Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed.

[Hammock Parties]

Per this very insightful breakdown.

http://overthecap.com/estimating-the...r-dwayne-bowe/

It's long but here's the meat:

Comparable Players

Most likely Bowe has two players in mind when looking for a new deal- Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson, who both signed new contracts in 2012. I also want to look at the performance of two older players, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, who both signed new contracts back in 2010. The table below compares the 3 year averages of each player prior to their extension:

These are 3 year averages for D. Jackson and Bowe but only 2 year averages for V. Jackson since he held out all but 5 games of the 2010 season.

The numbers are adjusted for games missed to not inflate the performance of the others on the team when the player in question was injured.

Now we can see how favorably Bowe compares to Jackson. Bowe was a more valuable player to the Chiefs than Jackson was to the Chargers and perhaps that is why the Chiefs are rumored to now want to keep him in the fold.

I think the most striking stat is the interception rate which pointed to Jackson seeing a lot of passes attempted for him getting picked off compared to Bowe. These numbers tell me that Bowe is a clear number 1 and was doing some pretty impressive things in Kansas City with almost no talent around him.

Based on the comparative performance I am going to push and say on average Bowe is worth about 9.5% more than Jackson, which is pretty much the upper bound of his deal. That would equate to a deal worth a little below $12.2 million a year.

Now I don’t think that will happen. Based on the same analysis Vincent was about 33% more valuable than DeSean but overall his deal ended up 14.5% higher in APY. Using the same adjustment Bowe should earn a realistic deal worth 4.2% more than Jackson, equating to about $11.58 million a season.

[YayMike]

GET IT DONE MEN!

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Brock

OMG THEY'RE OVERPAYING IT HURTS GOD IT HURTS

6 year, 39 mil. NOT A PENNY MORE /truefans

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

bowe gon get paaaaaaayyyyyyyyehd. w00t!
Posted via Mobile Device

[ChiefRocka]

Its the GENO/BOWE SHOW !!!!

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

ya daaaaaaaaaammmmmmmn right.
Posted via Mobile Device

[O.city]

I wouldn't get all excited about it quit yet.

[Brock]

They had to lay off Breaston and Boss because of Bowe's greed! Way to go, you selfish chump!

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

OMG HE DROPZ EVERYTHING THIS NEW REGIME SUCKS!/dumbass true fan
Posted via Mobile Device

[Rugby Thompson]

Is this enough money to fund Bowe's drug addiction and thug lifestyle?

[Hammock Parties]

Literally had some returd on my FB complain that $11 million a year was too much money.

[O.city]

If it were Marc Boerigter, they'd be fine with it.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

Is this enough money to fund Bowe's drug addiction and thug lifestyle?

I certainly hope so.
Posted via Mobile Device

[HotCarl]

Good. Hope he can fix his dropsies!

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Spott

So does weed make him drop every other pass thrown right to him?

Have you ever caught a pass?

Have you ever caught a pass ON WEED?

[Nightfyre]

If we sign Bowe:
1) We will either sign or franchise Albert.
2) We are drafting Geno Smith.