Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 4

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

**Tribal Warfare** · 08-05-2015, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Is there a QB worth a shit next year? Goff looks cool but idk about the rest

Connor Cook/Christian Hackenberg

are the big two

mcaj22 · 08-05-2015, 04:47 PM

we got zero chance at Hackenberg. What a shame. Too good to draft a good QB prospect, too shitty to be a contender. Another offensive lineman/some random defensive player at pick 19 woohoo Chiefs way.

dls6501 · 08-05-2015, 04:59 PM

I didn't read the article, but I disagree with the title of this thread.

I have always argued that Alex Smith's suckitude is VERY difficult to measure. Reason being is, Alex doesn't lose games the conventional way that quarterbacks lose games. Jay Cutler throws 3 interceptions and fumbles in a game. That is very easy to measure his suckitude.

But Alex is different. Alex loses games because of plays he doesn't make. While Cutler loses a game because he throws a backbreaking interception, Alex misses a touchdown pass because he chooses to throw a dump off pass that he deems more safe, and we punt. So while it looks like Alex doesn't do things to make us lose, he does. Its just harder to quantify.

This is the reason Alex still has so many fans. They don't see the plays he misses, because chances are when he misses the gamechanging play, he still completes a pass. Alex's mistakes aren't turnovers, but it can be argued that sometimes they are just as backbreaking.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

You read an article like that and reflect...God, we could have drafted EJ Manuel, Geno Smith...or Johnny Manziel. I mean they were just sitting there for the taking. Missing out on them has set this franchise back YEARS...Dorsey sucks.

Manziel wasn't in that draft FTR

bricks · 08-05-2015, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valiant

Please. Cassel got what 15 tds to bowe in one year? Smith is supposedly better?

they misused bowe. Give hime jump routes. Bowe was never speed. Maclin will probably have his worst statistical season unless he gets targeted like gonzo. Smith does not do that though. I picked them to win 8 games.

Bowe wasn't a fit for this offense and so he had to go.

A lot of us knew he wasn't a receiver that was going to thrive in this offense because he simply didn't have the speed and the separation skills which is a must in the west coast offense. I'm happy he is gone.

Maclin will have his worst statistical season? Ah nope. That's not going to happen. While I don't expect him to have numbers like last year; because this offense is about ball distribution and everybody will get the ball, in no way is he going to have his worst season. I think you're over exaggerating quite a bit.

Chiefs ain't winning 8 games. They're going to win 10 or 11 games. This defense is too good for them to be an 8 win team.

Hammock Parties · 08-05-2015, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bricks

This defense is too good for them to be an 8 win team.

No Poe = DEATH

RobBlake · 08-05-2015, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valiant

Please. Cassel got what 15 tds to bowe in one year? Smith is supposedly better?

they misused bowe. Give hime jump routes. Bowe was never speed. Maclin will probably have his worst statistical season unless he gets targeted like gonzo. Smith does not do that though. I picked them to win 8 games.

how many games did you guys win when that was happening? How was Cassel playing smart ball by playing catch up all the time?At least smith's way helps brings wins to the table.

**Tribal Warfare** · 08-05-2015, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

No Poe = DEATH

till game 6

**J Diddy** · 08-05-2015, 05:28 PM

Frozenchief:

Unable to "Let it Go"

Sweet Daddy Hate · 08-05-2015, 05:43 PM

It's a Connor Cook Empire out there, and we need to enlist.

Sandy Vagina · 08-05-2015, 05:47 PM

So how about Alex Smith? What does everyone think of him?

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-05-2015, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

So how about Alex Smith? What does everyone think of him?

No clue. These threads are rare.

Reerun_KC · 08-05-2015, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Is there a QB worth a shit next year? Goff looks cool but idk about the rest

According to fatty fanbase there never is. No one is ever sold on a QB in the draft. But a RG? ****tards will beat off in the streets.

**notorious** · 08-05-2015, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

****tards will beat off in the streets.

I don't need a reason to do this.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 08-05-2015, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bufkin

Amazing that there's still people who have disdain for Alex Smith. In this league, it can be extremely difficult to find an average QB, let alone one like Smith who has an unheard of turnover ratio. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but nobody is. If you rely on an elite running back and a solid defense like the Chiefs do, you really can't ask for much more than what Smith is providing.

Defeatist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

I don't need a reason to do this.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1451379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,921

08-05-2015, 04:47 PM	#47
mcaj22 MVP Join Date: Feb 2010 Casino cash: $10014454	we got zero chance at Hackenberg. What a shame. Too good to draft a good QB prospect, too shitty to be a contender. Another offensive lineman/some random defensive player at pick 19 woohoo Chiefs way.
Posts: 11,886

08-05-2015, 04:59 PM	#48
dls6501 Veteran Join Date: Jan 2014 Casino cash: $9960375	I didn't read the article, but I disagree with the title of this thread. I have always argued that Alex Smith's suckitude is VERY difficult to measure. Reason being is, Alex doesn't lose games the conventional way that quarterbacks lose games. Jay Cutler throws 3 interceptions and fumbles in a game. That is very easy to measure his suckitude. But Alex is different. Alex loses games because of plays he doesn't make. While Cutler loses a game because he throws a backbreaking interception, Alex misses a touchdown pass because he chooses to throw a dump off pass that he deems more safe, and we punt. So while it looks like Alex doesn't do things to make us lose, he does. Its just harder to quantify. This is the reason Alex still has so many fans. They don't see the plays he misses, because chances are when he misses the gamechanging play, he still completes a pass. Alex's mistakes aren't turnovers, but it can be argued that sometimes they are just as backbreaking.
Posts: 1,430

08-05-2015, 05:28 PM	#54
J Diddy Don't Be A Dick Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Joplin Casino cash: $6807192	Frozenchief: Unable to "Let it Go"
Posts: 33,649

08-05-2015, 05:43 PM	#55
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	It's a Connor Cook Empire out there, and we need to enlist. __________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
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