KU KU 15.7% KSU 4.4% Baylor 10.4% TA&M 2.2% MU 1% Texas 0% OSU 0%

teedubya · 03-15-2010, 03:03 PM

Chance of winning the national title, according to 50,000 mock run-throughs of the 2010 NCAA tourney

http://predictionmachine.com/P...racketodds.aspx

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats from the last 30 games (weighted slightly more towards recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.
See the most-likely Predictalated Bracket and Paul Bessire's Bracket Analysis.

Code:

Region Seed Team 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest	1	KU	100.0%	77.4%	57.7%	36.7%	24.4%	15.7%
Midwest	7	Ok St.	40.5%	16.2%	3.0%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
West	2	KSU	100.0%	65.6%	42.9%	23.4%	10.4%	4.4%
East	10	MU	55.4%	28.1%	14.4%	6.3%	2.6%	1.0%
South	3	Baylor	78.1%	70.1%	61.0%	36.1%	20.1%	10.4%
South	5	TA&M	71.7%	59.3%	37.1%	15.4%	6.0%	2.2%
East	8	Texas	47.6%	10.3%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

sedated · 03-15-2010, 03:19 PM

hard to believe Baylor has such good odds.

T-post Tom · 03-15-2010, 03:20 PM

Not according to the KSU fan calling 810 a minute ago. According to him KSU's chances are MUCH better than KU's.

rageeumr · 03-15-2010, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ari Chi3fs

East 10 MU 55.4% 28.1% 14.4% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%

So you're tellin' me there's a chance!

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 03-15-2010, 03:27 PM

Your link isn't working.

HC_Chief · 03-15-2010, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

Your link isn't working.

http://predictionmachine.com/Predict...acketodds.aspx

thanks for the link Ari.... interesting stuff

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 03-15-2010, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HC_Chief

http://predictionmachine.com/Predict...acketodds.aspx

thanks for the link Ari.... interesting stuff

Sweet. Thanks.

CoMoChief · 03-15-2010, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated

hard to believe Baylor has such good odds.

Have you seen their POS region?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they made the Elite 8

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 03-15-2010, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated

hard to believe Baylor has such good odds.

Seriously. Better than anyone but KU and Syracuse? Umm, was the developer of this site a Baylor alum?

teedubya · 03-15-2010, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

Seriously. Better than anyone but KU and Syracuse? Umm, was the developer of this site a Baylor alum?

That bracket is essentially a cake walk. Only Duke is the real threat, IMO.

HC_Chief · 03-15-2010, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts

Seriously. Better than anyone but KU and Syracuse? Umm, was the developer of this site a Baylor alum?

lol

"One of the keys to the Predictalator is its use of strength-of-schedule-adjusted numbers. Not only is it important to know what the players and teams have done, but against whom they have done it."

Due to SOS-adjustment Big XII teams will score higher this year. It is the strongest conference at the top.

HC_Chief · 03-15-2010, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ari Chi3fs

That bracket is essentially a cake walk. Only Duke is the real threat, IMO.

I think you underestimate aTm and 'Nova.

JMO

teedubya · 03-15-2010, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HC_Chief

I think you underestimate aTm and 'Nova.

JMO

aTm is a well coached team, but Baylor has way more talent. Nova has lost something like 5 of last 7, not exactly a strength going into the big dance.

HC_Chief · 03-15-2010, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ari Chi3fs

aTm is a well coached team, but Baylor has way more talent. Nova has lost something like 5 of last 7, not exactly a strength going into the big dance.

I agree, but Nova is also loaded and well-coached. That team can be dominant when it is on its game.

IMO aTm is Duke's worst nightmare: a well-coached team that scraps like muh'fuhs. They have size and solid guard play (I'm a big fan of Sloan).

aTm -v- Baylor is a very real possibility; I have 'Nova beating Baylor in a brutal game, then edging aTm with Scottie Reynolds carrying the team.

I would not be surprised to see Baylor or aTm win that bracket.

Mr. Plow · 03-15-2010, 04:06 PM

#1 Seeds -

KU: 15.7%
Syracuse: 10.6%
Duke: 10.2%
UK: 8.0%

03-15-2010, 03:03 PM
teedubya Most Valuable Poster Join Date: Oct 2003 Casino cash: $9480002	KU 15.7% KSU 4.4% Baylor 10.4% TA&M 2.2% MU 1% Texas 0% OSU 0% Chance of winning the national title, according to 50,000 mock run-throughs of the 2010 NCAA tourney http://predictionmachine.com/P...racketodds.aspx The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats from the last 30 games (weighted slightly more towards recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round. See the most-likely Predictalated Bracket and Paul Bessire's Bracket Analysis. Code: Region Seed Team 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ. Midwest 1 KU 100.0% 77.4% 57.7% 36.7% 24.4% 15.7% Midwest 7 Ok St. 40.5% 16.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% West 2 KSU 100.0% 65.6% 42.9% 23.4% 10.4% 4.4% East 10 MU 55.4% 28.1% 14.4% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0% South 3 Baylor 78.1% 70.1% 61.0% 36.1% 20.1% 10.4% South 5 TA&M 71.7% 59.3% 37.1% 15.4% 6.0% 2.2% East 8 Texas 47.6% 10.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Posts: 36,652

03-15-2010, 03:20 PM	#3
T-post Tom Threepeat! Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Milk/Honey/Gazland Casino cash: $4547293	Not according to the KSU fan calling 810 a minute ago. According to him KSU's chances are MUCH better than KU's. __________________ You seem nice! Last edited by T-post Tom; 03-15-2010 at 03:27 PM..
Posts: 20,234

03-15-2010, 04:06 PM	#15
Mr. Plow In Search of a Life Join Date: Dec 2005 Casino cash: $1927391	#1 Seeds - KU: 15.7% Syracuse: 10.6% Duke: 10.2% UK: 8.0%
Posts: 30,811