The NFL’s New Defensive Rules Probably Aren’t Going To Make A Difference

[Direckshun]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...-a-difference/

The NFL’s New Defensive Rules Probably Aren’t Going To Make A Difference
By NEIL PAINE
3:04 PM AUG 12

Every offseason, NFL officials make an instructional video that highlights new rules and gives players a warning about which existing ones will be called more tightly in the upcoming season. This year, officials say they’re going to key in on defensive holding and illegal contact, ensuring they’re called correctly.

According to reporting by ESPN’s Jeffri Chadiha, officials became concerned that those particular penalties were not being called as often as they were a decade ago. (Conspiracy theorists, on the other hand, blamed the Seattle Seahawks’ dominant defensive performance against Peyton Manning’s record-setting Denver Broncos offense in the Super Bowl.) With an assist from the data of Pro-Football-Reference.com, we wondered if the official rationale holds up: Have illegal contact and defensive holding really been called less (on a per-pass basis) in recent seasons?

In the case of illegal contact, yes. In 2004, Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian spent the offseason lobbying the NFL Competition Committee to more strictly enforce the illegal contact rule in the wake of his team’s 24-14 playoff defeat against the New England Patriots (a game in which Manning — then playing for Indianapolis — tossed four interceptions).

As the chart below shows, referees began calling the penalty much more often the very next season, a 15-year high point. Since then, the penalty’s frequency has steadily receded.

However, the pattern is less obvious with defensive holding, which also peaked around the middle of the decade but reversed its decline by 2010, and was near its 15-year high just last season. It doesn’t seem to be a penalty in need of greater emphasis.

Then again, concerns about the wisdom of placing more restrictions on defenders in an already pass-happy league may be largely academic. At least in terms of illegal contact and defensive holding, there doesn’t seem to be any relationship between the frequency of either penalty being called and the NFL’s overall level of passing efficiency (as measured by Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt).



The last time the NFL cracked down on holding and contact by defenders, it didn’t make any noticeable dent in the rising trend of passing efficiency. Pass offenses have steadily become more and more efficient over the last decade and a half — but that’s part of a longterm trend of increased passing efficacy, not because of the rule changes inspired by Polian a decade ago. The same will likely be true for the changes made this offseason as well.

[Direckshun]

Tons of linkage and a cool chart on the page.

I'm posting from my phone, unfortunately.

[Hammock Parties]

Everyone is more efficient at passing than they were 15 years ago.

Everyone EXCEPT the Chiefs.

Alex Smith 2013: 3,313 yards, 23 TD, 6.5 YPA, 10.8 YPC, 39 sacks

Elvis Grbac 2000: 4,169 yards, 28 TD, 7.5 YPA, 12.8 YPC, 29 sacks

[petegz28]

According to reporting by ESPN’s Jeffri Chadiha, officials became concerned that those particular penalties were not being called as often as they were a decade ago. (Conspiracy theorists, on the other hand, blamed the Seattle Seahawks’ dominant defensive performance against Peyton Manning’s record-setting Denver Broncos offense in the Super Bowl.)

In the case of illegal contact, yes. In 2004, Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian spent the offseason lobbying the NFL Competition Committee to more strictly enforce
the illegal contact rule in the wake of his team’s 24-14 playoff defeat against the New England Patriots (a game in which Manning — then playing for Indianapolis — tossed four interceptions).

As the chart below shows, referees began calling the penalty much more often the very next season, a 15-year high point.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Bulls hit D. The league made another Manning rule just like after the Pats pushed his shit in. It's pathetic.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by Pasta Giant Meatball

Bulls hit D. The league made another Manning rule just like after the Pats pushed his shit in. It's pathetic.

This. The rules change has already made a difference. Its virtually impossible for a DB to cover a WR. In just the few games Ive watched this preseason there's been way more illegal contact / holding which have slowed the games and extended drives. Its TOTAL BS...

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Count Zarth

Everyone is more efficient at passing than they were 15 years ago.

Everyone EXCEPT the Chiefs.

Alex Smith 2013: 3,313 yards, 23 TD, 6.5 YPA, 10.8 YPC, 39 sacks

Elvis Grbac 2000: 4,169 yards, 28 TD, 7.5 YPA, 12.8 YPC, 29 sacks

Right. SF, Oakland, Buffalo, etc...have all vastly improved in the QB area since the 90's.

[WhawhaWhat]

If they start calling DPI and illegal contact more often in the conference championship games and Super Bowl then something will have changed.

[petegz28]

I just find it hilarious that the OP calls it a conspiracy to say it's because of Manning then goes on to cite how the league previously changed how they make calls because of Manning.

[Nightfyre]

I would like to see how many DPI/D Holding calls manning and brady get compared to other QBs.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

I would like to see how many DPI/D Holding calls manning and brady get compared to other QBs.

I combined DPI, D Holding, and Illegal Contact. Baltimore was actually the biggest beneficiary, getting 295 free yards from those penalties. Denver and NE were 2nd and 3rd, with 255 and 250 yards.

Logically though, a team that passes more will naturally gain more yards through these penalties than a team that primarily runs. If you divide the penalty yards gained by passing plays, Baltimore stays on top, NE is 2nd, and Denver drops to 5th, right behind Tampa Bay (?) and Indy.

The takeaway from this is clear: The refs love Flacco.

KC is basically league average in both categories. Hilariously, Washington only gained 16 yards throughout the entire season on these penalties.

[Deberg_1990]

Translation:

Manning will still get his asss beat down in the playoffs when the real defenses come to play.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Rules catered to him and still only a title because of Rex Grossman. That's pretty sad.

[keg in kc]

There's supposed to be an emphasis on OPI, but I haven't seen it so far. There were some really questionable calls last night, including one where the DB (gratz i think it was) fell down and somehow got a holding call.

[petegz28]

Watching the NE-PHI game and JFC they are calling defensive holding every other play