Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 5

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

NinerDoug · 08-05-2015, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

I'm lost. There are 7 Super Bowl rings between those qb's. Who are the bad ones?

I think the point was that Brees and Manning took a while.

ViperVisor · 08-05-2015, 06:37 PM

Alex Smith was actually top 10 in 3rd down % of passes that ended up being completed for 1st downs.

2011 on...

Sack rate is bad 1st of all because blocking usually wasn't good.
Coaching has something to do with what happens.
49ers were dominating more often than not and played it safe.
Sack rate increased in 2nd half of games.
Harbaugh and co had a clunked up way of doing things. Funny how Kaepernick also got sacked a bunch in '13 and '14.
McNabb also was at the top of the charts for sacks over his time with Reid.

Mother****erJones · 08-05-2015, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bufkin

Amazing that there's still people who have disdain for Alex Smith. In this league, it can be extremely difficult to find an average QB, let alone one like Smith who has an unheard of turnover ratio. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but nobody is. If you rely on an elite running back and a solid defense like the Chiefs do, you really can't ask for much more than what Smith is providing.

We have disdain because he doesn't take enough chances and bails the first chance he gets.

milkman · 08-05-2015, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Alex Smith was actually top 10 in 3rd down % of passes that ended up being completed for 1st downs.

2011 on...

Sack rate is bad 1st of all because blocking usually wasn't good.
Coaching has something to do with what happens.
49ers were dominating more often than not and played it safe.
Sack rate increased in 2nd half of games.
Harbaugh and co had a clunked up way of doing things. Funny how Kaepernick also got sacked a bunch in '13 and '14.
McNabb also was at the top of the charts for sacks over his time with Reid.

When a QB gets sacked 35 or more times in a season, a good portion of those sacks can usually be blamed on the QB.

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-05-2015, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mother****erJones

We have disdain because he doesn't take enough chances and bails the first chance he gets.

You totally missed the point of that.

MagicHef · 08-05-2015, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobBlake

how many games did you guys win when that was happening? How was Cassel playing smart ball by playing catch up all the time?At least smith's way helps brings wins to the table.

They won 10 games and won the division. Are you trying to say that throwing TDs doesn't lead to wins?

ViperVisor · 08-05-2015, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

When a QB gets sacked 35 or more times in a season, a good portion of those sacks can usually be blamed on the QB.

A good portion of any sack total is on a QB.

Smith appears to me over years of watching around avg at how often he is at fault for getting sacked.

You take a player like that and put him in the situations the last 4 years his sack rate will go up.
Mediocre Pass Protection
Mediocre Pass Catchers
Top 5 Defenses
Run the clock
Win the games

The post Bye in 2013 it was pretty good pass pro + having to push for more offense. Sack rate dropped to like 30 a season. Right around avg.

Things happen for a reason or many reasons.

**DaneMcCloud** · 08-05-2015, 07:34 PM

Barring catastrophic injury, 11 wins is this team's floor.

And Sean Smith needs to appeal. Goodell sucks ass.

**Trivers** · 08-05-2015, 07:42 PM

This thread is a Big Q of everything we have read over and over and over from the same group the whole off season.

8 days until pre-season relief can't happen soon enough

Psyko Tek · 08-05-2015, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

till game 6

is this true?
well at least not all season

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

Manziel wasn't in that draft FTR

I know...I was talking about realistic QBs that KC could have drafted. These numbnuts always complain about Smith...but there hasn't been one QB drafted since Smith's arrival..that's been better than him. They just like crying at the moon..

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

No Poe = DEATH

So does jerking off to midget porn with a plastic bag over your head...but somehow you're still breathing.

Reerun_KC · 08-05-2015, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

I don't need a reason to do this.

Love it when you talk dirty. Big tease

Hammock Parties · 08-05-2015, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Barring catastrophic injury, 11 wins is this team's floor.\

Total fantasy.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

Total fantasy.

Team wins 9 last year. Got better at every position that was a weakness last year, dumbass claims two more wins is irrational.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1451379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,921

08-05-2015, 06:37 PM	#62
ViperVisor Veteran Join Date: Mar 2013 Casino cash: $10019798	Alex Smith was actually top 10 in 3rd down % of passes that ended up being completed for 1st downs. 2011 on... Sack rate is bad 1st of all because blocking usually wasn't good. Coaching has something to do with what happens. 49ers were dominating more often than not and played it safe. Sack rate increased in 2nd half of games. Harbaugh and co had a clunked up way of doing things. Funny how Kaepernick also got sacked a bunch in '13 and '14. McNabb also was at the top of the charts for sacks over his time with Reid.
Posts: 1,532

08-05-2015, 07:34 PM	#68
DaneMcCloud Supporter Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Hollywood, CA Casino cash: $10053648	Barring catastrophic injury, 11 wins is this team's floor. And Sean Smith needs to appeal. Goodell sucks ass.
Posts: 88,960

08-05-2015, 07:42 PM	#69
Trivers Always ask 'Why?" Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin Casino cash: $2152400	This thread is a Big Q of everything we have read over and over and over from the same group the whole off season. 8 days until pre-season relief can't happen soon enough
Posts: 2,929