be, he was an undrafted player we got from the Cowboys a year or two earlier as I recall, who had to play center the first game of the season because Wiegmann was out. And we didn't think much of Weigmann at the time, either, as I recall. He was an undersized center who'd lost his job to Olin Kreutz.

So there was basically nothing on offense heading into the 2001 season, in other words, outside of Tony Gonzalez and Will Shields. Absolutely zero. Some of us expected exactly what we got from Trent Green because, until Kennison was picked up, he had no receivers at all, no established running back to start the season, and at best an okay offensive line.

Alex Smith has Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery starting, which is far better than any tandem of receivers than Green ever had to work with, and he has Dexter McCluster in the slot (whom Reid loves). And there are a variety of receivers to choose from behind them, whether it's speed in Devon Wylie or size in Jon Baldwin. He has Moeaki and Fasano at tight end, who, while they aren't Tony Gonzalez, also aren't a weakness. He has Jamaal Charles at runningback, who's more of a big play threat than any single player Green ever had, and one of the best players in the entire league. And I think it's fair to say that Draughn and Gray are better rotational backs than Mike Cloud and Jermaine Williams. Albert, if they keep him, is a better player than Tait at the time, and if they don't, he'll be replaced with a top-10 pick. The rest of the line is what should be ascending players mostly taken in the first half of the draft over the last few years. Which is at least equivalent to Green's 2001 line, and quite possibly better.

So let's not make this out to be something that it isn't. Alex Smith is being handed the keys to a Ferrari. Well, okay, maybe that's an exaggeration. The keys to a Mustang with a lot of extras. Trent Green was asked to drive a Yugo.

[HotCarl]

I think what we could reasonably expect would be Trent Green. But Alex Smith has more upside than Green ever had, so we could get something better.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by HotCarl

I think what we could reasonably expect would be Trent Green. But Alex Smith has more upside than Green ever had, so we could get something better.

Moron.

[HotCarl]

Hi fan club! I've missed you! Kissies!

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

You can argue whether or not 2001 was was a rebuilding year or not, but that year does not equate with this year in any way, shape or form. Trent Green's only receiver was Tony Gonzalez (Derrick Alexander was trash, Eddie Kennison didn't arrive until the latter half of the season, Snoop Minnis, Larry Parker and Chris Thomas were the other guys), and as far as we knew that offseason we were going to be a RBbC (nobody expected Priest Holmes to be what he was). Tony Richardson had done okay at running back, but we had no idea that he'd be an established fullback. They did not have a good offensive line either, Tait was nothing special at left tackle (in fact I remember thinking he was a weak link, and lo and behold he was shifted to the right the next year when Roaf arrived), Victor Riley was a turnstile at right tackle, obviously Will Shields was great at right guard but he was basically it. We had no idea what Brian Waters was going to be, he was an undrafted player we got from the Cowboys a year or two earlier as I recall, who had to play center the first game of the season because Wiegmann was out. And we didn't think much of Weigmann at the time, either, as I recall. He was an undersized center who'd lost his job to Olin Kreutz.

So there was basically nothing on offense heading into the 2001 season, in other words, outside of Tony Gonzalez and Will Shields. Absolutely zero. Some of us expected exactly what we got from Trent Green because, until Kennison was picked up, he had no receivers at all, no established running back to start the season, and at best an okay offensive line.

Alex Smith has Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery starting, which is far better than any tandem of receivers than Green ever had to work with, and he has Dexter McCluster in the slot (whom Reid loves). And there are a variety of receivers to choose from behind them, whether it's speed in Devon Wylie or size in Jon Baldwin. He has Moeaki and Fasano at tight end, who, while they aren't Tony Gonzalez, also aren't a weakness. He has Jamaal Charles at runningback, who's more of a big play threat than any single player Green ever had, and one of the best players in the entire league. And I think it's fair to say that Draughn and Gray are better rotational backs than Mike Cloud and Jermaine Williams. Albert, if they keep him, is a better player than Tait at the time, and if they don't, he'll be replaced with a top-10 pick. The rest of the line is what should be ascending players mostly taken in the first half of the draft over the last few years. Which is at least equivalent to Green's 2001 line, and quite possibly better.

So let's not make this out to be something that it isn't. Alex Smith is being handed the keys to a Ferrari. Well, okay, maybe that's an exaggeration. The keys to a Mustang with a lot of extras. Trent Green was asked to drive a Yugo.

I think you're understating what Trent Green actually had his first year (when you describe it as a Yugo), but I'll agree that the 2013 lineup is probably better. Nontheless, I continue to maintain that 2001 was more like 2013 than like 2009.

[O.city]

Not just offensively, but defensively, there is an ass ton more talent here in 2013 than there was in 01.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

You can argue whether or not 2001 was was a rebuilding year or not, but that year does not equate with this year in any way, shape or form. Trent Green's only receiver was Tony Gonzalez (Derrick Alexander was trash, Eddie Kennison didn't arrive until the latter half of the season, Snoop Minnis, Larry Parker and Chris Thomas were the other guys), and as far as we knew that offseason we were going to be a RBbC (nobody expected Priest Holmes to be what he was). Tony Richardson had done okay at running back, but we had no idea that he'd be an established fullback. They did not have a good offensive line either, Tait was nothing special at left tackle (in fact I remember thinking he was a weak link, and lo and behold he was shifted to the right the next year when Roaf arrived), Victor Riley was a turnstile at right tackle, obviously Will Shields was great at right guard but he was basically it. We had no idea what Brian Waters was going to be, he was an undrafted player we got from the Cowboys a year or two earlier as I recall, who had to play center the first game of the season because Wiegmann was out. And we didn't think much of Weigmann at the time, either, as I recall. He was an undersized center who'd lost his job to Olin Kreutz.

