Late night bullshit: I know this means I'm clinically stupid, but I think RG3 busts.

[Direckshun]

Yes, that's right.

And yes, I know this makes me stupid, because everybody and their mother loves RG3 and believes he is a potential All Pro QB.

I'll keep this short and sweet, since I haven't even hit "submit" yet and I can sense the brow-beating I'm going to take.

But some people believe you should trade away our entire draft for RG3. Something no other team in the NFL has ever done for a QB.

I don't think we should. And putting aside all those worries about the draft being a place from which we can build depth, and all the young talent we'd be forfeiting on, etc etc.

For the purposes of this post, I'm just going to focus on RG3. I think the kid could bust.

Several concerns:

* The only player that actually projects to RG3's style of play in the modern NFL is Michael Vick. And Vick's career has been injury-laden and teams have effectively schemed in 2011 to erase him from the equation anyway.

* Griffin has a fantastic arm. But if you watch any games he played over the past couple years, it's not exactly a pro offense he's running, to put it kindly. To put it even harsher, Griffin's extreme, unprecedented athleticism absorbed and confused college defenses so profoundly that he was basically playing catch the past couple of years against broken-down defenses. Anybody watch the bowl game against Washington?

I am a believer that the more NFL throws (i.e. accurate throws into tight windows) a QB has to make in college is a predictor of their NFL success. Griffin was such a unique talent in that wide-open spread Baylor runs that he almost never had to do this.

* His style of play is radical. There's no existing playbook for somebody who plays like he does, with his amazing versatility and electric game-breaking ability. There's no precedent that this kind of quarterbacking reaps Super Bowl success.

* A lot of Griffin's highlight reels come from broken plays, and he is an astonishing player for those kinds of circumstances. His Plan Cs and Ds are fascinating. But I don't have a lot of faith in Griffin's abilities to read blitzes or coverage schemes, because he's never had to. (Granted, this is a complaint for the vast majority of QB prospects, but it's a valid concern if we're giving up an entire draft for the guy.)

* Also, and this might just be my lack of familiarity with who RG3 is as a person: by all accounts, RG3 is a humble, high-character kid. But I don't know if he's intelligent. There are some truly intelligent players in this draft: Luck, Cousins, Weeden, Keenum. But there hasn't been the same flooding of praise about RG3's intelligence as there has been for some of these other QBs.

I accept the punishment I'm about to receive. I know it's coming. I'm and idiot.

But somebody needs to register some dissent against the assinine idea of trading away an entire draft for a player we'd have to radically reconstruct our playbook to accomodate.

[Sofa King]

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Sofa King

God you're fast.

Quick, gif up how badly I'm going to get my ass handed to me in this thread.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

God you're fast.

Quick, gif up how badly I'm going to get my ass handed to me in this thread.

I've said something similar a couple of times and didn't really need to wear asbestos underwear for it.

I think most folks realize that there's no such thing as a sure-thing NFL prospect, especially at QB. And he's absolutely an unconventional quarterback, so it's hard to know exactly how he'll translate to this level. Then again, Newton managed.

Oddly enough, the dude is short by 'prototype' standards, but nobody's really holding that against him.

Ultimately, his upside is unmatched by anyone in the league, Newton included. That's what has folks so intrigued by him. But whenever you start talking upside, the negative corollary is generally ignored; there's always risk to those 'upside' guys.

I guess the way to look at him is similar to how Hockeysfuture ranks their prospects. They give them a numerical 'upside' grade and a letter grade that comports with how likely they are to ever truly reach it.

For instance, Luck would probably be considered a 9.5A-; very high upside w/ every indication that he'll hit it. Someone like Weeden would probably be considered a 7.0A; game manager upside with very little chance he doesn't get there; Lindley would be considered an 8.0C; potentially plus quarterback with a very slim chance that he hits it. DeCastro is one of the few guys in the draft I would probably call a 10A

I look at RGIII as a 10C+; he has a chance to be something this league simply doesn't have - but the chances he gets all the way to that 10 are pretty remote.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I've said something similar a couple of times and didn't really need to wear asbestos underwear for it.

I think most folks realize that there's no such thing as a sure-thing NFL prospect, especially at QB. And he's absolutely an unconventional quarterback, so it's hard to know exactly how he'll translate to this level. Then again, Newton managed.

Oddly enough, the dude is short by 'prototype' standards, but nobody's really holding that against him.

Ultimately, his upside is unmatched by anyone in the league, Newton included. That's what has folks so intrigued by him. But whenever you start talking upside, the negative corollary is generally ignored; there's always risk to those 'upside' guys.

I guess the way to look at him is similar to how Hockeysfuture ranks their prospects. They give them a numerical 'upside' grade and a letter grade that comports with how likely they are to ever truly reach it.

For instance, Luck would probably be considered a 9.5A-; very high upside w/ every indication that he'll hit it. Someone like Weeden would probably be considered a 7.0A; game manager upside with very little chance he doesn't get there; Lindley would be considered an 8.0C; potentially plus quarterback with a very slim chance that he hits it. DeCastro is one of the few guys in the draft I would probably call a 10A

I look at RGIII as a 10C+; he has a chance to be something this league simply doesn't have - but the chances he gets all the way to that 10 are pretty remote.

The guys that bust are usually dumbasses.

The Vince Youngs, the Ryan Leafs, the JaMarcus Russell's.

