****Official 2013-14 Missouri Tiger Football Repository Thread****

['Hamas' Jenkins]

We have two things to look forward to this year:

1) The potential beginning of the Maty Mauk Era. Mauk represents the best chance for this program to get back to a level of respectability after horrendous QB play cost us multiple games last year.

2) The last year of the Gary Pinkel era. Pinkel's entrenched cronyism won't play in a conference this competitive, especially if he couples his abysmal gameday coaching with lackadaisical, worst-in-conference recruiting. Pinkel was the formerly adequate meal that has now turned into a four pound bowel obstruction. It's time to jam a Fleet's enema up our collective asses.

Here is the schedule. We dodge Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas in the west and the Non-con is decidedly weaker than years past.

8/31: Murray State
9/7: Toledo
9/21: @ Indiana
9/28: Arkansas State
10/5:@ Vanderbilt
10/12: @ Georgia
10/19:Florida
10/26: South Carolina
11/2:Tennessee
11/9: @ Kentucky
11/23: @ Ole Miss
11/30: aTm

Looks like 6-6. Undefeated in non-con, 2-6 in league play.

I will eventually update the OP with a list of high profile in-state recruits that decide to go elsewhere after a half-assed attempt to gain their services. The inevitable cavalcade of *** rejects, skeezers, skanks, and scalliwags we get will fill out the ranks.


Razors, cyanide capsules, and Jonestown Kool-Aid are available in the break room. Second door on the left.

Since every Mizzou thread eventually dies of AIDS, I recommend starting anti-retroviral therapy immediately. I believe Walgreens covers Express Scripts.


Premium In-State Players:

Roderick Johnson: **** OT, Florissant, MO.
Monte Harrison: **** WR, Lee's Summit, MO.
Jimmy Swain: **** LB, Lee's Summit, MO


Commitment List: From to and possibly

Spoiler!

Committed - Not Yet Signed

Name	Pos	Location	Ht	Wt	40	Rivals Rating
Paul Adams	OL	Nashville, TNChrist Presbyterian Academy	6'6"	270		5.5
Sam Bailey	OL	Lamar, MOLamar Jr/Sr R 1	6'5"	245		5.4
Andy Bauer	OL	St. Louis, MODeSmet	6'6"	304	5.2	5.9
Kendall Blanton	TE	Blue Springs, MOBlue Springs South	6'5"	225		5.4
Nate Brown	WR	Suwanee, GANorth Gwinnett	6'3"	215	4.5	5.7
Logan Cheadle	DB	Lee's Summit, MOLee's Summit West	5'10"	165		5.6
Kenya Dennis	DB	Raymond, MSHinds C.C.	6'0"	190		5.5
Michael Fairchild	OL	Overland Park, KSBlue Valley West	6'6"	262		5.4
Darnell Green-Beckham	WR	Springfield, MOHillcrest	6'5"	175		5.3
Zach Hudson	OL	Tampa, FLSickles	6'5"	280		5.5
Stepfawn Hughes	ATH	Fort Worth, TXDunbar	5'10"	170	4.6	5.5
Grant Jones	ATH	Columbia, MOHickman	6'3"	216		5.5
Lawrence Lee	WR	Pensacola, FLWest Florida Tech	5'10"	167	4.5	5.6
Rocel McWilliams	DE	Pensacola, FLWest Florida Tech	6'3"	240		5.5
Kevin Pendleton	OL	Lee's Summit, MOLee's Summit West	6'4"	329		5.5
Thomas Richard	WR	Nashville, TNChrist Presbyterian Academy	6'1"	185		5.4
Tavon Ross	ATH	Cochran, GABleckley County	6'1"	196		5.4
Finis Stribling IV	DB	Thompson's Station, TNIndependence	5'10"	170	4.5	5.4
Greg Taylor	DB	East St. Louis, ILEast St. Louis	5'10"	181		5.7
Trevon Walters	RB	Bradenton, FLManatee	5'10"	189		5.4
Jhonathon Williams	DE	Berrien Springs, MIBerrien Springs	6'6"	230	4.5	5.5
Thomas Wilson	ATH	Buford, GABuford	5'10"	176		5.5
Roderick Winters	LB	Arlington, TXBowie	5'11"	196	4.5	5.3
Ish Witter	RB	Tampa, FLAlonso	5'8"	190	4.6	5.5
Marvin Zanders	QB	Jacksonville, FLRaines	6'1"	175		5.5

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by warpaint*

Murray State had 200 yards of offense in the 1q alone. Toledo moved the ball at will at times and helped MU out w/ penalties to kill drives. Indiana is atrocious and has one of the worst olines I have ever seen. Whereas UGA has given up one sack on the season. If the offense wasn't scoring prodigiously Vandy could have gotten back in that game, those weren't garbage yards they were piling up. MU has EJ Gaines and 3 liabilities in that secondary. Aaron Murray will be one of the 2 best qbs they see this year, I expect him to carve us up. If Gurley plays as well it's lights out.

If you could promise James Franklin would play as well as he did Sat I'd say MU could possibly make a track meet out of it but he's been too up and down over his career for me to say he's going to do that for sure. He was fantastic Sat night.

Georgia has given up more than one sack on the season. It gave up at least three against Clemson alone.

I still think Georgia is LIKELY good enough to overcome the injuries, because it has Aaron Murray and is playing at home. But Missouri definitely has a shot.

Todd Gurley has yet to do anything but run in a straight line this week. It's 48 hours before game time and he hasn't tested his ankle on cuts. Even if he does manage to play, it's highly unlikely he is vintage Todd Gurley.

Georgia's defense is bad, folks. Fire-the-coordinator bad. If Missouri can score in the 30s - and considering that a much worse offense in Tennessee did just that a week ago - it will have a shot.

