Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 99

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

**gblowfish** · 09-26-2013, 12:46 PM

Billy Butler, 2015:

cookster50 · 09-26-2013, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

I'm wondering if walking away from Santana might be the smart thing to do? maybe even Hoch (if they resign him) could step into that slot?

Are you trolling? Do you seriously want to see Hoch start again, ever? He is a failure as a starter. No, no, no, no, no, no. Do not want.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 09-26-2013, 12:54 PM

Hochevar is 30 years old. He is the same age as Ervin Santana... Only a year younger than Shields.

There is no more "development" to be had.

He is what he is, and that is not a starting Pitcher.

BigCatDaddy · 09-26-2013, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

Hochevar is 30 years old. He is the same age as Ervin Santana... Only a year younger than Shields.

There is no more "development" to be had.

He is what he is, and that is not a starting Pitcher.

Wut?? PB said he's the next Grienke, just give him a shot again

siberian khatru · 09-26-2013, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockChalk

The numbers for Moose are pretty damn close to the numbers Hosmer put up in 2012. So let's hope that he makes the same "jump" that Hoz did

Except that Hosmer already had a track record of success, his rookie season.

Moose has had Sept. 2011 and the first two months of 2012.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 09-26-2013, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Except that Hosmer already had a track record of success, his rookie season.

Moose has had Sept. 2011 and the first two months of 2012.

If Moose would have simply produced what he had last season, I would have taken that this year. he had a 2.9 WAR in 2012. He hit Twice as many HR's and drove in almost twice as many runs.

He's produced somewhat in the past. Granted it wasn't the best of seasons... but think how we could have ended this season had he simply sustained his "meh" from last year.

We'd probably be staring at a wildcard. That is just how truly horrible his season was for us.

Hell to take it a step further, if any one of Billy, Alex, Alcides or Moose had simply performed equal to what they had done last year.. we are staring at a wildcard... any ONE of them.

Having all 4 of them regress so greatly at the same time was enough to squander our best opportunity in two decades.

All the blame is not on Moose here.

Archie F. Swin · 09-26-2013, 01:33 PM

just crunching some more numbers...

Against the top 6 AL teams this year KC is 34-30 with losing records v CLE and OAK and a split with TEX

Against the bottom 6 AL teams (with 4 more to play) KC is 34-26 with 15 wins v MIN, with losing records against TOR and LAA.

**ChiTown** · 09-26-2013, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Billy Butler, 2015:

BlackHelicopters · 09-26-2013, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Billy Butler, 2015:

Could happen in 2014

Nightfyre · 09-26-2013, 02:06 PM

It will be interesting to see what sorts of trades we swing this year. We will probably trade two right handed relievers. I mean, we have Coleman/Hochevar/Davis/Crow/Herrera and we can't carry that many righty relievers. I imagine the pen will look something like this if we just trade Hoch:

Long Relief: Smith
LOOGY: Joseph
ROOGY: Coleman
Middle Relief: Crow
Middle Relief: Collins
Middle Relief: Davis
Setup: Herrera
Closer: Holland

However, that puts us at 13 pitchers. We can't carry five outfielders and 13 pitchers.

**alnorth** · 09-26-2013, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Santana has a losing record. He's 9-10 on 32 starts. Is that good enough to throw $10 mill or more at him for the next four to five years?

Uhhh... Santana is gonna get freakin PAID after the year he had. Not his fault that he pitched for a bad offense. We'll be lucky to re-sign him.

**alnorth** · 09-26-2013, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Can you link me to this information?

You can calculate it.

Expected winning % = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

Right now, that is .532, which over 158 games is about 84 wins.

**ChiTown** · 09-26-2013, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

It will be interesting to see what sorts of trades we swing this year. We will probably trade two right handed relievers. I mean, we have Coleman/Hochevar/Davis/Crow/Herrera and we can't carry that many righty relievers. I imagine the pen will look something like this if we just trade Hoch:

Long Relief: Smith
LOOGY: Joseph
ROOGY: Coleman
Middle Relief: Crow
Middle Relief: Collins
Middle Relief: Davis
Setup: Herrera
Closer: Holland

However, that puts us at 13 pitchers. We can't carry five outfielders and 13 pitchers.

I have NO faith in Herrera as a set up guy. None. I would rather go with Coleman and send Herrera off to Siberia.

**alnorth** · 09-26-2013, 02:16 PM

MLB has announced that next year will be Bud Selig's last. He'll retire in January 2015.

Nightfyre · 09-26-2013, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown

I have NO faith in Herrera as a set up guy. None. I would rather go with Coleman and send Herrera off to Siberia.

Herrera will bounce back. His fastball was filthy when he wasn't overthrowing it and his new little breaking ball definitely adds an element to contend with. All that topped off with a good change of pace changeup. The stuff is there.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1570308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,143

09-26-2013, 12:46 PM	#1471
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17646178 VARSITY	Billy Butler, 2015:
Posts: 40,839

09-26-2013, 12:54 PM	#1473
Fansy the Famous Bard I'm with the Banned Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $2196440	Hochevar is 30 years old. He is the same age as Ervin Santana... Only a year younger than Shields. There is no more "development" to be had. He is what he is, and that is not a starting Pitcher. __________________ Hi.
Posts: 6,046

09-26-2013, 01:33 PM	#1477
Archie F. Swin This is the way Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Wichita Falls, Texas Casino cash: $9975673	just crunching some more numbers... Against the top 6 AL teams this year KC is 34-30 with losing records v CLE and OAK and a split with TEX Against the bottom 6 AL teams (with 4 more to play) KC is 34-26 with 15 wins v MIN, with losing records against TOR and LAA. __________________ "No Two People Will Do It The Same, You got It Down...When You Appear to Be In Pain!"
Posts: 11,800

09-26-2013, 02:06 PM	#1480
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $3478849	It will be interesting to see what sorts of trades we swing this year. We will probably trade two right handed relievers. I mean, we have Coleman/Hochevar/Davis/Crow/Herrera and we can't carry that many righty relievers. I imagine the pen will look something like this if we just trade Hoch: Long Relief: Smith LOOGY: Joseph ROOGY: Coleman Middle Relief: Crow Middle Relief: Collins Middle Relief: Davis Setup: Herrera Closer: Holland However, that puts us at 13 pitchers. We can't carry five outfielders and 13 pitchers.
Posts: 18,562

09-26-2013, 02:16 PM	#1484
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57166239	MLB has announced that next year will be Bud Selig's last. He'll retire in January 2015. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130