They generally are guys with a sense of entitlment who really dod't have the capacity to understand how lucky they are to have the god given ability they have, and understand even less that it still requires hard work to maximize that ability.

I don't see that as an issue with RGIII.

[Rasputin]

You lost me when compared to mike vick man. He is a good passer & can have upside much like Cam Newton. I can understand the conserns, however we never go out of our way for a top notch draft pick & it's been over 30 years since we drafted one in the first round. Look at our track record & number of playoff wins as a result.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by KC Tattoo

You lost me when compared to mike vick man. He is a good passer & can have upside much like Cam Newton. I can understand the conserns, however we never go out of our way for a top notch draft pick & it's been over 30 years since we drafted one in the first round. Look at our track record & number of playoff wins as a result.

Cam Newton, off the top of my head, is two inches taller (meh) and something like 30-40 pounds of pure muscle heavier.

Newton, like Tebow, can afford to play that way because he has the body to take that kind of abuse.

RG3's body type is pure Vick.

I can appreciate your desire to win playoffs games. But I'm all about picking the high fruit. I want a Super Bowl. And an RG3, Mike Vick type QB has never won one.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Cam Newton, off the top of my head, is two inches taller (meh) and something like 30-40 pounds of pure muscle heavier.

Newton, like Tebow, can afford to play that way because he has the body to take that kind of abuse.

RG3's body type is pure Vick.

I can appreciate your desire to win playoffs games. But I'm all about picking the high fruit. I want a Super Bowl. And an RG3, Mike Vick type QB has never won one.

But RGIII unlike Vick is a pass first QB. Big, big difference.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Cam Newton, off the top of my head, is two inches taller (meh) and something like 30-40 pounds of pure muscle heavier.

Newton, like Tebow, can afford to play that way because he has the body to take that kind of abuse.

RG3's body type is pure Vick.

I can appreciate your desire to win playoffs games. But I'm all about picking the high fruit. I want a Super Bowl. And an RG3, Mike Vick type QB has never won one.

The only valid comparison between RGIII and Vick is that both are black and athletic.

Vick was in an offense equally as simplistic nad didn't throw the ball with near the acuracy that RGIII did in colloege, and RGIII is a passer that has the athletic ability to run when everything breaks down, whereas Vick was a run first QB.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by milkman

The only valid comparison between RGIII and Vick is that both are black and athletic.

Vick was in an offense equally as simplistic nad didn't throw the ball with near the acuracy that RGIII did in colloege, and RGIII is a passer that has the athletic ability to run when everything breaks down, whereas Vick was a run first QB.

I think the best point Direkshun made in his post has been overlooked thus far.

RGIII completed a shitload of passes in college and his Comp% looked great, certainly. But like Direkshun pointed out, a ton of those came from RGIII breaking down coverage through the threat of his legs.

We saw him make some nice passes this year, and I'm not worried about his ability to read defenses. However, we didn't really see him throwing into a lot of small windows this season or last. For the most part he was able to use his legs to break the secondary down and throw to very wide open guys.

Now he hit 'em. And there's nothing he can do to make the defensive backs hang with his guys. At the same time, there just isn't a lot of film out there of him dropping one over a zone LBer, under a safety and just beyond the reach of a closing CB. The film will show a strong arm firing the ball into wide open windows.

So in other words, we won't know if he can hit a lot of those tiny NFL windows (more accurately, portholes) until he does it. And that's the major risk with RGIII, IMO. Granted, he can still break down defenses with his legs, but then you start to get into those 'risky' offenses where you're going to get him hit a little more, get him running a little more, etc... An offense where he isn't asked to be a passer that can run, but rather one where he's going to be a hybrid type; a Cunningham. As opposed to Young, who is the perfect example of an pinpoint passer with athletic ability.

Can he hit those windows and be Steve Young or will he need all that space and be Randall Cunningham? It's just hard to know, hence the risk.

[Rasputin]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Cam Newton, off the top of my head, is two inches taller (meh) and something like 30-40 pounds of pure muscle heavier.

Newton, like Tebow, can afford to play that way because he has the body to take that kind of abuse.

RG3's body type is pure Vick.

I can appreciate your desire to win playoffs games. But I'm all about picking the high fruit. I want a Super Bowl. And an RG3, Mike Vick type QB has never won one.

We all want a Super Bowl DUH~ It's how to get there that matters & the past history of rejected retreads have lead nothing but FAIL so suck on that. Now if we can get a guy that is here for the long hall that can put us in the hunt year in and year out that we can enjoy watching can put us over the top & glory. Nothing is guaranteed in this game, but I like the odds of a player that can be around 10+ years to give us that chance & possibly be greety for more.

[tredadda]

The guy is close to his Masters degree in the time it takes most to earn their Bachelors. If that doesnt say something about his intelligence, nothing will.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

But I don't know if he's intelligent. There are some truly intelligent players in this draft: Luck, Cousins, Weeden, Keenum. But there hasn't been the same flooding of praise about RG3's intelligence as there has been for some of these other QBs.

Have you watched any interviews with the kid? Everything I have seen and read about this RGIII directly contradicts your concerns here.

[milkman]

What's your difinition of "short"?

[O.city]

He was accepted into Law school after 3 years in college where he got a degree in political science and was finishing a masters degree in it this year.


I'd say he's pretty intelligent.