[Jerm]

To me this just reeks as one of those games where Mizzou is expected to come in and compete and possibly win a huge SEC game and take that next step....and then they'll just get blown off the field and routed.

[Saul Good]

Yards per play is an important stat in college football...as is points per play. Total yards/points is far more dependent on other variables.

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by frazod

This. As much as I want to believe this time is different, I've seen this movie too many times and I know how it ends. Beating up on a pair of perennial losers and the other KUpcakes doesn't impress me. A bunch of bold talk doesn't impress me.

****ing beat somebody good, and then beat somebody else that's good. THAT will impress me.

I'm from Missouri. SHOW ME.

Also, fire James Franklin!

lolololol

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by Jerm

To me this just reeks as one of those games where Mizzou is expected to come in and compete and possibly win a huge SEC game and take that next step....and then they'll just get blown off the field and routed.

This is always a possibility when Mizzou is involved.

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

This is always a possibility when Mizzou is involved.

Or ya know...it is just sports.

[Frazod]

Originally Posted by |Zach|

Also, fire James Franklin!

lolololol

You and Saul make a lovely couple.

Does he roll you in flour to find the wet spot?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Short answer?

Yards surrendered has more predictive value.

Points scored can be dependent on things like a turnover short-circuiting a drive or an ill-timed penalty from the opposition. Granted, some teams build their defenses around exactly that, but it's not the norm.

So when you're looking for a rearview statement of how a team's defense has done, points scored is obviously the best metric. However, when you're trying to analyze how a team may do going forward, yards surrendered is a more constant statistic with more predictive weight.

If the Tigers have routinely given up a lot of yards this season, they're probably going to give up a lot of yards in most every game they play. However, they won't necessarily get a lot of the turnovers, sacks, etc... that have stalled drives for them in every game this year. So even though they've not been a bad scoring defense, there's very little predictive weight to that.

The best example I can give you is the 2003 Chiefs. The Chiefs were actually an average defense on the year when discussing points allowed. The NFL average was 20.83 PPG and the Chiefs gave up 20.75 PPG - a tick below the NFL average. However, in total yards, the Chiefs were the 4th worst in the NFL that year, giving up more than 10% more YPG than league average (356/gm vs. 318).

And as we all remember, the Chiefs got worse and worse as those breaks stopped coming. Teams learned to avoid turnovers and just plug away at the defense. Suddenly the Chiefs PPG ended up right in line with their YPG and the Chiefs gave up 27.5 PPG over their last 8 games (including the Colts game).

If you're looking at numbers and trying to predict what a teams going to do going forward, yards surrendered by a defense is actually probably the best stat to look at. It's counter-intuitive and it took me years to get there, but it really is the best predictor of future results.

The wild card here isn't necessarily the number itself, but the fact that the Tigers may have been sandbagging against lesser opponents and as a consequence have an unduly inflated yards allowed figure.

You make good points about the predictive quality of yards surrendered, but I'd still argue that yards per play, yards per attempt and yards per rush are better indicators than just total yards. Those things will hold up regardless of number of possessions and total plays.

For example, what's better:

A defense that faces 85 offensive plays per game (40 pass, 45 run) and surrenders 450 total yards (5.3 YPP) or a defense that faces 70 total plays and surrenders 400 total yards (5.7 YPP)?

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by frazod

You and Saul make a lovely couple.

Does he roll you in flour to find the wet spot?

I love it when fat people make fat jokes. It's like Jayhawk fans trying to talk shit on Mizzou football.

But seriously...fire Pinkel if he isn't winning by enough at halftime.

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by frazod

You and Saul make a lovely couple.

Does he roll you in flour to find the wet spot?

Don't you have to go raise the white flag for Missouri somewhere? Thank god our players are not as big of a pussy as you are.

[|Zach|]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

But seriously...fire Pinkel if he isn't winning by enough at halftime.

Frazod moved frantically to try to forfeit the game for Mizzou before he could even be fired.

[Frazod]

[warpaint*]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Georgia has given up more than one sack on the season. It gave up at least three against Clemson alone.

I still think Georgia is LIKELY good enough to overcome the injuries, because it has Aaron Murray and is playing at home. But Missouri definitely has a shot.

Todd Gurley has yet to do anything but run in a straight line this week. It's 48 hours before game time and he hasn't tested his ankle on cuts. Even if he does manage to play, it's highly unlikely he is vintage Todd Gurley.

Georgia's defense is bad, folks. Fire-the-coordinator bad. If Missouri can score in the 30s - and considering that a much worse offense in Tennessee did just that a week ago - it will have a shot.

Ya you're right I looked it up, it's 7. I got the 1 # from what their rivals guy quoted & didn't fact check him.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by warpaint*

Ya you're right I looked it up, it's 7. I got the 1 # from what their rivals guy quoted & didn't fact check him.

I think it's 1 in their last three games.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

You make good points about the predictive quality of yards surrendered, but I'd still argue that yards per play, yards per attempt and yards per rush are better indicators than just total yards. Those things will hold up regardless of number of possessions and total plays.

For example, what's better:

A defense that faces 85 offensive plays per game (40 pass, 45 run) and surrenders 450 total yards (5.3 YPP) or a defense that faces 70 total plays and surrenders 400 total yards (5.7 YPP)?

That's fair, especially given that the defense that faces more plays is likely to be more tired and therefore the lower YPP is even more impressive.

In the end, my point remains that yards are more static and predictive than points, but yards even further distilled on a per play basis should be better still.

Though pretty much any stat you try to assign a predictive weight to in college football is going to be prone to pretty wild variances given the massive differences in competition level.