Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 6

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

Mother****erJones · 08-05-2015, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Barring catastrophic injury, 11 wins is this team's floor.

And Sean Smith needs to appeal. Goodell sucks ass.

I really feel good about this team even without Poe and Smith for awhile. 10 is my floor. We should win 11 and 13 is our ceiling.

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

Team wins 9 last year. Got better at every position that was a weakness last year, dumbass claims two more wins is irrational.

And two of those losses were from bogus calls/no calls/dropped INTs...Cardinals/Raiders. The only 2 games where they were beaten the entire game were Steelers and the 2nd Broncos game. I'm not counting the Titans as KC was in scoring position a lot that game...they actually were against Pittsburgh too..

Pablo · 08-05-2015, 09:22 PM

The floor is eight wins with shit luck and an in cohesive offense. Nine to eleven is likely. Twelve is the craziest I'll dare dream.

If the Broncos stomp our dicks in twice like they have been doing, it's all for naught.

ODESSABRONC · 08-05-2015, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frozenchief

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

I've always said he's a more mobile version of Kyle Orton. Orton has little better arm but both quarterbacks play not to make mistakes rather than to make plays.

**notorious** · 08-05-2015, 09:25 PM

Start 1-3

Win 8 of the next 9, 10 of 12.

Finish 11-5

ODESSABRONC · 08-05-2015, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bufkin

Amazing that there's still people who have disdain for Alex Smith. In this league, it can be extremely difficult to find an average QB, let alone one like Smith who has an unheard of turnover ratio. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but nobody is. If you rely on an elite running back and a solid defense like the Chiefs do, you really can't ask for much more than what Smith is providing.

That sounds like you're lowering the bar. Yes Smith has a good turnover ratio but looking behind that number you find he doesn't throw the ball down field. Wasn't he dead last in throws over 20 yards? He's being paid like a starting quarterback so more should be expected of him than what he's been producing.

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

Start 1-3

Win 8 of the next 9, 10 of 12.

Finish 11-5

I'm going 3-1...with GB being the loss. Denver gets 2 days practice then travel. I cant see how the Broncos running a huddled offense helps them...they have 4 new o-lineman/scheme in Arrowhead noise. That place is going to be loud... and it's going to be their first experience with that level of road noise.

If they beat KC under those conditions..I'll tip my cap to them.

ODESSABRONC · 08-05-2015, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

Start 1-3

Win 8 of the next 9, 10 of 12.

Finish 11-5

Not with schedule way their schedule is laid out.

**notorious** · 08-05-2015, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ODESSABRONC

Not with schedule way their schedule is laid out.

Can I get a translation of this shit?

**Dave Lane** · 08-05-2015, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

According to fatty fanbase there never is. No one is ever sold on a QB in the draft. But a RG? ****tards will beat off in the streets.

Its the damnest thing.

**Dave Lane** · 08-05-2015, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

Can I get a translation of this shit?

Preferably to English.

**Dave Lane** · 08-05-2015, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

Start 1-3

Win 8 of the next 9, 10 of 12.

Finish 11-5

Pull Indy in the 1st round finish 11-6

ThaVirus · 08-05-2015, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Alex Smith was actually top 10 in 3rd down % of passes that ended up being completed for 1st downs.

2011 on...

Sack rate is bad 1st of all because blocking usually wasn't good.

Coaching has something to do with what happens.

49ers were dominating more often than not and played it safe.

Sack rate increased in 2nd half of games.

Harbaugh and co had a clunked up way of doing things. Funny how Kaepernick also got sacked a bunch in '13 and '14.

McNabb also was at the top of the charts for sacks over his time with Reid.

You're the worst

Hammock Parties · 08-05-2015, 10:19 PM

Alex's sack rate has sucked shit 4 years in a row...but it's all on the line!

Discuss Thrower · 08-05-2015, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Pull Indy in the 1st round finish 11-6

Indy is going to straight cake walk into a first round bye.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1451379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,922

08-05-2015, 09:22 PM	#78
Pablo Ultrabanned Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $1849356	The floor is eight wins with shit luck and an in cohesive offense. Nine to eleven is likely. Twelve is the craziest I'll dare dream. If the Broncos stomp our dicks in twice like they have been doing, it's all for naught.
Posts: 40,471

08-05-2015, 09:25 PM	#80
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $2755884	Start 1-3 Win 8 of the next 9, 10 of 12. Finish 11-5
Posts: 83,515

08-05-2015, 10:19 PM	#89
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4540478	Alex's sack rate has sucked shit 4 years in a row...but it's all on the line! __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 278,448