Does Elvis move the sticks on 3rd-down?

DanT · 09-28-2000, 05:33 PM

Hey, did you know that last season Elvis got more 1st-downs from 3rd-down passes than any other QB in the AFC? Here are the final 1999 numbers on the AFC QBs who had more than 270 passing attempts, ranked by 1st-down-conversion percentage. The columns shown are 3rd-down passing-attempts, 3rd-down completions, number that resulted in a 1st-down, same number expressed as a percentage, 3rd-down passer rating, overall passer rating, and QB name. I compiled the data from the Situational Splits available from each player's profile on sportsline.com.

3dA Cp 1D 1Dpct 3dRat Rat Name
154 94 62 39.0% 89.3 81.7 Grbac
151 91 60 38.0% 79.6 90.7 Manning
_82 45 32 36.8% 93.6 85.1 Lucas
147 77 61 36.7% 76.0 86.5 Gannon
147 81 57 36.3% 70.5 75.1 Flutie
139 77 53 35.8% 72.2 82.0 Brunell
108 57 41 35.7% 88.8 77.6 Blake
128 74 49 34.8% 73.8 70.6 Harbaugh
_94 48 31 32.6% 66.2 78.6 McNair
_88 44 30 31.9% 62.7 64.9 Stewart
130 61 46 31.3% 66.5 77.7 Kitna
129 73 43 30.9% 72.9 75.6 Griese
149 73 54 30.7% 76.7 75.6 Bledsoe
_98 47 34 30.6% 79.9 81.2 Banks
103 42 31 29.5% 38.7 67.4 Marino
117 56 30 21.9% 40.7 73.2 Couch

[This message has been edited by DanT (edited 09-28-2000).]

DanT · 09-28-2000, 05:34 PM

So far this year, Grbac's numbers are
37 21 17 43.6% 59.6 90.8

3 of his 4 interceptions this year have come on 3rd down, which is why his 3rd-down passer rating this season is down. Happily, he's still getting 1st-downs via 3rd-down passing at about a 40% clip, which is damn good.

One last thing to note about these numbers is the fact that lots of 3rd-down completions in the NFL are short of the 1st-down marker. Elvis completes as many of these short-tosses as anyone, which can be annoying to some, but to me the bottom line is to move the sticks, which is what Elvis does. If you can't get the first down directly from a downfield receiver, why not dump off a short pass and let your upfield receivers at least have a chance to get the necessary yards after the catch?

DanT · 09-28-2000, 05:42 PM

Another thing to note is that 3rd-down is a tougher time to throw the ball. Note how most QBs have a lower 3rd-down passer rating compared to their overall rating. Last year, Elvis was actually a better passer on 3rd-down, but not this year.

I can see why Derrick named his foundation "3rd and Long": that's a favorable situation for a defender, obviously!

[This message has been edited by DanT (edited 09-28-2000).]

Luzap · 09-28-2000, 05:51 PM

Wait a minute Dan!...

Are you trying to tell us that Elvis' expolsion of high caliber QB play started long BEFORE this year?

What about all the Grbashers that are still hanging onto the tenet that a coup[le of good games does not a good QB make?

Luz
they know who they are...

09-28-2000, 05:34 PM	#2
DanT Veteran Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Davis, CA Casino cash: $4521711	So far this year, Grbac's numbers are 37 21 17 43.6% 59.6 90.8 3 of his 4 interceptions this year have come on 3rd down, which is why his 3rd-down passer rating this season is down. Happily, he's still getting 1st-downs via 3rd-down passing at about a 40% clip, which is damn good. One last thing to note about these numbers is the fact that lots of 3rd-down completions in the NFL are short of the 1st-down marker. Elvis completes as many of these short-tosses as anyone, which can be annoying to some, but to me the bottom line is to move the sticks, which is what Elvis does. If you can't get the first down directly from a downfield receiver, why not dump off a short pass and let your upfield receivers at least have a chance to get the necessary yards after the catch?
Posts: 4,224

09-28-2000, 05:42 PM	#3
DanT Veteran Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Davis, CA Casino cash: $4521711	Another thing to note is that 3rd-down is a tougher time to throw the ball. Note how most QBs have a lower 3rd-down passer rating compared to their overall rating. Last year, Elvis was actually a better passer on 3rd-down, but not this year. I can see why Derrick named his foundation "3rd and Long": that's a favorable situation for a defender, obviously! [This message has been edited by DanT (edited 09-28-2000).]
Posts: 4,224

09-28-2000, 05:51 PM	#4
Luzap 9.89 Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Dallas, TX Casino cash: $10004900	Wait a minute Dan!... Are you trying to tell us that Elvis' expolsion of high caliber QB play started long BEFORE this year? What about all the Grbashers that are still hanging onto the tenet that a coup[le of good games does not a good QB make? Luz they know who they are...
Posts: 3,327

09-28-2000, 05:33 PM
DanT Veteran Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Davis, CA Casino cash: $4521711	Hey, did you know that last season Elvis got more 1st-downs from 3rd-down passes than any other QB in the AFC? Here are the final 1999 numbers on the AFC QBs who had more than 270 passing attempts, ranked by 1st-down-conversion percentage. The columns shown are 3rd-down passing-attempts, 3rd-down completions, number that resulted in a 1st-down, same number expressed as a percentage, 3rd-down passer rating, overall passer rating, and QB name. I compiled the data from the Situational Splits available from each player's profile on sportsline.com. 3dA Cp 1D 1Dpct 3dRat Rat Name 154 94 62 39.0% 89.3 81.7 Grbac 151 91 60 38.0% 79.6 90.7 Manning _82 45 32 36.8% 93.6 85.1 Lucas 147 77 61 36.7% 76.0 86.5 Gannon 147 81 57 36.3% 70.5 75.1 Flutie 139 77 53 35.8% 72.2 82.0 Brunell 108 57 41 35.7% 88.8 77.6 Blake 128 74 49 34.8% 73.8 70.6 Harbaugh _94 48 31 32.6% 66.2 78.6 McNair _88 44 30 31.9% 62.7 64.9 Stewart 130 61 46 31.3% 66.5 77.7 Kitna 129 73 43 30.9% 72.9 75.6 Griese 149 73 54 30.7% 76.7 75.6 Bledsoe _98 47 34 30.6% 79.9 81.2 Banks 103 42 31 29.5% 38.7 67.4 Marino 117 56 30 21.9% 40.7 73.2 Couch [This message has been edited by DanT (edited 09-28-2000).]
Posts: 4,224