So there was basically nothing on offense heading into the 2001 season, in other words, outside of Tony Gonzalez and Will Shields. Absolutely zero. Some of us expected exactly what we got from Trent Green because, until Kennison was picked up, he had no receivers at all, no established running back to start the season, and at best an okay offensive line.

Alex Smith has Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery starting, which is far better than any tandem of receivers than Green ever had to work with, and he has Dexter McCluster in the slot (whom Reid loves). And there are a variety of receivers to choose from behind them, whether it's speed in Devon Wylie or size in Jon Baldwin. He has Moeaki and Fasano at tight end, who, while they aren't Tony Gonzalez, also aren't a weakness. He has Jamaal Charles at runningback, who's more of a big play threat than any single player Green ever had, and one of the best players in the entire league. And I think it's fair to say that Draughn and Gray are better rotational backs than Mike Cloud and Jermaine Williams. Albert, if they keep him, is a better player than Tait at the time, and if they don't, he'll be replaced with a top-10 pick. The rest of the line is what should be ascending players mostly taken in the first half of the draft over the last few years. Which is at least equivalent to Green's 2001 line, and quite possibly better.

So let's not make this out to be something that it isn't. Alex Smith is being handed the keys to a Ferrari. Well, okay, maybe that's an exaggeration. The keys to a Mustang with a lot of extras. Trent Green was asked to drive a Yugo.

Baldwin is a waste of a roster spot at this point IMO. McCluster.. well... he might be a good punt return option.

Wylie won't make it out of camp, so in essence the '13 Chiefs are only a few steps above the '01 Chiefs. They're head and shoulders better at RB, a wash or worse at FB, better at WR1, wash at WR2, "technically" worse at TE, wash at OL, and it's yet to be determined if QB1 is better in '13 than '01.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Which of those could you reasonably expect to get for that kind of compensation?

That's the point.

Are you saying that it's ok to trade a first round pick for a guy that is easily recognizable as bottom half of the league and to give him 20 million over 2 years?

Of course you can't get a REAL quarterback for what we spent...they are worth more than that and it was a trade that EVERYONE sags we gave up too much.

Last offseason, nobody wanted to give Alex Smith a real contract for a reason.

[Ace Gunner]

Originally Posted by milkman

I don't see him as ascending.

He has gotten coaching and playcalling to help him avoid failure.

That is how Cassel "succeeded" in '08 and '10.

oh ya. it had nothing to do with the fact Cassel had Randy Moss, Wes Welker & Bowe during those years.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Buzz_TinBalls

oh ya. it had nothing to do with the fact Cassel had Randy Moss, Wes Welker & Bowe during those years.

Of course, surrounding talent contributed, as it did with Charles and Bowe.
But we saw what he is with poor coaching and playcalling, even Charles and Bowe last year.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Coogs

There is really no such thing as a last place schedule anymore.

Here is our schedule:

2013 Kansas City Chiefs Opponents

Home Denver, Oakland, San Diego, Houston, Indianapolis, Dallas, N.Y. Giants,
Cleveland

Away Denver, Oakland, San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Philadelphia,
Washington, Buffalo

It looks pretty much the same as the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders.

Only difference is we have Cleveland and Buffalo.

I pointed out in another thread that our strength of schedule is actually harder next year than Denver's by virtue of the fact they were 13-3 and we were 2-14.....

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That's the point.

Are you saying that it's ok to trade a first round pick for a guy that is easily recognizable as bottom half of the league and to give him 20 million over 2 years?

Of course you can't get a REAL quarterback for what we spent...they are worth more than that and it was a trade that EVERYONE sags we gave up too much.

Last offseason, nobody wanted to give Alex Smith a real contract for a reason.

It was a second round pick.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by splatbass

It was a second round pick.

Second round picks are selections where a team's front office proves their worth in finding players who can find their way into the starting lineup by their second or third seasons and stay in such a position for two or three seasons after that.

If Alex Smith's tenure in KC is that of a carbon copy of Matt Cassel's where he's released by year four, is the trade worth it?

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Second round picks are selections where a team's front office proves their worth in finding players who can find their way into the starting lineup by their second or third seasons and stay in such a position for two or three seasons after that.

So? It was a second round pick. It was not a first round pick as was stated. This is a fact. I'm not sure what you are even talking about, or how it relates to my post.

[BossChief]

A second round pick and a third round pick equate to a mid to late first.

The 34th pick is worth 580 draft value points. The 16th pick in the second round is worth 420 points....that equates to 1000 points, which is what the 16th pick in the first round is worth. If we only give up a third next year That's worth 190 points, added to the 580 we give up this year, that's 770 points given up...the equivalent of the 21st pick in the first round.

So, yes, we did give up a first round pick worth of draft compensation for Alex Smith.